europe summit

 EUROPE
GRI
SUMMIT
2015
Q&A
INTERVIEW WITH REAL ESTATE LEADERS ON :
European Real Estate
GRI Europe Summit
and France GRI program
French Real Estate
GEORGII IVANOV
CHRISTOPHER GARBE
MICHAEL SHIELDS
MD Real Estate
PENSION FUND BLAGOSOSTOYANIE
Russia
CEO
GARBE GROUP
Germany
Head of REF Western Europe,
UK, USA & Structured Products
ING
UK
MICHEL VAUCLAIR
Chairman
OPG Commercial RE Europe
Luxembourg
CÉDRIC DUJARDIN
RONNY GOTTHARDT
ANTOINE PAUL
Head of France
DEUTSCHE BANK
France
Managing Director
GLOBAL REAL ESTATE INSTITUTE
UK
Director
GLOBAL REAL ESTATE INSTITUTE
France
As GRI Europe Summit and co-located France GRI Real estate meetings are approaching,
as a preview, we are happy to share the interviews we conducted with the participating industry leaders.
On 10, 11 September, the 18th annual GRI Europe Summit will be gathering the most senior level real estate investors, developers and lenders in Europe
and will be focusing on pan European issues, opportunities and trends in Paris.
For more information, visit: www.globalrealestate.org/europe2015
Q&A
Given the current mix of low interest rates and wall of cash:
what is your outlook for European Real Estate over the next 12 – 24 months?
Georgii Ivanov
Christopher Garbe
Michael Shields
Michel Vauclair
Investment activity will grow with larger
focus on well-performing secondary
markets such as Munich, Madrid or even
higher yielding markets such as Southern
and emerging Europe. Abundance of cash
and low interest rates create ample
opportunity in hotel investment in
particular. Softening of interest rates and
underwriting standards will revamp the
European CMBS market and this will
additionally spur up the real estate
investment growth in Europe.
Prices will increase further. Due to cheap
euro rates and low interest rates.
I’m bullish, outside of London – new
supply remains constrained. Core and
Core + assets are seeing plenty of equity
and debt capital. Value-add financing is
becoming more available and at lower
margins. Generally vacancy rates and
rental rates are stable to improving. The
Euro drop should help economic activity
and attract investment.
The traditional markets such as London
and Paris have indeed become very
challenging in terms of pricing and the
‘’wall of cash’’ is certainly a factor
influencing the pricing in these two cities.
On the other hand, the rest of the
European capital cities and the regional UK
and French markets remain accessible.
Which countries in Europe will provide the best investment opportunities in 2015, and why?
Georgii Ivanov
Christopher Garbe
Michael Shields
Michel Vauclair
Countries that have been previously
overlooked because of economic and
political uncertainty will regain interest by
offering higher returns in improved
economic conditions. Here we could
mention Spain, Portugal and Ireland in
particular. Also, large economic centers of
Germany are expected to attract
investment lured by combination of low
risk and strong potential for value
appreciation during next 12 months.
Germany will remain top of the list due to
strong economic background and
extremely low lending margins compare to
other European countries.
Generally, I still like Southern Europe. Cost
of debt is much cheaper than it was, yields
are higher, no new supply, plenty of room
left in the cycle – you just need to be
patient.
There is no direct answer to the question
as most investors first define their
investment strategies which as a
consequence define the countries/markets
where they invest. However, It remains
true that in order to catch the best
investment opportunities, market
intelligence, speed and execution proven
track record are key factors.
Join Christopher, Michael, Georgii and Michel at the upcoming GRI Europe Summit in Paris on 10-11 September to further discuss
these topics, and more, amongst fellow investors, developers, property companies and lenders.
See who’s participating and more topics of discussions.
Q&A
Direct vs indirect investing:
Is there a clear advantage to either and is finding the right partners creating the most value?
Georgii Ivanov
Christopher Garbe
I think this entirely depends on the
business model. There is no clear cut
advantages of either investing method in
front of the other.
Its depending on the asset class. In the
standard asset classes direct investment
can make sense. However in the more
specialized asset classes indirect
investment is more favorable due to
specialized knowledge of the expert asset
manager. Specialised Asset Managers are
better in sourcing a deal
Michel Vauclair
pipeline, picking the right deal in a tight
market and are better in dealing with
problems.
Both are good as direct investments means
full control of the asset strategy but is
limited by in-house competencies while
indirect allows broader horizon and
diversification but brings constraints in
strategical decisions. I consider that the
choice of competent asset investor/
managers is adequate.
With bank lending still constrained, what significance does alternative lending play?
Georgii Ivanov
Christopher Garbe
Michael Shields
Michel Vauclair
Alternative lending definitely opens up
more opportunities for investing in riskier
high-yielding locations that are often
overlooked by big bank underwriters.
However, bank lending would still remain
the backbone of the lending industry.
There are almost no more constraints in
the German lending market. In other
European countries there is a good
opportunity for alternative lenders to do
good deals in off the beaten track markets
if they are lending against secure income
streams.
I see alternative lending playing a needed
role in mispriced secondary locations – stuff
that the banks won’t touch.
Currently in most European markets, I do
not see bank lending constraints.
On another note, whom are you looking forward to meet at GRI Europe Summit this year?
Michael Shields
Michel Vauclair
Foreign investors and their Asset managers!
Like-minded long term investors in order
to consider larger tickets in selected
markets.
Join Christopher, Michael, Georgii and Michel at the upcoming GRI Europe Summit in Paris on 10-11 September to further discuss
these topics, and more, amongst fellow investors, developers, property companies and lenders.
See who’s participating and more topics of discussions.
Q&A
Interview with Cédric Dujardin
Taux de rendements qui se resserrent, économie
morose, Où voyez-vous les grands défis cette
année?
Paris, encore Paris, toujours Paris, quelles
opportunités voyez-vous sur le projet du Grand
Paris.
Je pense que le grand défi du moment repose sur l’écart
considérable qui se creuse entre un marché de
l’investissement euphorique dans lequel chaque trimestre
qui passe voit les taux se compresser de pratiquement 25
bips tandis que le marché locatif semble toujours aussi
tendu et le taux de vacance difficilement se résorber. Une
petite réserve toutefois sur le marché locatif des immeubles
de qualité où un frémissement commence à se faire sentir.
Nous sommes donc particulièrement attentif au suivi de
nos locataires et de leurs contraintes sur nos actifs sous
gestion. Sur l’investissement, nous nous efforçons de ne pas
perdre de vue les fondamentaux immobiliers moins
sensibles aux effets de cycle.
Là encore, nous sommes vigilants aux contraintes des
utilisateurs. De belles opportunités vont naître du Grand
Paris mais il ne faut pas oublier de rester dans un espacetemps raisonnable. Même un investisseur long-terme ne se
projette pas en se disant qu’il y aura une nouvelle station
de métro dans 10 ans. Le plus grand intérêt du grand Paris
selon moi serait de faire bouger les frontières intellectuelles
du fameux code postal parisien. Paris ne peut plus se
réduire à l’intra-muros qui est beaucoup trop petit en
comparaison de ses grandes rivales mondiales, à
commencer par Londres.
Régions, marchés de niches, logistiques, où se
trouvent les nouvelles opportunités ?
Comme en 2005, partout ! Nous regardons des dossiers en
région et en logistique sur lesquels nous pouvons encore
trouver des rendements suffisants. Nous sommes toutefois
extrêmement sélectifs afin de s’assurer de la résilience du
cash-flow dans ce cas là. Nous aimons bien les portefeuilles
également même si nous ne sommes pas les seuls.
Quels sont vos principaux objectifs au GRI France
cette année?
Prendre encore et toujours le pouls du marché. Valider nos
stratégies ou les faire évoluer.
Rejoignez Cédric lors du prochain GRI France – Co localisé avec le GRI Europe Summit – à Paris les 10 & 11 Septembre prochains afin de discuter de ces différents sujets et bien d’autres encore
avec l’ensemble des plus hauts dirigeants des sociétés d’investissements, banques et promoteurs immobiliers.
Plus d’informations sur nos participants & sujets de discussions.
Q&A
Interview with Ronny Gotthardt
GRI Europe Summit is a private meeting amongst senior level real estate investors, developers and lenders active in Europe. That includes large retail and hotel groups and
major corporate tenants. We have been gathering for the last 18 years in Paris and providing an essential platform to informally meet, discuss, challenge and - last but not
least - identify opportunities and deliver business.
What makes the event different to the other real
estate investment events?
The formula is very simple: The quality of those present and
seniority is the key to have open and targeted discussions.
The other factor is the GRI format. The event is without
speakers or panels, more like a closed door, private meeting.
The essence is to create an environment making it easy for
people to connect, not just listen. Business is built on
relations, unearthing these opportunities and this is what GRI
caters to specifically. Getting to know the other is what
matters, undeniably there is some learning in there as well,
but it’s secondary to our members. And there is no better
way than be there and speak up.
This will be GRI Europe Summit’s 18th annual
event. Are there any changes attendees should
expect this year?
Let me answer with a question I always ask our members:
What matters to you? In a long chain of answers, the number
one priority is generating opportunities, sustainable business.
Each year is different, as the business environment, the
economic landscape changes so quickly. The themes and the
mix of people goes with the flow, what challenges are out
there, that weren’t there last year?
The agenda, with over 40 discussion topics, is created out of
many conversations with industry leaders, this way ensuring
relevant issues are up there to talk about. From the big
overview to the nitty gritty of everyday activities, some
discussions are small and specific, others are wider and
challenge opinions, trends, etc. Also following a successful
first edition last year, France GRI (which is collocated with GRI
Europe Summit), has grown in scale and will cover 10
discussions dedicated exclusively to French real estate.
In addition, we will have a hugely interesting talk on the
future needs of space.
Who will be at the event in Paris this year?
GRI Europe has a bit of history, which is beneficial in terms of
reputation and what to expect. Main constituency over the
years are investors, investment managers, lenders and
developers. In terms of numbers, we expect around 400 this
year, from 30 different countries, investors from all over
Europe, many American groups, some Middle Eastern
investors.
To drop a few names, decision makers from Colony Capital,
Ivanhoé Cambridge, LaSalle, TIAA Henderson, Cerberus, Deka
Immobilien, Oxford Property, ADIA, Corestate, Benson Elliot,
Blackstone, Carlyle, H.I.G., Goldman Sachs, will be there, but
also many others. Too long to list here, but available to view
on our site.
What are going to be the main themes that will be
discussed at the event this year?
GRI Europe Summit will be full on. There is one underlying
theme: where to find and how to create value!
We have segmented this rich agenda, in to core markets,
opportunistic investments, financing and capital markets and
For more information about the event and how to participate visit:
www.globalrealestate.org/Europe2015
asset management streams. Means there will be a focus
discussion on all core and non-core regions in Europe, from
the UK to CEE; Sectors - mainstream as well as niche; Debt
markets & alternative financing; and different Asset
Management aspects. Again, check out the details on the
website, and don’t forget, we are always interested to hear
about new or additional ideas.
What do you think is the sentiment towards
European real estate?
That’s exactly what we want to find out at the September
meeting. Europe gets its share in publicity, mainly driven by
crisis scenarios, but it’s fair to say that investors have been
widely ignorant of the political charades being played. Today
you get the whole spectrum of opinions, fairly balanced. The
doomsayers as well as those advocating a continuation in the
near future at least. As long as monetary stimulus continues, I
tend to agree with the latter more, although the question is
open how far this is cause for concern in itself. We are, after
all, operating in an unprecedented low interest environment,
with the distortion that comes with it and that will be
adjusted. The questions are: When will that happen,
how do prepare?
The volatility in equity and bond markets we have seen
recently is likely to further strengthen investors’ appetite for
safe haven opportunities. Over the last 12 months a lot of
money has been raised globally to invest in European real
estate, so the global sentiment seems very strong at the
moment, partly driven by the risks investors are facing
elsewhere.
Q&A
Interview with Antoine Paul
Les 10 & 11 Septembre prochains se tiendra la 18ème édition du GRI Europe Summit & 2nd édition du France GRI –
Qui est concerné par cet évènement? Qui sera présent ? Que peut-on en espérer? Antoine Paul, directeur de l’évènement nous répond.
Qu’est-ce que le France GRI & GRI Europe Summit?
table et c’est ce qui fait son succès aujourd’hui.
Le GRI Europe Summit est un évènement de networking
regroupant les plus hauts dirigeants des sociétés
d’investissements, banques et promoteurs immobiliers du
secteur real estate Européen pendant deux jours. Pour sa
18ème édition, le GRI Europe Summit propose un moyen
unique pour les leaders de l’industrie de l’immobilier
professionnel de se rencontrer et d’échanger sur l’évolution du
marché mais aussi d’identifier les différents partenariats et
opportunités possibles entre chacun des acteurs présents.
Après le succès de sa première Edition, le France GRI, colocalisé avec le GRI Europe Summit revient avec un
programme composé de 10+ discussions dédiées uniquement
au marché Français de l’immobilier commercial.
Cette année sera le 18ème GRI Europe Summit et le
2nd France GRI. Y-a-t’il des changements auxquelles
les participants doivent s’attendre pour cette année?
Qui sera présent lors de votre évènement?
Qu’est-ce qui vous différencie des autres évènements dédiés au Real Estate?
Le GRI est un évènement diffèrent de ce que vous avez pu déjà
voir. Il n’y a ni estrade, ni discours, ni présentation. L’un des
secrets pour une entreprise qui souhaite se développer réside
sur les relations de ses dirigeants et l’identification rapide des
opportunités. Le GRI est là pour aider nos membres à répondre
à ce besoin. C’est un évènement décontracté où les
participants sont répartis en petits groupes autour d’un sujet
où tout le monde peut participer s’il le souhaite. Il n’y a aucun
discours à préparer, nous privilégions la spontanéité. Chaque
discussion est composée d’un Président modérateur ainsi que
plusieurs Co-Présidents.
Ce format vous permet de créer des liens bien plus forts que
lors d’un simple échange de carte de visite sur un coin de
Chaque évènement est différent tout simplement parce qu’il
évolue avec les tendances du marché. Les problématiques des
discussions sont générées à partir de nos échanges avec les
différents dirigeants désirant prendre part au GRI ce qui nous
permet de mettre en avant des thématiques pertinentes sur
l’état actuel du marché. Cette année par exemple, un accent
particulier sera mis sur les opportunités d’investissements liées
aux différents projets urbains ainsi que sur les taux de
rendements qui ont tendance à se resserrer.
Le GRI est un évènement uniquement dédiés aux hauts
dirigeants des sociétés d’investissements, banques et
promoteurs immobiliers. Au vu du nombre important de
personnes déjà confirmés, nous attendons plus de 450
participants cette année venant de plus de 30 pays différents
avec une majorité de personne couvrant la France,
l’Allemagne, le Royaume-Uni et le Benelux. Parmi les hauts
dirigeants qui nous ont déjà confirmé leur présence, nous
comptons, entre autres des entreprises telles que Colony
Capital, Ivanhoe Cambridge Europe, LaSalle Investment
Management, TIAA Henderson Immobilier, ING, Morgan
Stanley, Altarea Cogedim, AXA Real Estate, Blackstone, Carlyle
Group, Oxford Properties Group, DTZ Investors, Amundi, CBRE
Global Investors, et bien d’autres encore. La liste des
participants s’agrandit de jour en jour.
Quelles vont être les principaux thèmes qui seront
abordés lors de l’évènement cette année?
Les GRI Europe & France Summit pourra compter sur 45+
discussions couvrant l’ensemble classes d’actifs (résidentiel,
bureaux, marchés de niches, retail etc.), les principaux marchés
(Allemagne, France, Royaume Uni, Pays nordiques, Benelux,
Italie, etc.) mais aussi les nouvelles opportunités
d’investissement, le financement de façon général et bien
d’autres sujets encore. Vous pouvez dès à présent retrouver sur
notre site internet la liste des discussions programmes pour
cette année ainsi que la liste des participants, qui est
actualisées tous les jours.
Quel est votre sentiment sur le marché de
l’immobilier français?
Les investissements immobiliers sont à la hausse depuis 3 ans
bien que l’on constate une diminution des investissements
étrangers depuis quelques années. Les taux d’emprunts
historiquement bas soutiennent l’investissement, ce qui est
une bonne chose pour le développement du secteur,
cependant il reste toujours une disproportion des
investissements entre la région parisienne et le reste de la
France. Je pense qu’il y aura une attention toute particulière
sur l’écart entre le marché de l’investissement qui se porte
bien et un marché du locative qui peine à se développer.
Affaire à suivre…
For more information about the event and how to participate visit:
www.globalrealestate.org/Europe2015