contents - The Geneva Association
Transcription
contents - The Geneva Association
13 September 1992 nn13.doc CONTENTS page EDITORIAL 1 GUEST EDITORIAL 2 REPORTS FROM MAJOR CONFERENCES ON RISK MANAGEMENT 5 MISCELLANEOUS INFORMATION AND PREVENTION NEWS 6 BOOKS, PUBLICATIONS, ARTICLES AND PAPERS RECEIVED 10 PAST CONFERENCES 12 1992 FUTURE CONFERENCES 1992/1993 14 NEW RESEARCH PROGRAMMES ON RISK MANAGEMENT ISSUES 16 NEW COURSES ON RISK ISSUES 17 SUMMARY OF THE M.O.R.E.·PROGRAMME (Management of Risks in Engineering) OF THE GENEVA ASSOCIAnON 18 CONFERENCES SPONSORED BY THE GENEVA ASSOCIATION January 1992 - 1993 19 Editor: Walter R. Stahel Geneva, September 21, 1992 printout September 21,199211:14 AM rm 13 EDITORIAL This copy of the Risk Management Newsletter introduces a new feature. Leading experts in the field of Risk Management are asked to write a short article on a subject of their choice, in either English, German of French. Summaries of the 'Guest' Editorial' .Will be provided in the two other languages, for the convenience of our readers. We hope to continue this new feature in the coming issues of this newsletter, with authors from different countries, in order to 'expose' our readers to a variety of experts and their personal opinion on risk management. In order to make it easier for our readers who are not familiar with that language, we also'provide an extensive summary in German and English. Our first guest editor is Monsieur Fran~ois Settembrino, President of AEAI, Association Europeenne des Assures de l'Industrie (European Risk Management Association), Rue Montoyer 51, B-l040 Bruxellesj Belgium. The text gives the opinion of its author only. Die deutsche Zusammenfassung findet sich auf Seite 4. SUMMARY OF THE GUEST EDITORIAL "Is prevention cheaper than cure ?" In his book The Management of Industrial Risks' (1), A. Borghesi shows that a clear distinction between loss prevention measures aimed at human or technical factors is impossible. In order to answer the question ''/s prevention cheaper than cure?" we would need data and an objectivity that we do not have. Nevertheless, authorities and experts seem to agree on the necessity of prevention. In the editorial of the March 92 issue of this Newsletter, many examples that support this view have been presented, including a new initiative by the Swiss Chemical industry. ¥: Maquet (2) goes beyond the ideas of Borghesi. He regards risk as an uncertain future event which, as an idea, already disturbs the mind of the individual. 1 In order to gain clarity, the guest editor suggests the following differentiation: (a) objective loss prevention with convincing results This is feasible in cases of high frequency, such as polio, even if we still have to chose the best prevention, e.g. 'dead' or 'living' vaccines. < • (b) subjective loss prevention without measurable results In cases of isolated, potentially catastrophic events, the economic feasibility of prevention is difficult to prove. If nothing happens, prevention causes only higher costs; if things go wrong, a disaster can often not be avoided despite preventive measures. This kind of prevention can still be justified as it reduces .the uncertainty involved. (c) mandatory prevention by law and norms The objectives of these measures are often mixed up with those of objective or subjective prevention. Instead of equipping workers with ear protection gear, for example, the noise level of a machine could be reduced. The success of such a measure could easily be verified; it will be safer but also more expensive - at least in the short term. (d) loss prevention as 'shock absorber' A company can be paralyzed by a unforeseen event, e.g. the kidnapping of the CEO, or a disaster such as Bhopal. Only if all the separate parts of a company have prepared themselves for such an event can they hope to cope with it. This training is a regular routine for e.g. pilots; and it normally helps to cope better even in emergencies other than the one envisaged. CONCLUSION This type of differentiation according to prevention measures, should help to show the fallacy of a frequently heard misconception: ''/ only invest in prevention if it pays': However, common sense has never reasoned this way. ''Prevention is cheaper than cure" includes all kind of different types of prevention, without clear distinction; isn't this the better way to do it ? (1) (2) Borghesi, Antonio (1985) The Management ofIndustrial Risks; Padova-Cedam. Maquet, Yves (1991) Insurance Premiums to finance risks (p. 132); Bruy/ant, Bruxelles. 2 GUEST EDITORIAL I "IS PREVENTION CHEAPER THAN CURE ?" Dans son livre "La Gestione dei Rischi di Azienda" (1), Antonio Borghesi considere que, quel que soit Ie programme de preventi9.:~. mis en place dans une entreprise, on ne peut jamais faire de bilan entre les aspects humains et psychologiques d'une part, et les aspects plus directement techniques... Pour repondre a la question posee "Prevenir vaut-il mieux que guerir?" il faudrait pouvoir etablir de maniere peremptoire, c'est-a-dire chiffres en main, que des couts de prevention sont fmancierement defendables. Outre que ce genre de calcul me parait particulierement presomptueux, il ne faut pas oublier que I'observateur humain apportera Ie poids subjectif de sa 'propre vision, ce qui rejoint I'ambigulte soulignee par Antonio Borghesi. A trop vouloir prouver, on fmit par ne plus rien prouver du tout. Or, a des degres divers, tout Ie monde, y compris les autorites, semble persuade qu'il faut prevenir. L'editorial de mars 1992 de la presente publication en souligne I'importance et donne de nombreux exemples, dont celui des Industries Chimiques en Suisse n'est pas Ie moindre et particulierement ambitieux. 11 ne vise pas moins qu'un enseignement obligatoire a I'egard des etudiants en Sciences Chimiques et Environnementales. Esperons que cet exemple sera suivi dans les autres disciplines et que Ie Risk Management fera partie du bagage intellectuel et scientifique de tout un chacun dans un avenir proche. Yves Maquet dans son dernier livre va plus loin qu'Antonio Borghesi : "Le risque, dit-il, est un evenement futur et incertain, dont I'idee qu'il puisse se realiser perturbe Ie climat de securite de quelqu'un" (2). Comment prevenir quelque chose d'aussi subjectif ? En essayant d'y voir plus clair, nous pourrions serier la ou les preventions possibles. a) La prevention ••. avec resultats probants, ou la prevention objective. Lorsque la societe s'est trouvee en presence des ravages de la polio, il lui a fallu de la patience et de l'imagination. De la patience, pour decouvrir I'origine de la maladie - et les milieux medicaux et scientifiques ont eu fort a faire - et de I'imagination pour traiter la maladie. Avant que l'origine exacte de la maladie, donc bien avant que I'idee rm13 d'un vaccin soit consideree comme valable - il a fallu inventer toute une machinerie - les poumons d'acier, comme on les appelait - et d'autres appareillages. La prevention provisoire a porte sur la frequentation des bassins de natation. Lorsqu'un vaccin a ete trouve, il a fallu departager les vaccins "vivants" et "morts", les risques inherents a I'un ou a I'autre n'etant pas equivalents. A I'heure " ... actuelle, ces questions ne se posent plus; Ie vaccin est utilise d'une maniere suffisamment maitrisee et la maladie a quasi disparu. Lorsqu'on se trouve en presence de cas nombreux et repetitifs, la prevention est donc possible. Les resultats sont generalement mesurabIes. Deux terrains de predilection se presentent generalement a I'interieur des entreprises. 11 s'agit des accidents du travail et du risque automobile. Dne observation attentive des cas vecus ont permis I'adoption de contre-mesures generalement efficaces, qui ont, eu pour premier avantage de diminuer la frequence des accidents. La gravite des accidents est plus difficile a maitriser, encore qu'une diminution de frequence entraine generalement une amelioration generale. De plus la prevention au niveau des machines passe par des solutions techniques qui portent aussi sur Ie risque potentiel et donc aussi sur la gravite. Pour Ie risque automobile, la situation est plus £loue : on a diminue les vitesses autorisees en agglomeration au moment meme OU on repensait la circulation. Dans la plupart des villes on a rendu la circulation moins rapide en multipliant les obstacles, en interdisant meme certaines zones, ou en specialisant la voie publique. La consequence en est une circulation ralentie de facto. Est-ce la regie ou les embUches qui ont diminue les consequences des accidents, la question reste ouverte. b) La prevention sans resultats, ou la preven- tion subjective Nous avons vu plus haut combien la prevention etait relativement facile a defendre, lorsque les frequences, et encore mieux, lorsque la gravite d'accidents diminue de maniere significative. On peut mesurer et chiffrer les resultats. 11 y a cependant de nombreux domaines ou, en I'absence de phenomenes suffisamment repetitifs, on ne peut malheureusement pas chiffrer les resultats. (1) (2) Borghes~ Antonio (1985) La gestione de Rischi di Azienda; Padova-Cedam. Maquet, Yves (1991) Des primes d'assurances au fmancement des risques (p. 132); Bruylant, Bruxelles. 3 rm 13 Comment faire un parallele entre des couts et des mesures de prevention et la non survenance d'evenements dommageables. Un calcul "negatif' de ce type releve d'une approche presqu'entierement subjective: comment relier la non realisation de quelque chose aux dispositions prises pour que cela n'arrive pas. Des experiences vecues demontrent d'ailleurs l'inverse : malgre les precautions prises, Ie pire peut quand meme arriver: un entrepat HPR peut quand meme brwer de fond en comble. C'est peut-etre la qu'il faut trouver la clef de la prevention subjective. Elle ne procede jamais d'un principe de certitude: "si j'ai pris telles precautions, tel evenement ne se produira pas... !" Au contraire, elle part du principe inverse et s'evertue a trouver des mesures propres a diminuer ou eviter des consequences trop dramatiques. C'est un peu comme Ie second circuit de freinage dans une voiture ou les parachutes dans un ascenseur. Si tout se passe bien, les mesures prises· ne serviront"a" rien :. elles auront meme augmente Ie cout initial. En entreprise, il faudra que l'organisation accorde une certaine attention et une certaine valeur a la prevention subjective. Elle n'est pas du tout incompatible avec la prevention objective, mais el1e procede d'une vision differente, plus conforme a l'incertitude qui preside a notre futuro c) Que dire de la prevention obligatoire ? Referons-nous, pour mieux comprendre, aux regles, dispositifs et normes imposes d'office par la regIementation, la legislation, les directives, les conventions de toutes sortes. Les prescriptions de securite et de prevention sont innombrables et souvent camouflees dans d'autres dispositions. Un immeuble d'usine sera traite comme batiment, comme lieu de reunion, comme lieu de travail d'un personnel qu'il faut proteger et fera l'objet d'un permis d'exploitation, d'un permis de batir, d'une obligation de couvrir a l'egard du public qui y a acres, d'une inspection technique, d'une supervision du corps des pompiers, de regIes specifiques de protection des travailleurs, d'une medecine du travail etc... Les dispositions prises relevent parfois de la prevention objective, d'autre fois de la prevention subjective et meme aussi des deux en meme temps. Cela veut-il dire qu'il suffit de respecter les regIes ainsi edictees ? Pour etre en ordre, peut-etre que oui... encore qu'on n'est jamais sUr d'avoir repondu a tout. Ce qui est probable, c'est qu'il faudra y ajouter de la prevention subjective ou objective selon Ie cas. Au lieu de donner des protections acoustiques - d'ailleurs prevues par la regIementation - aux travailleurs, je peux aussi diminuer Ie bruit de fonctionnement d'une machine ou d'un engin, et cela est mesurable objectivement... Si j'opte pour la seconde solution, j'aurai fait oeuvre utile, mais cela risque de couter plus cher... au debut du processus, tout au moms. . Mais sur la ligne du temps, les resultats seront plus durables. d) Enlin, iI y a la prevention/resilience L'entreprise peut etre confrontee a des crises diverses : un accident majeur (Bophal), une contamination de produit, accidentelle ou criminelle (Perrier, les aliments pour bebes), Ie kidnapping d'un des dirigeants... La liste est longue et ne peut etre ramenee a des cas precis. Tout ph6nomene de "business interruption" . ·"'·pour·'n1importe' quelle' raison, doit etre aborde d'une maniere telle que Ie corps constitue par l'entreprise puisse reagir en temps voulu avec un minimum d'efficacite. Mais pour y arriver, il faut y avoir pense avant l'evenement - apres, il est generalement trop tard. Un resultat ne peut etre obtenu que si les differents composants de l'entreprise ont ete entraines a travailler ensemble, a reflechir ensemble. Meme si les scenarios imagines, et il en faut quelques-uns pour guider la reflexion, ne sont presque jamais ceux qui se realisent, ils servirons d'entrainement... Les pilotes d'avion re~oivent, par Ie moyen de simulateurs, un entrainement constant en vue de situations exceptionnelles qu'ils ne rencontreront peut-etre jamais. Mais c'est probablement cet entrainement qui a permis aux equipages de rester maitres d'eux-memes dans les circonstances non prevues de detournements et de prise en otage... La strategie de Shell est egalement interessante a plus d'un titre. Ce groupe pratique la planification par scenarios, pour la raison simple que la planification par previsions n'est plus possible en raison des "forces incontrolables" qui gerent l'economie. Les scenarios reconnaissent Ie facteur d'incertitude et offrent differentes manieres de penser les problemes strategiques. En matiere de risque c'est la meme chose que pour l'economie : une bonne prevention/ resilience n'a d'autre hut que d'entrainer l'entreprise ase preparer a reagir en cas de besoin. Cet entrainement est la seule gymnastique qui prepare a 4 l'incertitude et prend Ie contre-pied de la prevention / procedure qui s'inscrit toujours dans des previsions trop figees. CONCLUSION Cette maniere de serier les preventions est destinee a eviter une confusion trop repandue : "je ne fais de la prevention que si c'est plus rentable". En fait, la sagesse populaire ne s'est jamais exprimee de cette maniere. Prevenir vaut mieux que guerir englobe toutes les preventions possibles. N'est-ce pas mieux ainsi ? F. Settembrino ZUSAMMENFASSUNG ·DES GUEST ,. EDITORIALS "1st vorbeu2en billi2er als beilen ?" 1m Buch von A. Borghesi 'Vas Manage11Jent der Industrierisiken" (l) wird die Uberlegung angestel!t, dass man, unabhiingig von den Schadenverhiltungsmassnahmen eines Untemehmens, nie eine klare Bilanz ziehen kann, die zwischen menschlichen und technischen Faktoren unterscheidet. Um die Frage ''Ist vorbeugen billiger als heilen?" beantworten zu konnen, milsste man ilber Zahlen und eine Objektivitiit verfilgen, die nicht vorhanden sind. Trotzdem scheinen Behorden und Experten ilberzeugt von der Notwendigkeit der Vorbeugung. 1m Editorial dieses Newsletters vom Miirz 92 wurde diese Betrachtungsweise mit zahlreichen Beispielen untermauert, darunter demjenigen der Chemischen Industrie der Schweiz. 1': Maquet geht in seinen Betrachtungen (2) ilber Borghesi hinaus: Risiko ist ein zukilnftiges, ungewisses Ereignis, das als Idee bereits das Sicherheitsgefilhl des Einzelnen stort. Um Klarheit zu gewinnen, schlagt der 'Guest Editor' vor, das Problem zu gliedem: (a) die 'objektive' Pravention mit fiberzeugenden Resultaten Sie ist moglich in Fallen einer hohen Zahl von wiederkehrenden Erkrankungen wie z.B. bei Kinderlahmung, wobei es u. U. noch rm 13 zu wahlen gibt zwischen 'lebenden' und 'toten'Impfstoffen. (b) die 'subjektive' Pravention ohne messbare Resultate 1m Falle von singuliiren, grossen Schadenfallen ist der okonomische Nachweis oft kaum zu erbringen: Wenn nichts geschieht, hat die Priivention nur hohere Kosten verursachi; wenn etwas ges'chieht," tritt oft trotz Schadenverhiltungsmassnahmen eine Katastrophe ein. Diese Art der Priivention kann aber der Reduktion der Ungewissheit wegen trotzdem angebracht sein. (c) die obligatorische Pravention durch Nonnen und Gesetze Ihre Ziele mischen sich oft mit den Zielen der objektiven oder gar der subjektiven Pravention. Statt Arbeiter mit Gehorschutzgermen auszurilsten, kOnnte,der Maschinenlarm vermindert werden - idne Massnahme, deren Eifolg sich objektiv messen lasst. Die~ se letztere Massnahme ist sicher besser, aber auch teurer, als die erstere - mindestens kurzfristig. (d) die Pravention als 'Stossdampfer' Ein Untemehmen kann durch ein unvorhergesehenes Ereignis gelahmt werden: Die Entfilhrung des Chefs, eine Katastrophe wie Bhopal. Nur wenn die einzelnen Teile eines Untemehmens sich im voraus auf diese Situation vorbereitet haben, wie Flugzeugpiloten dies regelmassig tun, kann die Situation gemeistert werden; oft selbst in anderen als den vorgesehenen Notsituationen. FOLGERUNGEN Diese Art der Gliederung nach moglichen Schadenverhiltungstypen sol! helfen, eine haufige Verwirrung von der Art ''Ich ergreife Priiventionsmassnahmen nur, wenn es sich lohnt" aufzuzeigen; der gesunde Menschenverstand hat sich niemals so ausgedrilckt. ''Vermeiden ist besser als hei/en" umfasst al!e moglichen Priiventionsarten, einzeln oder kombinierte. 1st dies nicht die bessere Losung? (1) (2) Borghes~ Antonio (1985) Dos Management von Industrierisiken; Padova-Cedam. Maquet, Yves (1991) Versichenmgspriimien als Finanzienmg der Risiken (p. 132); Brnylant, Bruxelles. An English Summary of the Guest Edito- rial can be found on page 1. rml3 5 REPORTS FROM MAJOR CONFERENCES ON RISK MANAGEMENT The M.O.R.E. 8 • SEMINAR on "The Risk Management of and involving Computers and Electronic Equipment" was organised jointly by the Business School of the Liverpool Polytechnic and the Geneva Association. It took place at the Moat House Hotel, Liverpool on March 3 and 4, 1992 (M.O.R.E. = Management of Risks in Engineering). Approximately 40 participants took part in this seminar, that reserved a lot of time to discussions on the papers presented. Most of these papers have been published in "Etudes & Dossier" no. 170, August 1992. Among thespeakers~and'subjects presented were the following: Introduction, Walter R. Stahel, the Geneva Association Rethinking Risk Assessment, Denis Smith and Trevor Sheldon, Liverpool Risk Management Principles, F. Settembrino, Brussels Cindynic Epistemology, Georges-Yves Kervern, Paris Financial Scale for Disaster, Alf Keller, Bradford The Role of Software Faults in System Failures in Engineering Construction Programmes, Dr e.O. Bauer, HDI, Hannover Education for Engineers on Risk Issues: a UK Case Study, John Reid, Glasgow Bringing Risk Issues into Focus, Sir William Francis, London . GIS and Risk Management, Dr Tony Gatteral Offshore Safety, Dr Don Lloyd Macroeconomic Modelling, Dr John Thompson, Liverpool Complexity, Vulnerability and the Failure of Computer Systems, Tom HorlickJones, London Computer Modelling of Major Hazards/Risks, Dr Richard Griffiths, Manchester Fire Risk Assessment and Computer Source Codes, Alan Beard, Edinburgh Airbus Failures, Dr Des Hickie and Denis Smith Several other subjects, such as 'The cost and Risk of Electromagnetic (In)Compatibility', 'Bank Cash Machines: Product Liability for Banking Services, the Case of Bank of Scotland', 'Systemic Risk from Information Systems', 'Environmental Impairment Liability in the Recycling of Computers', 'Telephone Systems Failures and Consequential Loss', 'Product Uability, Computer Software Faults and Consequential loss had originally been included, but had to be dropped due to the difficulty of finding a distinguished speaker to present the specific area. In order to pick up on the MORE 8 - Seminar, as well as previous studies and seminars on the subject of 'Computer Risks', the Geneva AssociatIOn has decided that the next seminar in the MORE - series will be devoted again to this subject. We can therefore announce: The M.O.R.E. 9 - Seminar, to be held in Zurich in the first week of November 1993, on the two subjects of 1. COMPUTER RISKS REVISITED (including software, hardware and networks) 2. DATABANKS AND INTERNATIONAL NETWORKS FOR THE INSURANCE SECfOR. This is a first call for papers on these two areas, including papers with new insights on the subjects that were presented or not at the Liverpool seminar in March 1992. 6 rm13 MISCELLANEOUS PREVENTION The 1991 Cost of Risk Survey, published in April 1992 jointly by Tillinghast, a Tower Perrin Company, and Risk and Insurance Management Society, Inc., contains some information on 'Risk control and loss prevention expenses. The cost of risk- concept consists of (a) net insurance premiums; (b) unreimbursed losses (self-insured, self-retained); (c) risk control and loss prevention expenses; (d) administrative costs. A detailed review of this study is given in the section ''BOOKS AND PUBLICATIONS'~ (NZZ, Sep 7, 1992) Discovety of a U.S. satellite wreck on an Italian glacier. A group of mountain climbers has discovered the wreck of a 'freshly fallen' U.S. satellite on a glacier in the Stilfser .loch.national park. The pieces are strewn over a wide area, the largest measuring 70 centimeters, filled with electronics and cables. The printed information on the wreck allowed to determine its origin. It is planned to examine on site, and possibly recover, the wrecked satellite, in order to determine its age. (NZZ, Dec 11, 1991) The coldest winter of the centuty in Europe was the headline of an article last December. In the meantime, Europe has just lived through what will probably be its hottest Summer in a long tIme. The question of global warming or more extreme weather is, of course, also linked to that of a short-cycle greenhouse effect or a long-cycle new ice age (following Dr Hamacker's theory). The latter also predicts an increase in the strength of the winds and storms. Hurricane Andrew in August 92 would certainly support Hamacker. (Le Monde, Feb 11, 1992) Call for a crises science. Following the case last winter of an AT&T power failure that closed almost all airports on the U.S. East Coast, from Washington to Boston, Patrick Lagadec, a French researcher, calls for a more serious attitude towards managing technology in the future. The reason for the breakdown in the U.S. was not a conceptual mistake; the emergency, battery-based system took over from the power generators as it was supposed to do. The reason was that when six hours later, the batteries were exhausted without anybody having noticed that the power supply had switch to emergency sta- INFORMATION AND NEWS tus. So the collapse of the telecom system was inevitable! (Time, Sep 21, 92) The Arab Economic Report, an annual study by leading financial _.institutions in the Middle East, has calculated that the total price tag to Arab countries for the Gulf War amounted to $620 billion. The figure, which revised downwards an earlier estimate of $800 billion, includes damage to infrastructure in Kuwait ($160 billion) and Iraq ($190 billion), direct payments by Arab nations to the U.S., Bntain and France for military intervention ($84 billion) and logistical support for allied troops in Saudi Arabia($51 billion). Previous Pentagon estimates placed the U.S. '.' cost of the war, at $61 ,billion. Of that, $7.1 billion was shelled out by American taxpayers - more than one-third of the annual ~ross domestic product' of Bangladesh ($20.4 billion). In addition, the Gulf War has meant an end to the growth path of the Arab economies, bringing back the high inflation rates of the 70's of 20%. Income from oil exports, $101 billion in 1991, went back to $96 billion. (Economist, Sep 12, 92) A Floridian economist reckons that damage from Hurricane Andrew amounted to $17 billion - $20 billion. That is three times worse than the costs inflicted by the last big tempest, Hurricane Hugo. (New Scientist, Sep 12, 92) Disaster relief needs satellite task force. When disaster hits, communications are often lost. Yet telecom are essential to rescue teams assessing damage, and to relief organisations attempting to coordinate their responses. Often, a satellite link is the only way to rapidly reopen communications with the outside world. (sda, Sep 2, 92) Ciba-Geigy, the Swiss chemical company, will have to pay the State of Alabama the sum of approx. $100m over the next ten years towards the cost of decontamination of a former factory site. In addition, the company has to reimburse the State of Alabama for the cost of the analysis the sum of $322'000. This is the result of a agreement reached out of court. The con- rm13 tamination dates from a time when chemicals such as DDT where produced on the site concerned. (ap, Sep 1, 92) More than a million lamb have died in New Zealand during the worst winter in 40 years. The figure could reach 1.5m animals. The financial damage is estimated at $40m. (NYT, Aug 11, (92) In a~signof,"nuclear power's decline, the directors of a utility in Oregon voted yesterday to retire a plant in 1986, halfway through Its planned life of 40 years, because operating it is no longer considered worth the cost. The Trojan nuclear power plant in Ranier, Ore., is not the first reactor to be retired long before the projected end of its life, but at 1.1 million watts it is the largest. About 20 nuclear power plants around the country may face the same fate as their steam generators age, while other utilities have already, ·decided to . replace plants. (sda, Aug 4, 92) Approx 2'000 tons of toxic waste resulting from the disastrous fire in a chemical warehouse in Schweizerhalle, near Basel, will probably be put in a underground cavern in Herfa-Neurode, Germany. The waste resulted from the decontamination of the soil. According to tests of 10 tons, it would be technically and ecologically possible to incinerate the toxic waste; however, the storage in the caverns is cheaper than incineration. The cost of construction for the floatation plant to clean the soil was about SFR 50m. The plant will stop working in October 1992. (Economist, June 27,92) The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled, by a comfortable majority, that cigarette companies may indeed be sued under state personal injmy laws, and that the warning labels on cigarette packets (mandatory since 1966) do not protect them from claims. The family of Rose Cipollone, who died of lung cancer in 1984, has been trying to bring a successful suit against the companies whose products she smoked. But there is a catch, or rather several. Claims have to be predicated on the manufacturer's duty not to deceive. Companies might also be sued if they made allegedly false statements of material fact in advertising. (NZZ, June 3, 92) Carbon fibers won the Gulf War. In the first days of the Gulf war, Tomahawk cruise missiles dropped thousands of reels of carbon fibers on all the 7 electrical substations in Iraq. The carbon fibers unreeled, coverin~ the whole plants and causing short cirCUIts everywhere and leading to the breakdown of the Iraqi power supply. (NZZ, May 28, 92) An Australian court has decided that passive smoking is a health hazard. As a result of this, smoking in public or at work may soon become a thing of' the past iii. 'A.ustralia': The claimant, a psychologist of the Health Department in New South Wales, was awarded $80'000 by the court. As a first result, the authorities have made smoking in airports illegal (smoking in airplanes has been illegal already for some time). (Economist, May 23, 92) Insurance claims for the Los Angeles riots are expected to reach $775m. (New Scientist, May 2, 92) Ouake risk shakes'oil "ri~ designers. Earthcjuakes in the North Sea may be a big enough danger to force design changes in offshore oil rigs, according to the British Geological Survey. The BGS was commissioned by the Department of Energy in 1979 to assess the seIsmic risk to offshore structures. The result of the nine years of research have now been published by the Health and Safety Executive, which took over responsibility for safety in the North Sea after the Piper Alpha accident. (ap, April 24, 92) An explosion of the chemical 'Hexan' has claimed 200 dead and hundreds of injured in Guadalajara, Mexico. It seems that the chemical seeped into the sewer system of the town and blew up entire streets. (NZZ, April 17, 92) The health ministers of all Australian states have decided that, in the future, cigarette packages on sale in Australia have to carry one of the following warnings: "Smoking kills", "Smoking causes dependency", "Smoking can cause lung cancer", "Smoking causes harms to others". These warnings have to cover one fourth of the front. The back as well as one side of the package have to ca~ several informations, which were specifIed by the health ministers. (ap, April 15 to 19, 92) The flooding of an underground tunnel system in Chicago, II.., has knocked out the entire city center for at least 24 hours. The electricity supply had to 8 rm 13 be cut after a tunnel wall collapsed undergerous bacteria are regularly sent from one neath the Chicago river. The water rushed laboratory to another - through the post. through the tunnel system and into the The mailed microorganisms include genetibasements of the skyscrapers. The whole cally modified bacteria., yet a survey in the 'loop' of Chicago had to be evacuated, Netherlands reveals that not one laboratory including the Sears Tower, the tallest builpacked its samples properly. Damaged ding in the world. packa~es could leak genetically altered orgamsms into the environment, say the The tunnel system was build at the end Dutch researchers. The UN Committee of of last century by the Chicago Tu~el. ComE pany 12 meters below the street surface in .. " - xperts, on -the Transportation-, of Dan~e· h d l' f h US rous Goods lays down rules for postmg samples of this kind. Yet laboratories do order to facilltate t e e Ivery 0 t e .. mail and of coal, and the evacuation of the ashes from the boiler rooms of the tall builnot seem to apply them. dings. For half a century, according to an (New Scientist, April 4, 92) U.S. rethinks article in the New York Times of May 13, link between polio vaccine and HIV. Claims 92, the system served Chicago well, with 117 that contaminated polio vaccine could have locomotIves and 3'000 freight cars shuttling been the origin of AIDS are to be investigaamong the buildings. ted afresh in the U.S.. At the centre of the The reason for the disaster seem to be theory is the plausible, if unlikely, speculalack of maintenance. In the 1950's, the tuntion that a direct forerunner of HIV contar h d .minated monkey cells that. we~e used tQ h nel system was re duce d to· au mg'as an grow polio virus for the vaccines: Retroviruother refuse. In the 1960's it was abandoned ses are similar, but not identical, to HIV altogether. Utilities had taken over the tunthat have been found in many species of nel system from the coal trade, and had installed gas and electricity mains, but had monkey. not accepted the task of keeping the tunnels Yet all too often, custom officials have in good repair. Is prevention cheaper than seized equipment that relief workers have cure? (see guest editorial, page 1 to 4). The tried to take into stricken countries. SpeaNew York Times writes that the Great kers at last week's World Space Congress Chicago Flood of 1992 was caused by called on international agencies to overforgetfulness. The reason for the flood come barriers which stop such teams operaseems to be the sinking of new pilings in the ting. (ap, March 27, 92) An Indian court has river in Summer 1991, without bothering to know what might be in the ground already. issued a arrest warrant for the retired presi(dpa., April 7, 92) A ~as explosion on the dent of the Union Carbide Co., Warren Wesley oilfield in Texas has caused an Anderson, in connection with the Bhopal earthguake of the magnitude 3.5 to 4 disaster of 1984. India will ask for extradi(Richter). One person was killed, at least 16 tion of Anderson. The Bhopal disaster has other injured. The explosion occurred on a claimed over 4'000 dead and 20'000 injured. oilfield where large volumes of natural gas It is the biggest industrial accident to date. are stored in salt caverns underground. (FT, March 25, 92) Getting the chemistry wrong. No company is immune from crisis. (Business insurance, April 6, 92) The ongoing conflict among state and federal In the face of mounting lawsuits, political courts interpreting the pollution exclusion controversy and congressional investi~aclause in coml?rehensive general liability tions, the Michigan-based Dow Cormng insurance poliCIes has reached new extrecompany last week said it would withdraw meso Two federal aJ?peals courts - the 1st from the silicon breast implant business. and 4th U.S. CirCUIt Courts of Appeal Silicone gel breast implants had been on the each interpreting the pollution exclusion market for decades and Dow had sold them under New Jersey law last month reached for almost 30 years. Yet last winter, a San diametrically opposite results. The 1st CirFrancisco women was awarded $3.7m in cuit ruled in favour of policyholders, while dama~es and Dow Corning charged with the 4th ruled in favour of insurers. knOWIngly selling a defective product. (New Scientist, April 4, 92) Mutant bacteria The lack of corporate concern about may escape from the mail. Potentially dansafety was not for lack of information. rm 13 Memos and internal documents dating from 1976 outline safety concerns from doctors, sales agents and Dow employees. In December 91, a women who suffered from a ruptured implant was awarded $7.34m from the biggest maker of implants, Dow Corning, according to another article in The Economist, Jan 11, 92, entitled: The price of beauty. (Reuter, March 22, 92) British Airways has ordered a check on all its Concorde aircraft, after one of them has lost part of its tailfin on a flight from London to the U.S.. This was the third similar case within the last three years. The part, 1.8 by 1.2 meters, was lost in midair. The reason seems to be cleaning liquids containing v.o.c. (volatile organic compounds); these liquids are used for cleaning the outside of the aircraft. (Economist, March 7, 92),.Vandalism in the. Tyneside area. Transport police (of British Railways) have recently arrested over 100 people for vandalism on the line. Police blame the trouble on signalling work that has left behind a lot of redundant copper cable. Many of the vandals hope to make a bit of money on the copper, though some, it seems, cannot distinguIsh between copper and optic fibre. When they cut the wrong one, all the signals tum red. A similar problem exists in Eastern Europe, and at least one railway accident in Eastern Europe in September 92 seems to have been caused by a missing copper signal line. (Economist, March 7, 92) When animals mysteriously go blind, people tend to ask questions. In Punta Arenas, Chile, these questions are likely to be about ozone. From the southern-most city in the world, you might, with suitably sensitive eyes, see ultraviolet light streanung through the hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica. Farmers report that during the past three years a small but ~rowing number of sheep grazing at high altitudes have developed temporary blindness. The animals usually recover their sight after six to eight weeks. With regard to human, there has been no increase in cases of skin cancer recently. However, the 30 long-term noncancer patients of the local dermatologist, who are allergic to sunlight, have seen their reactions grow more intense each year. 9 (Economist, March 7, 98) Ciba-Geigy is to pay New Jersey $64.1m in fines and cleanup costs for two incidents involving lack of control over dangerous waste. (ap) On March 5, a Swissair Airbus A-31O200 had a close encounter with a Tiger fighter plane of the Swiss airforce. The fighter, involved in an exercise with another plane, crossed the flightpath of the Airbus in a distance of 20-40 meters in front of the airliner, at a right angle. (FT, March 3, 92) Dutch police confiscated a $101'000 Ferrari 348 GTS after the car was clocked doing 150mph in Amsterdam. Dutch law allows the authorities to sell a car breaking the speed limit by 44mph. (Economist, Feb 29, 92) India's health statistics. About 1m people die in India each year of diseases associated with diarrhoea, ",600~.ooO of lung .infections,. and. 500'000 of measles. By comparison, the 103. people known to have AIDS, according to government figures, do not seem much of a problem. Yet there are well founded fears that the disease could become India's biggest killer. (Economist, Feb 22, 92) Oil tankers suffer £!: Q.uarter of their major spills on Saturdays well over the seventh one might expect. Nearly all the "extra" spills are due to human error. One clue to the Saturday surplus is that the extra mishaps are not distributed evenly around the world. They happen in North America, Europe, and countries whose population is mainly Christian. (Economist, Feb 5, 92) Theft UK insurance payments rose by more than 60% for domestic properties and 20% for commercial premises to a total of more than £800m last year, according to figures released by ABI. Fire damage pay-outs rose 1991 to £1.02bn, half of which is thou~ht to be due to arson. About £lOOm of this IS believed to be due to policy holders setting fire to their own property to claim insurance money. Other heavy loss making categories include theft of cars, where claims rose by 50%, and mortgage indemnity policies which compensate lenders when properties are repossessed. The figures for 1991 hi~h li~ht the background of recession and rismg cnme. (adg) For the record, it should be noted that Michelangelo, the dreaded computer virus, 10 has flassed on the 6th March 1992 without causmg a breakdown of the electronic world. (NZZ, Feb 22/23, 1992) Fines for water pollution. BP has been fined SFR 120'000 by the Geneva authorities for an accident on Jan 26, in which 500'000 liters of kerosene leaked into the sewers and the Rhone river. Due to the extreme cold weather at the time of the acciderit, a potential catastrophe did not materialize. (Reuter, Feb 22, 1992) Cholera victim in California. Probably due to infected food on board an Argentinean airplane, a passenger died of cholera after the arrival in California. 8 further passengers have been infected by the illness and have undergone treatment, another 52 show symptoms of the illness. The airplane transported 366 passen~ers. Aerolinas Argentinas thinks that the Infected food was loaded ,in· Lima and has dropped this destination from its flight schedule. (dpa, Feb 23, 1992) Cancer in children postChernobyl. MDs from the cancer center in Minsk, ex-USSR, have presented the conclusions of a study on cancer in children to representatives of WHO (World Health Organisation) and the European Communities. The results are alarming; some types of cancer have increased from 2 to 4 cases per annum before the Chernobyl catastrophe, to 54 to 120 cases p.a. in 1991. As a result of this study, WHO and EC have decided to start a programme of international collaboration on the subject of cancer post-Chernobyl. rm13 BOOKS, PUBLICATIONS, ARTICLES AND PAPERS RECEIVED 'Cost of Risk Survey 1991' (April 1992, price US$ 250), published jointly by Tillinghast, a Tower Perrin Company, 200 West Madison Street, Chicago, IL 60606; and .Risk and. Insu,rance Management Society, Inc., 205 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y. 10017. The '991 Cost of Risk Survey is the sixth study coll~acted jointly by the RIMS and Tillinghast. This survey documents the total cost of risk for all participants, and by industry group and fmancial size. Data collected was for calendar year 1990. The intent of the survey is to assist risk managers, fmancial executives and others in evaluating their organization's costs of risk relative to other organizations of the same size in the same industry. It also provides important information regarding the structure -. ., of, insurance. programs and 'organizational risk management functions. The study contains an Appendix on the methodology, how to use the survey, comments on data reporting, and on interpreting the results. The cost of risk concept, as defmed by Douglas Barlow, consists of (a) net insurance premiums; (b) unreimbursed losses (self-insured, self-retained); (c) risk control and loss prevention expenses; (d) administrative costs. In addition, cost of risk may include net cost or gain associated with a captive insurance company, either single parent or association, if the organization participates in a captive. A total 847 answers, out of 4'200 member organizations of RIMS, were in sufficient detail to be included in the analysis. Respondents were located in 45 states and DC, as well as in 9 Canadian provinces. 'Der globale Treibhauseffekt', Power News der ABB Asea Brown Boveri, CH-5400 Baden, Schweiz. 'Deutscher Verein fUr Versicherungswirtschaft e.V.' (1992) Abhandlungen zum Thema 'Kiinftige Umwelten und Versicherungen'; in: Zeitscbrift fUr die gesamte Versicherungswissenschaft, no. 1/2 1992, Verlag Versicherungswirtschaft, Karlsruhe. 'Earthquake Hazard Atlas 3. Italy (1992); LIRMA, 41/43 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AE. 'Etudes & Dossier' no. 170, August 1992: Papers of the M.O.R.E. 8 - Seminar on 'The Risk Management of and involving Computers and Electronic Equipment', held in Liverpool March 3 and 4, 1992; published by the Geneva Association. 'Etudes et recherches 1991', publications et communications; INRS, Institut national de recherche et de securite, 30 rue Olivier-Noyer, F-75680 Paris Cedex 14, France. nnl3 'Environment and Development, towards a common strategy of the South in the UNCED negotiations and beyond' (1992) South Centre, P.O.Box 228, CH-1211 Geneva 19; or P.O.Box 71000, Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania. 'Environment and Development in Hungary - a Blueprint for Transformation'; International Workshop on Institutional Design for Environmental Protection in Hungary; March 29 - April 1,1992. FAST paper on "Come affrontare il problema deC rifuti: Schema concettuale e linee operative; Federazione delle associazioni scientifiche e tecniche, Piazzale R. Morandi 2, 1-20121 Milano, Italy. 'Forum on the International Legal Vulnerability of Financial Information - Summary Record and Statement of a Meeting in Toronto, CDN, on Feb 28, 1990; Peter Robinson, 2 Weatherwood Crescent, Nepean, Ontario K2E 7CfJ, Canada. 'Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, Issues and Practice' no. 64, July 1992, contains three sections on (1) Risk Management Today, with contributions by H. Felix KIoman, Yacov Y. Haimes, William W. Lowrance, Dennis Farthing, Vernon Leslie Grove, Adam M. Finke~ James V. Davis, Judith Lichtenberg and Douglas MacLean, Gordon CA. Dickson, (2) Studies on climatic change, with contributions by J.L. Rasmussen, Gerhard A. Berz, Andrew F. Dlugolecki, MJ. Tooley, (3) Managing Risk in the catering industry, by Alan Gordon. Published by the Geneva Association. 'Hazardous waste and human health' (1991) BMA British Medical Association; Oxford University Press, Oxford. 'La psychologie de l'homme face awe risques' (1991) revue 'Face au risque' du Centre national de prevention et de protection, decembre 1991. 'L'energie nucIeaire en question' (1991); LeChercheet de Midi/ministere de l'industrie l'amenagement du territoire, avril 1991. 'Les risques technologiques majeurs'; Le Monde du 11 revrier 1992. 'Proceedings of Giornata dell'Assicurazione' (1992) Politecnico di Milano, 11 Marzo 1992, Milano. 'Report on the Forum held on Nov 1, 1991, on Quantifying Catastrophe Exposures in the UK' (1992); LIRMA, 41/43 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AE. 'Sun Alliance calls in expert systems for engineering insurance' (1992) in: Insurance Systems Bulletin, May 1992, vol 7, no 9. Backhaus, J. (1991) Umwelt und offentliche Haushalte: Die Umweltsteuer und ihre Alter- 11 nativen; Faculty of Economics, Limburg University, NL-6200 MD Maastricht. Duchin, Faye and Lange, Glenn-Marie (1992) Strategies for environmentally sound economic development; this manuscript was prepared for the U.N. conference on Environment and Development that took place in Rio, June 1992. The report turns a string of plausible assumptions about what can be done to promote sustainable development over the next ···several decades - ·those of the Brundtland Report - into a well-defmed scenario about the actions that might be taken in all parts of the world economy. It further proceeds to employ a systems approach to quantifying the assumptions and analyzing the implications of the scenario. The report fmds that the scenario is feasible from an economic point of view, especially for the regions which are already industrialized, but results in a significant expansion of pollution. In other words, the authors of the report believe that the recommendations of the Brundtland report cannot achieve the stated objectives. Funtowicz, Silvio and Ravetz, Jerome (1987) The arithmetic of scientific uncertainty; Phys. Bull 38 (1987). Gibbons, Robert J. (1992) Insurance Perspectives addresses some of the educational objectives of CPCU 1: Ethics, insurance perspectives and insurance contract analysis; American Institute for Chartered Property Casualty Underwriters, Malvern, PA 19355-0716. Gruhler, Wolfram (1990) Dienstleistungsbestimmter Strukturwandel in deutschen Industrieunternehmen, einzel- und gesamtwirtschaftlicher Kontext, Determinanten, Interaktionen, empirischer Befund; Materialien der deutschen Wirtschaft 6; Deutscher Instituts-Verlag, K6ln. Heerwaarden, Angela van (1991) Ordering of Risks; Thesis Publishers, Amsterdam. Ince, Darrell and Andrews, Derek (1990) The Software Life Cycle; Butterworths Boston. Contains papers on: Software product assurance; measurement and control; Designing software for provable correctness: the direction for quality software; Software testing techniques. (on this subject, see also the proceedings of the MORE 8 Seminar in Liverpoo~ March 1992). Kervern, Georges-Yves et Rubise, Patrick (1991) l'archipel du danger; CPE Economica, Juillet 1991. Lagadec, Patrick (1992) La gestion du futur - pour une science des crises; Le Monde, 11 fevrier 92. Lagadec, Patrick (1991) La gestion des crises; McGraw Hill. Marech~ Jean-Paul (1991) Le prix du risque l'economie au defi de l'environnement; Presses du CNRS, Paris. 12 rm 13 Markham, James J. (1992) Principles of Workers Compensation Claims; Insurance Institute of America, 72D Providence Road, Malvern, PA 19355-0770. of CPCU 1: Ethics, insurance perspectives and insurance contract analysis; American Institute for Chartered Property Casualty Underwriters, Malvern, PA 19355-0716. Meyer-Abbich, Klaus (1989) WWie sind Risiken in Offentlicher Verantwortung zu rechtfertigen?; in: ZRP 1989, Heft 10. Winch, Graham, and Voss, Christopher (1992) Organisation Design for Integrating Technologies; Warwick Business School Research Papers no. 9; University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK. Ravetz, J.R. et al (1990) Biotechnology and Environmental Risk Assessment: Routine and Accidental Risks; EUR· 13060 EN (1990) AG. Colombo and G. Premazzi, editors. Russell, Milton et al (1991) Hazardous waste . remediation - the task ahead: The University of Tennessee, Waste Management Research and Education Institute, 327 South Stadium Hall, Knoxville TN 37996-0710, USA Settembrino, Fran~ois (1992) Travail, retraite, postretraite a la Japonaise - un risk management parmi d'autres; Risk no. 112/92, p. 32-34. Takeuchi, Kei and Matsuoka, Hideo, ed. (1991) Perspectives of advanced-technology society Prospects for Resource-Environment preserving Civilization in the 21st Century; The Institute of Statistical Research, Tokyo, Japan. (see also section "New Research Programmes on Risk Management Issues"). Takeuchi, Kei and Matsuoka, Hideo, ed. (1991) An Introductory Digest 1991 to Perspectives of advanced-technology society - Prospects for Resource-Environment preserving Civilization in the 21st Century; The Institute of Statistical Research, Tokyo, Japan. (see also section "New Research Programmes on Risk Management Issues"). Talcot, Frederick W. (1992) How Certain is that Environmental Risk Estimate?; in: Resources for the Future, Spring 1992, no. 107, Washington DC 2D036-1400. Webb, Bernard L. et al (1992) Insurance Operations volland 2; American Institute for Chartered Property Casualty Underwriters, Malvern, PA 19355-0716. Insurance Operations is the textbook for CPCU 5. Welch, John et al (1992) Contract survey vol 1 and 2; Insurance Institute of America, Malvern PA 19355-0716. Contract survey is one of five courses leading to the Associate in Fidelity and Surety Bonding (AFSB) designation. White, George A et al (1992) Organizational Behavior in Insurance, vol. I and II; Insurance Institute of Americy, 72D Providence Road, Malvern, PA 19355-0716. White, Peter, et al (1992) International comparisons of bus and coach safety; proceedings of World Conference on Transport Research in Lyon, June 29, 1992. Wiening, Aric A (1992) Insurance Contract Analysis - addresses some of the educational objectives PAST CONFERENCES 1992 (jor conferences sponsored by the Geneva Association, see pages at end of newsletter). Feb 12-13 Risiko- und umweltbewusstes Management in der chemischen Industrie, Leipzig Germany Umweltakademie, at! Ms Haberle, c/o DLR, D8031 Oberpfaffenhofen Gennany, fax 0049.8153281444. 16-19 Global Super Projects Conference, Honolulu, Hawaii World Development Counci~ 40 Technology Park/Atlanta, Norcross Georgia 3()()92-9934, phone (404) 446-6996, fax (404) 263-8825. 23-27 1992 Annual Meeting of the Society of Toxicology, Seattle SOT, 110114th St., N.w., Suite 1100, Washington DC 20005, phone 001.202-3711393, fax 001.202-371 1090. 24-25 Industrieversicherung 92, Frankfurt Germany IIR, Lyoner Str 15, D-6000 Frankfurt 71, phone 0049.69-664430, fax 69-66443 222. 27-28 Umwelt-Informationssysteme, K6ln Germany IIR, Lyoner Str 15, D-6000 Frankfurt 71, phone 0049.69-664430, fax 69-66443 222. March 17 SECURICOM 92, World Congress on computer and rm13 13 communication security and protection, Paris 22 EDV im Umweltschutz: Datenschutz und Datensicherung SECURICOM 92, Blenheim Group, 22-24 roe du President Wilson, F-92532 Levallois-Pe"et Cedex, France, phone 0033.1-47565000, fax 147569049. Umweltinstitut Offenbach, Nordring 82B, 6050 Offenbach, phone 0049-69.81 06 79, fax 004969.823493. 25 Managing Environmental Accidents, London 9-12 12e Semaine internationale de l'informatique dans l'assurance, Paris Travel for Industry" Victory House, J4v Leicester Squ,are, London WWC2H 7NG, phone 0044.714390964. C4PA, 17 rue Lafayette, F-75009 Paris, phone 0033.1-48 74 93 83, fax 1-48 74 94 11. April 27-28 The Total Quality Management Conference, Brussels MCE, rue Caroly 15, B-1040 Brussels, phone 0032.2-5161911, fax 2-5161911. May 5-7 World conference on health emergencies in technological disasters, Rome Dipantimento della Protezione Civile, Servizio Emergenza Sanitaria; Via Ulpiano 11,1-00913 Roma Italy, phone 0039.6-65 18258, fax 6-65 18 223. 10-14 World Insurance Encounter I Secretariat c/Santa Engracia 151, E-28003 Madrid, phone 534 1536, fax 533 6196 and 5351418. 12-14 6th Int'l ISSA-Colloquium on Machine SaCety, Aachen Sektion Maschinenschutz ISSA. c/o Berufsgenossenschaft Nahrongsmitte/ und Gaststiitten, Dynamostrasse 7-9, 6800 Mannheim 1 FRG, phone 0621-4456-213/200, fax 0621-4456-214. 14-15 Environment and Development Conflict and Convergence, Geneva June 10-11 The Third Luxembourg Rendezvous, Luxembourg Risk Financing and Risk Management RIRG, 4 Henrietta Street, Covent Garden, London WC2E 8PS, phone 0044-71.836 0614, fax 0044.71-3796355. 10-12 European Safety and Reliability Conference '92, Copenhagen Denmark Kurt E Petersen, System Analyis Dept, Riso National Laboratory, POBox 49, 400 RosJdlde Denmark, phone 0045-42 37 12 12, ext. 3082, fax 0045-46 75 71 01. 14-17 ECO WORLD Washington DC Michele Voso, American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 345 East 47th St., New York, NY 10017, phone 001.212-705 7148, fax 212-7057143 14-19 ISWA CONGRESS 1992: Towards Future Practice, Madrid, Spain Julian Uriarte Jaureguizar, ATEGRUS, P.O.Box 1664, 48080 Bilbao, Spain, fax ~6.444.34. Geneva Environment Meetings, 58 roe de la Te"assiere, 1207 Geneva, Switzerland. 21-26 Shaping our national heritage, Kansas-City USA 18-19 International Liability, Paris A&WMA, POBox 2861, Pittsburgh, PA 15230, phone 001.412-2323444. MCE, roe Caroly 15, B-1040 Brussels Belgium. 18-20 CABS 92 - Computer-Aided Ergonomics & SaCety, Tampere Tampere University of Technology, Ms. Kirsti Tikka, POBox 527, SF-33101 Tampere, Finland, phone 00358.31-162 400, fax 31-162164. 18-22 5th Int'l Meeting on Risk and Security Management Cor Insurance Companies, Marbella Spain Fundacion MAPFRE Estudios, Palaute Monte el Pilar, sin E-28023 El Placio /Madrid/Spain, phone 0034.1-6262331/307 66 42, fax 1-626 23 55. 25-26 Eco-Audit and Environmental Management Systems, London Miriam Dean, Management Programme, Brunei University, Uxbridge, Middlesex, UB83PH, Great-Britain. July 6-9 SPT-4 Structural Failure, Product Liability and Technical Insurance, Vienna Dr H P Rossmanith, Institute of Mechanics, TU Vienna, Wiedner Hauptstrasse 8-10/325, A-1040 Vienna Austria. 14 rm13 FUTURE CONFERENCES 1992/1993 (for conferences sponsored by the . Geneva Association, see pages at end of the newsletter). Sep 8, Managing Safety in the 2000's, . ... Helsinki Industrial Mutua~ Dr Karl Hiikkinen, tel (3580) 69612312, fax 69612232. 20-25 Recovery of Biological Products VI, Interlaken Engineering Foundation, 345 East 47th Street, New York, N. Y. 10017, USA, phone 001.212-705 7835, fax 212-705 7441. 19, Seminario EPACf per i responsabili della distribuzione nell' industria petrilifera italiana, Fiere di Parma, Italy EPACT, PO Box 344; NL-3840AH Harderwijk, Netherlands, phone (31) 3410-22424, faax (31) 3410-25614. . 19-22, Rio Report and Global Energy Charter, Geneva World Energy Coalition, Kellerweg 38, CH-8055 Zurich. 3Q-Oct 3 2nd Int'l Conference on Burns and Fire Disasters: Perspectives 2000, Palermo Italy 22-23, Hazard Contol at the Workplace , . -.Research,and Deyelopment of new risk prevention strategies, . . Strasbourg, France Conf. secr. c/o Diyisione die Chirurgia Plastica e Terapia delle Ustion~ Ospedale Ciyico, Via C. Lazarro, 1-90127 Palenno, phone 0039.91-666 3631, fax 91-596 404. INRS, 4e Colloque du Comite AISS, Recherche, Alt. Skomik, 30 rue Olivier-Noyer, F-75680 Paris Culex 14, France, fax +33-1-404 30 99. Oct Workshop on Perspectives and Trends in Safety and Reliability, Lisbon Prof C Guedes Soares, ESRA General Secretary, Apanado 1690, 1016l&J.wJ. Codex, Portuga~ fax +351-1-847-40-15 2, Gene Technology and Biodiversity, on the Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Organism, Basel SAGUF, c/o UNA, Moserstr 22, CH-3014 Bern, Switzerland, phone (031) 654127; fax (031) 65 3737. 5-7, ENTRE '92, X Intereuropean Reinsurance Meeting, Madrid INESE, Santa Engracia 151, E-28003 Madrid, phone 534 15 36, Fax 53361 96. c: Nov 11-13, Nordisk Risk Management Konferens, Copenhagen Unirisk AB, United Risk Management Consultants, Box 5401, S-1l4 84 Stockholm, Sweden phone +46-8-660 45 65, fax +46-8-6617970 23-25 Safety in Road and Rail Tunnels, Basel Mrs Judy Whitham, Independent Technical Conferences Ltd., POBox 452, Kempston, Bedford MK43 9PL, phone 0044-234.854 756, fax 0044-234.841375. 24, PC Security and Viruses, London IBC Technical Services Ltd, 57-61 Mortimer Street, London WIN 7TD, IK. 13-16, Security '92, Essen 25-26, Betriebliche Umwelthaftung, Frankfurt Messe Essen, Norbertstr D-W-43oo Essen, Gennany, phone (0201) 72440. Institute for International Research, Lyoner Strasse 15, D-W-6000 Frankfurt M. 71, Gennany. rm 13 15 30-Dec 1 Software and Systems Practice: Social Science Perspectives, Reading UK PICT University of Oxford, The Labortories, Mill Stree~ Osney OX2 ODI, UK. phone (0865) 278721, fax i:j "65) 278720. 1993 Jan 24-29, Pollution Prevention III Making it Pay! San Diego, CA Engineering Foundation, 345 East 47th Street, New York N.Y. 10017, phone (212) 705-7836, fax (212) 705-7441. March 28-April 2, Role of the clean air act in implementing pollution prevention, Palm Coast, Florida Engineering Foundation, 345 East 47th Street, New York N.Y. 10017, phone (212) 705-7836, fax (212) 705-7441. May 19-21 PICf National Conference 93: European Dimensions in information and communication Panacea or Pandora's Box? Kenilworth, Warwickshire, UK PICT University of Oxford, The Labortories, Mill Street, Osney OX2 ODI, UK, phone (0865) 278721, fax (0865) 278720. 19-21, Safety and Reliability Assessment - an integral approach, Munich, Germany VDI-GIS, P.O. Box 10 11 39, D-WW-4000 Dusseldorf, Gennany, phone +49-211-6214.262, fax +49-211-6214.575. June 13-17, Biotechnology in Europe, 6th European Congress on Biotechnology, Florence, Italie ECB&, c/o Organizzazione Intemazionale Congress~ Via G. Modena, 20, 1-50121 Firenze, laly. Aug 9-13, ICOSSAR '93, 6th Int'l Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability, Innsbruck, Austria ICOSSAR 93 c/o Institut fUr Mechanik, Universitiit Innsbrock, Technikerstr 13, A-6020 Innsbrock, Austria. 3Q-Sep 1 Safety Pays ! Safety in interaction with quality, productivity and economy, Lu¥ano 15th Int'l SympOSIUm ISSA Chemistry Section, c/o BG Chemie, Postfach 10 14 80, D-6900 Heidelberg Gennany. Oct 14-16, Insurance's prospects as regard the EC and the international , '. '.. exchanges'of services; and The new organization of work and professional training in the insurance sector, Venice. Italy CESAR, Piazza dell'EsquiIino 5, 1-00185 Roma, Italy. 16 NEW RESEARCH PROGRAMMES ON RISK MANAGEMENT ISSUES In 1991, Tillinghast, a Tower Perrin Company, and Risk and Insurance Management Society, Inc., jointly conducted a Cost of Risk Survey that was published in April 1992. The 1991 Cost of Risk Survey is the sixth study conducted jointly by the RIMS and Tillinghast. This survey documents the total cost of risk for all participants, and by industry group and financIal size. Data collected was for calendar year 1990. The intent of the survey is to assist risk managers, financial executives and others in evaluating their organization's costs of risk relative to other organizations of the same size in the same industry. It also provides important information regarding the structure of insurance programs and organizational risk management functions. The study contains an Appendix on the methodology, how to use the survey, comments on data reporting, and on interpreting the results. The cost of risk concept consists of (a) net insurance premiums; (b) umeimbursed losses (self-insured, selfretained); (c) risk control and loss prevention expenses; (d) administrative costs. A detailed review of this study is given in the section "BOOKS AND PUBLlCATIONS'~ Perspectives of advanced-technology society - Prospects for Resource-Environment preserving Civilization in the 21st Cen~ is one of the scientific research projects on priority areas sponsored by the Ministry of Education, Science and Culture of Japan. This programme will be conducted over a period of five years, 1990 - 1995. PartIcipants of this research are formed into 40 teams each with its special topic of study, and one general coordinatIon team. A summary , of the research of each team in the second year (1991) has been published in March 1992 by The Institute of Statistical Research, Tokyo, Japan. (see rm 13 Takeuch~ Kei et al, in the section ''BOOKS AND PUBLICATIONS''). Quake risk shakes oil rig designers. Earthquakes in the North Sea may be a big enough danger to force desi~ changes in offshore oil rigs, accordmg to the British Geological Survey. The BGS was commissioned by the Department of Energy in 1979 to assess the seismic risk to offshore structures. The result of the nine years of research have now been published by the Health and Safety Executive, which took over responsibility for safety in the North Sea after the Piper Alpha accident. A summary of thIS research has been published in the New Scientist, May 2, 92, page 10. The study is available from the Health and Safety Executive, London. 'The Management of Risks to Employees and Consumers of the Catering Indust1)' in the United Kingdom and France' is the title of a case study undertaken by Consultex on behalf of the Geneva Association on the employee and public liability risks involved in the catering industry. The new.Food Safety Act in the UK that came into force in 1991 has been a watershed event, that led the Geneva Association to look at this area for the first time in some detail. Eating outside the home, whether in institutional, office/factory or commercial caterin~ establishments is a vast and increasmg business. It involves the preparation and serving of millions of meals per day in Europe. The spending on meals outside the home (not counting drinks) is about 40% of the total amount spent in purchasing food in retail stores for home consumption. In America, as the American housewife has essentially stopped cooking, purchases of meals outSIde the. home, including take out meals, is now larger than retail food spend. Two detailed country reports were produced for France and the UK which show the structure and size of the catering market, the main economic agents, the food hygiene stipulations and enforcement procedures, the main rm 13 employee and public claims related to the catering business and case histories of large catering groups. The detailed case studies were published in the ''Etudes & Dossiers" series of the Geneva Association, no. 165, February 1992. A summary was published in the Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, Issues and Practice, no. 64, ·luly J992. Foundation for loss prevention of the Winterthur Insurance Companies, P.O.Box, CH-8401 Winterthur. Actions in several specific areas, such as the prevention of road accidents involving children. 'Etudes et recherches 1991', publications et communications; INRS, Institut national de recherche et de securite, 30 rue Olivier-Noyer, F-75680 Paris Cedex 14, France. NEW COURSES ON RISK ISSUES The University of Calgary, Canada, has started the first course on insurance and Risk Management in Canada, under the auspices of the Faculty of Management. The mid-80s saw the introduction of courses in insurance administration at Grant MaxEwan Community College in Edmonton and Mount Royal College in Calgary. Graduates of these programs were snapped up by the Alberta insurance sector. A national feasibility study to tap stakeholder needs in insurance traimng and management revealed a ready market for university-qualified insurance professionals. Signals of strong industry interest and support indicated that the time for university insurance education in Canada had arrived. So, in 1987, when the Province of Alberta agreed to double-match industry-generated funds for a proposed new insurance and risk management specialization, the University of Calgary con- 17 fidently committed to the undertaking. Support for the program has come from members of government, the general business community and from all sectors of the insurance and risk management industry, both nationally and internationally. The U of C Bachelor of Commerce degree program is ·basedon a '2+2' model. Two years are spent on premanagement courses eIther in the Faculty of General Studies at the U of C, or at a recognized institution offering the required courses for admission to the Faculty of Management. The final two years are taken in the Faculty of Management, with students competing (demand for places exceeds supply) for admission In the third year of their degree program. An introductory course in Insurance and Risk Management is available to all management students in their "third year", that is their "first year" of the Bachelor program. This course covers risk analysis, risk management, principles of insurance, life and health insurance, property and liability insurance, and Canadian insurance institutions. It is a required course for students continuing in the insurance and risk management concentration. Students are also required to take a course on the legal environment, which includes an analysis of the framework of law that establishes rules of conduct among business people and influences business policy. In fourth year, students specializing in Insurance and Risk Management choose a concentration in life and health insurance or in property and liability insurance or in nsk management. Each stream has two required courses with one a prerequisite for the other. All students are also required to take a course in Environmental Risk Management and a course entitled Selected Topics in Insurance and Risk Management. For further information, contact: The University of Calgary, Faculty of Management, 2500 University Drive N.W., Calgary, Alberta, Canada TIN 1NA. 18 rrn13 The Geneva Association International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics, Geneva 18 chemin Rieu 1208 Geneva, Switzerland phone 022-347.09.38 / FAX 022-347.20.78 SUMMARY OF THE M.O.R.E. PROGRAMME OF THE GENEVA ASSOCIATION . (M.O.R.E.: Management of Risks in Engineering) THE "M.O.R.E." SEMINARS: 1. 2. 3. 4. S. 6. 7. 8. RISK AND INSURANCE ECONOMICS EDUCATION FOR ENGINEERS, Proceedings of the First-International MORE-Seminar,· held in· London on June 17, 1983;· published in "Etudes et Dossiers" Nr. 73, October 83. MANAGEMENT OF RISK IN ENGINEERING, the Papers of the Second International MORE-Seminar of the Geneva Association, held in London on June '1i3/'l9, 1984 were published in "Etudes et Dossiers" Nr. 84, November 1984. RISK MANAGEMENT AND ENGINEERING, the Papers of the Third MORE-Seminar, held in Glasgow on April 17-19, 1985 were published in "Etudes et Dossiers" Nr. 94, October 1985. PROCEEDINGS OF mE 4th MORE SEMINAR, held at Trent Polytechnic, Nottingham on April 22, 1987 were published in "Etudes et Dossiers" Nr. 116, October 1987. PROCEEDINGS OF mE Sth MORE SEMINAR, held in Karlsruhe on November 18/19, 1987 were published in "Etudes et Dossiers" Nr. 128, October 1988. MANAGEMENT .oF,. RISKS.IN,ENGINEERING..CONFERENCE 1988, the 6th .MORESeminar was held in London on October 26-'1i3, 1988. THE DESIGN OF TECHNICAL SYSTEMS, papers of the 7th MORE-seminar held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH in ZUrich on February 8/9, 1990 were published in Etudes & Dossier Nr. 146, May 1990. THE RISK MANAGEMENT OF AND INVOLVING COMPUTERS AND ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT, papers of the 8th MORE-Seminars held in Liverpool on March 3/4, 1992, were published m "Etudes & Dossiers" no. 170, August 1992. THE "M.O.R.E." - STUDIES: THE TEACHING OF RISK AND INSURANCE ECONOMICS FOR ENGINEERS IN THE UK, THE SCANDINAVIAN COUNTRIES AND HOLLAND, by D. Sutherland; published in "Etudes & Dossiers· Nr. 79/&J, April/May 1984. 3 YEAR BA COURSE IN RISK MANAGEMENT AT mE GLASGOW COLLEGE OF TECHNOLOGY, presented by Prof. Gordon Dickson and 4 students; available on video cassette (cost Sfr. 20 for non-members). THE RISK MANAGEMENT NEWSLETTER published bi-annually by the Geneva Association. THE GENEVA PAPERS no. 51, April 89: no. 53, Oct 89: no. 54, Jan 90: no. 56, July 90: no. 58, Jan 91: no. 64, July 92: Hazardous Waste Management Law and Economics of Professional Liability Insurance (I). Law and Economics of Professional Liability Insurance (II). Comparative Liability Studies, edited by Dr Werner Pfennigstorf. Studies in Law and Economics. 1. Risk Management today; 2. Studies on Climatic Change; 3. Managing Risk in the Catering Industry. ETUDES ET DOSSIERS no. 153 / March 1991: Risk Analysis in Ocean Exploitation and Management of Large Risks. no. 154 / April 1991: Crimes and Insurance. Analysis of the situation, causes and influences. no. 156 / July 1991: Law and Economics of Environmental Policy. Selected papers from the AELE conference in Paris, April 1991. no. 156 / August 1991:Airline insurance - Feast or Famine? Papers from the 11th Seminar on Risk and Society in London, May 3, 1991. no. 162/ Dec 1991: World Views and Strategies of Insurance Companies; Political risks in Perspective. Papers from the 18th General Assembly of the Geneva Association, June 10-11, 1991. continued on next page 19 rml3 no. 165/ Feb 1992: Case studies in risk management: The Catering Market in the U.K and France. no. 166/167 / March/April 1992: Papers from the Fourth Seminar on Strategic Issues and Planning in London, October 1991 (includes sessions on Climatic Change, Telecommunications, Strategic Planning). OTHERS Industrial Risk Management: A life-cycle Engineering Approach; Bernold T. (ed.) (1990) Elsevier Amsterdam. IirICXlnf.doc SCHEDULE OF CONFERENCES SPONSORED BY THE GENEVA ASSOCIATION . August 1992 • 1994 1992 July to December Sep 21-23, London 19th Seminar of The European Group of Risk and Insurance Economists. Sep 23, London 9th Geneva Lecture by Mr J.F.M. Peters, President AEGON, on 'Patterns of Internationalization for Insurance'. Sep23, London .. Ath Geneva Risk.ancUnsurance.Economics Lecture by Prof Michael J. Brennan, University of California, Los Angeles, on 'Aspects of Insurance and Intermediation'. Sep 28, Geneva 8th Annual Seminar on the Service Economy 'PROGRES Seminar' (Research Programme on the Service Economy). Sep 29, Geneva 3rd Conference of ASEC, Applied Service Economics Center. Oct 16, Wien 10th Geneva Lecture by Mr Hans-Dieter Sellschopp, Mitglied des Vorstands der Miinchener Ruck, on 'Aktuelle Fragen der Umwelthaftung und ihre Versicherung', organised in collaboration with the Miinchener Ruck. April 5-6 Geneva 5th Seminar on "Law and Economics" (with the collaboration of BALE) European Association for Law and Economics). Mai 5-6, Geneva 5th Triannual Seminar of the "World Fire Statistics Center" in collaboration with the European Arson Institute. June 7-8, Vienna 20th General Assembly of the Geneva Association / 20. Jahresversammlung der Genfer Vereinigung / 20e Assemblee Generale de l'Association de Geneve June 7, Vienna 17th Annual Lecture. Sep 20-22, Rotterdam 20th Annual Seminar of The European Group of Risk and Insurance Economists. October 14-16, Venice 2nd Biannual Seminar of the Research Centers on Risk and Insurance (in collaboration with CESAR, Rome). November ZUrich M.O.R.E. 9· Seminar on 'Computer Risks Revisited' and 'Databanks and International Networks for Insurance'. Sep 19-20, Paris 21st Annual Seminar of The European Group of Risk and Insurance Economists. October London 5th Conference on "Strategic Planning and Issues in Insurance" 1993 1994 20 THE LIMITS TO CERTAINTY Facing Risks in the New Service Economy by Orio GIARINI and Walter R. STAHEL Foreword by Alexander King, Paris Preface by Bya Prigogine, Brussels Nobel Prize A book in the information series of the Club of Rome Published in English by Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, November 1989 (ISBN 0-7923-0468-3) Publie en fran~ais chez Presses polytechniques Romandes, Lausanne, janvier 1990 The Limits to Certainty is published under the auspices of the Club of Rome and is, in fact, a follow up to a report published by the Club in 1980, Dialogue on Wealth and Welfare, in which it was proposed that the limits to growth were the limits of a specific type of economic growth that had successfully been developed over a period of two centuries. Fundamentally, it has become clear that the present economic situation is not simply a "post-industrial" one, in the same sense that the Industrial Revolution was not only a "post-agricultural" economic phenomenon. The key to economic progress has always been the better allocation of resources, and the majority of resources available today are in the form of service activities. In order to measure and exploit such resources, one needs a theoretical frame of reference based on the notions of risk and uncertainty, rather than on the deterministic values based on a traditional economic system, assumed to be in equilibrium. Services mean performances, in real periods of time, which means that the identification of values must be based on probabilities: the assessment of the probability and cost of a distribution of events in the future. The Limits to Certainty with a Preface by Ilya Prigogine and a Foreword by Alexander King, is thus about the economic foundations of the "service economy".