contents - The Geneva Association
REPORTS FROM MAJOR CONFERENCES ON
MISCELLANEOUS INFORMATION AND PREVENTION NEWS
BOOKS, PUBLICATIONS, ARTICLES AND PAPERS RECEIVED
FUTURE CONFERENCES 1992/1993
NEW RESEARCH PROGRAMMES ON
RISK MANAGEMENT ISSUES
NEW COURSES ON RISK ISSUES
SUMMARY OF THE M.O.R.E.·PROGRAMME (Management of
Risks in Engineering) OF THE GENEVA ASSOCIAnON
CONFERENCES SPONSORED BY THE GENEVA ASSOCIATION
January 1992 - 1993
Editor: Walter R. Stahel
Geneva, September 21, 1992
printout September 21,199211:14 AM
This copy of the Risk Management Newsletter introduces a new feature.
Leading experts in the field of Risk
Management are asked to write a short
article on a subject of their choice, in
either English, German of French. Summaries of the 'Guest' Editorial' .Will be
provided in the two other languages, for
the convenience of our readers.
We hope to continue this new feature in the coming issues of this newsletter, with authors from different countries,
in order to 'expose' our readers to a variety of experts and their personal opinion
on risk management.
In order to make it easier for our
readers who are not familiar with that
language, we also'provide an extensive
summary in German and English.
Our first guest editor is Monsieur
Fran~ois Settembrino, President of AEAI,
Association Europeenne des Assures de
l'Industrie (European Risk Management
Association), Rue Montoyer 51, B-l040
The text gives the opinion of its
author only. Die deutsche Zusammenfassung findet sich auf Seite 4.
SUMMARY OF THE GUEST
"Is prevention cheaper than cure ?"
In his book The Management of Industrial
Risks' (1), A. Borghesi shows that a clear
distinction between loss prevention measures aimed at human or technical factors
In order to answer the question ''/s prevention cheaper than cure?" we would need
data and an objectivity that we do not have.
Nevertheless, authorities and experts seem
to agree on the necessity of prevention. In
the editorial of the March 92 issue of this
Newsletter, many examples that support this
view have been presented, including a new
initiative by the Swiss Chemical industry.
¥: Maquet (2) goes beyond the ideas of
Borghesi. He regards risk as an uncertain
future event which, as an idea, already disturbs the mind of the individual.
In order to gain clarity, the guest editor
suggests the following differentiation:
(a) objective loss prevention with convincing results
This is feasible in cases of high frequency,
such as polio, even if we still have to chose
the best prevention, e.g. 'dead' or 'living'
(b) subjective loss prevention without
In cases of isolated, potentially catastrophic
events, the economic feasibility of prevention is difficult to prove. If nothing happens,
prevention causes only higher costs; if things
go wrong, a disaster can often not be avoided despite preventive measures. This kind
of prevention can still be justified as it
reduces .the uncertainty involved.
(c) mandatory prevention by law and
The objectives of these measures are often
mixed up with those of objective or subjective prevention. Instead of equipping workers
with ear protection gear, for example, the
noise level of a machine could be reduced.
The success of such a measure could easily
be verified; it will be safer but also more
expensive - at least in the short term.
(d) loss prevention as 'shock absorber'
A company can be paralyzed by a unforeseen event, e.g. the kidnapping of the CEO,
or a disaster such as Bhopal. Only if all the
separate parts of a company have prepared
themselves for such an event can they hope
to cope with it. This training is a regular
routine for e.g. pilots; and it normally helps
to cope better even in emergencies other
than the one envisaged.
This type of differentiation according to
prevention measures, should help to show
the fallacy of a frequently heard misconception: ''/ only invest in prevention if it pays':
However, common sense has never reasoned this way. ''Prevention is cheaper than
cure" includes all kind of different types of
prevention, without clear distinction; isn't
this the better way to do it ?
Borghesi, Antonio (1985) The Management ofIndustrial
Maquet, Yves (1991) Insurance Premiums to finance risks
(p. 132); Bruy/ant, Bruxelles.
I "IS PREVENTION
Dans son livre "La Gestione dei Rischi di
Azienda" (1), Antonio Borghesi considere que,
quel que soit Ie programme de preventi9.:~. mis en
place dans une entreprise, on ne peut jamais faire
de bilan entre les aspects humains et psychologiques d'une part, et les aspects plus directement
Pour repondre a la question posee "Prevenir
vaut-il mieux que guerir?" il faudrait pouvoir etablir de maniere peremptoire, c'est-a-dire chiffres
en main, que des couts de prevention sont fmancierement defendables. Outre que ce genre de
calcul me parait particulierement presomptueux,
il ne faut pas oublier que I'observateur humain
apportera Ie poids subjectif de sa 'propre vision,
ce qui rejoint I'ambigulte soulignee par Antonio
Borghesi. A trop vouloir prouver, on fmit par ne
plus rien prouver du tout.
Or, a des degres divers, tout Ie monde, y
compris les autorites, semble persuade qu'il faut
prevenir. L'editorial de mars 1992 de la presente
publication en souligne I'importance et donne de
nombreux exemples, dont celui des Industries
Chimiques en Suisse n'est pas Ie moindre et particulierement ambitieux. 11 ne vise pas moins
qu'un enseignement obligatoire a I'egard des etudiants en Sciences Chimiques et Environnementales. Esperons que cet exemple sera suivi dans
les autres disciplines et que Ie Risk Management
fera partie du bagage intellectuel et scientifique
de tout un chacun dans un avenir proche.
Yves Maquet dans son dernier livre va plus
loin qu'Antonio Borghesi : "Le risque, dit-il, est
un evenement futur et incertain, dont I'idee qu'il
puisse se realiser perturbe Ie climat de securite
de quelqu'un" (2). Comment prevenir quelque
chose d'aussi subjectif ? En essayant d'y voir plus
clair, nous pourrions serier la ou les preventions
a) La prevention ••. avec resultats probants, ou
la prevention objective.
Lorsque la societe s'est trouvee en presence des
ravages de la polio, il lui a fallu de la patience et
de l'imagination. De la patience, pour decouvrir
I'origine de la maladie - et les milieux medicaux
et scientifiques ont eu fort a faire - et de I'imagination pour traiter la maladie. Avant que l'origine
exacte de la maladie, donc bien avant que I'idee
d'un vaccin soit consideree comme valable - il a
fallu inventer toute une machinerie - les poumons
d'acier, comme on les appelait - et d'autres
appareillages. La prevention provisoire a porte
sur la frequentation des bassins de natation. Lorsqu'un vaccin a ete trouve, il a fallu departager les
vaccins "vivants" et "morts", les risques inherents a
I'un ou a I'autre n'etant pas equivalents. A I'heure
" ... actuelle, ces questions ne se posent plus; Ie vaccin
est utilise d'une maniere suffisamment maitrisee
et la maladie a quasi disparu.
Lorsqu'on se trouve en presence de cas
nombreux et repetitifs, la prevention est donc
possible. Les resultats sont generalement mesurabIes. Deux terrains de predilection se presentent generalement a I'interieur des entreprises. 11
s'agit des accidents du travail et du risque automobile. Dne observation attentive des cas vecus
ont permis I'adoption de contre-mesures generalement efficaces, qui ont, eu pour premier avantage de diminuer la frequence des accidents. La
gravite des accidents est plus difficile a maitriser,
encore qu'une diminution de frequence entraine
generalement une amelioration generale. De plus
la prevention au niveau des machines passe par
des solutions techniques qui portent aussi sur Ie
risque potentiel et donc aussi sur la gravite. Pour
Ie risque automobile, la situation est plus £loue :
on a diminue les vitesses autorisees en agglomeration au moment meme OU on repensait la
circulation. Dans la plupart des villes on a rendu
la circulation moins rapide en multipliant les
obstacles, en interdisant meme certaines zones,
ou en specialisant la voie publique. La consequence en est une circulation ralentie de facto.
Est-ce la regie ou les embUches qui ont diminue
les consequences des accidents, la question reste
La prevention sans resultats, ou la preven-
Nous avons vu plus haut combien la prevention
etait relativement facile a defendre, lorsque les
frequences, et encore mieux, lorsque la gravite
d'accidents diminue de maniere significative. On
peut mesurer et chiffrer les resultats. 11 y a cependant de nombreux domaines ou, en I'absence de
phenomenes suffisamment repetitifs, on ne peut
malheureusement pas chiffrer les resultats.
Antonio (1985) La gestione de
Rischi di Azienda; Padova-Cedam.
Maquet, Yves (1991) Des primes d'assurances au fmancement des risques (p. 132);
Comment faire un parallele entre des couts et des
mesures de prevention et la non survenance
d'evenements dommageables. Un calcul "negatif'
de ce type releve d'une approche presqu'entierement subjective: comment relier la non realisation de quelque chose aux dispositions prises
pour que cela n'arrive pas. Des experiences
vecues demontrent d'ailleurs l'inverse : malgre les
precautions prises, Ie pire peut quand meme arriver: un entrepat HPR peut quand meme brwer
de fond en comble. C'est peut-etre la qu'il faut
trouver la clef de la prevention subjective. Elle ne
procede jamais d'un principe de certitude: "si j'ai
pris telles precautions, tel evenement ne se produira pas... !" Au contraire, elle part du principe
inverse et s'evertue a trouver des mesures propres a diminuer ou eviter des consequences trop
dramatiques. C'est un peu comme Ie second
circuit de freinage dans une voiture ou les parachutes dans un ascenseur. Si tout se passe bien,
les mesures prises· ne serviront"a" rien :. elles
auront meme augmente Ie cout initial. En entreprise, il faudra que l'organisation accorde une
certaine attention et une certaine valeur a la prevention subjective. Elle n'est pas du tout incompatible avec la prevention objective, mais el1e
procede d'une vision differente, plus conforme a
l'incertitude qui preside a notre futuro
c) Que dire de la prevention obligatoire ?
Referons-nous, pour mieux comprendre, aux regles, dispositifs et normes imposes d'office par la
regIementation, la legislation, les directives, les
conventions de toutes sortes.
Les prescriptions de securite et de prevention
sont innombrables et souvent camouflees dans
d'autres dispositions. Un immeuble d'usine sera
traite comme batiment, comme lieu de reunion,
comme lieu de travail d'un personnel qu'il faut
proteger et fera l'objet d'un permis d'exploitation,
d'un permis de batir, d'une obligation de couvrir
a l'egard du public qui y a acres, d'une inspection
technique, d'une supervision du corps des pompiers, de regIes specifiques de protection des
travailleurs, d'une medecine du travail etc...
Les dispositions prises relevent parfois de la
prevention objective, d'autre fois de la prevention
subjective et meme aussi des deux en meme
temps. Cela veut-il dire qu'il suffit de respecter
les regIes ainsi edictees ? Pour etre en ordre,
peut-etre que oui... encore qu'on n'est jamais sUr
d'avoir repondu a tout. Ce qui est probable, c'est
qu'il faudra y ajouter de la prevention subjective
ou objective selon Ie cas. Au lieu de donner des
protections acoustiques - d'ailleurs prevues par la
regIementation - aux travailleurs, je peux aussi
diminuer Ie bruit de fonctionnement d'une
machine ou d'un engin, et cela est mesurable objectivement... Si j'opte pour la seconde solution,
j'aurai fait oeuvre utile, mais cela risque de
couter plus cher... au debut du processus, tout au
. Mais sur la ligne du temps, les resultats seront
Enlin, iI y a la prevention/resilience
L'entreprise peut etre confrontee a des crises
diverses : un accident majeur (Bophal), une contamination de produit, accidentelle ou criminelle
(Perrier, les aliments pour bebes), Ie kidnapping
d'un des dirigeants... La liste est longue et ne
peut etre ramenee a des cas precis.
Tout ph6nomene de "business interruption"
. ·"'·pour·'n1importe' quelle' raison, doit etre aborde
d'une maniere telle que Ie corps constitue par
l'entreprise puisse reagir en temps voulu avec un
minimum d'efficacite. Mais pour y arriver, il faut
y avoir pense avant l'evenement - apres, il est
generalement trop tard.
Un resultat ne peut etre obtenu que si les
differents composants de l'entreprise ont ete entraines a travailler ensemble, a reflechir ensemble. Meme si les scenarios imagines, et il en faut
quelques-uns pour guider la reflexion, ne sont
presque jamais ceux qui se realisent, ils servirons
Les pilotes d'avion re~oivent, par Ie moyen
de simulateurs, un entrainement constant en vue
de situations exceptionnelles qu'ils ne rencontreront peut-etre jamais. Mais c'est probablement
cet entrainement qui a permis aux equipages de
rester maitres d'eux-memes dans les circonstances non prevues de detournements et de prise en
La strategie de Shell est egalement interessante a plus d'un titre. Ce groupe pratique la planification par scenarios, pour la raison simple que
la planification par previsions n'est plus possible
en raison des "forces incontrolables" qui gerent
l'economie. Les scenarios reconnaissent Ie facteur d'incertitude et offrent differentes manieres
de penser les problemes strategiques.
En matiere de risque c'est la meme chose
que pour l'economie : une bonne prevention/ resilience n'a d'autre hut que d'entrainer l'entreprise ase preparer a reagir en cas de besoin. Cet entrainement est la seule gymnastique qui prepare a
l'incertitude et prend Ie contre-pied de la prevention / procedure qui s'inscrit toujours dans
des previsions trop figees.
Cette maniere de serier les preventions est destinee a eviter une confusion trop repandue : "je
ne fais de la prevention que si c'est plus rentable".
En fait, la sagesse populaire ne s'est jamais
exprimee de cette maniere. Prevenir vaut mieux
que guerir englobe toutes les preventions possibles. N'est-ce pas mieux ainsi ?
ZUSAMMENFASSUNG ·DES GUEST ,.
"1st vorbeu2en billi2er als beilen ?"
1m Buch von A. Borghesi 'Vas Manage11Jent der Industrierisiken" (l) wird die
Uberlegung angestel!t, dass man, unabhiingig von den Schadenverhiltungsmassnahmen eines Untemehmens, nie eine klare
Bilanz ziehen kann, die zwischen menschlichen und technischen Faktoren unterscheidet.
Um die Frage ''Ist vorbeugen billiger
als heilen?" beantworten zu konnen, milsste
man ilber Zahlen und eine Objektivitiit verfilgen, die nicht vorhanden sind. Trotzdem
scheinen Behorden und Experten ilberzeugt
von der Notwendigkeit der Vorbeugung. 1m
Editorial dieses Newsletters vom Miirz 92
wurde diese Betrachtungsweise mit zahlreichen Beispielen untermauert, darunter
demjenigen der Chemischen Industrie der
1': Maquet geht in seinen Betrachtungen (2) ilber Borghesi hinaus: Risiko ist
ein zukilnftiges, ungewisses Ereignis, das als
Idee bereits das Sicherheitsgefilhl des
Um Klarheit zu gewinnen, schlagt der
'Guest Editor' vor, das Problem zu gliedem:
(a) die 'objektive' Pravention mit fiberzeugenden Resultaten
Sie ist moglich in Fallen einer hohen Zahl
von wiederkehrenden Erkrankungen wie
z.B. bei Kinderlahmung, wobei es u. U. noch
zu wahlen gibt zwischen 'lebenden' und
(b) die 'subjektive' Pravention ohne
1m Falle von singuliiren, grossen Schadenfallen ist der okonomische Nachweis oft
kaum zu erbringen: Wenn nichts geschieht,
hat die Priivention nur hohere Kosten
verursachi; wenn etwas ges'chieht," tritt oft
trotz Schadenverhiltungsmassnahmen eine
Katastrophe ein. Diese Art der Priivention
kann aber der Reduktion der Ungewissheit
wegen trotzdem angebracht sein.
(c) die obligatorische Pravention durch
Nonnen und Gesetze
Ihre Ziele mischen sich oft mit den Zielen
der objektiven oder gar der subjektiven Pravention. Statt Arbeiter mit Gehorschutzgermen auszurilsten, kOnnte,der Maschinenlarm vermindert werden - idne Massnahme,
deren Eifolg sich objektiv messen lasst. Die~
se letztere Massnahme ist sicher besser, aber
auch teurer, als die erstere - mindestens
(d) die Pravention als 'Stossdampfer'
Ein Untemehmen kann durch ein unvorhergesehenes Ereignis gelahmt werden: Die
Entfilhrung des Chefs, eine Katastrophe wie
Bhopal. Nur wenn die einzelnen Teile eines
Untemehmens sich im voraus auf diese Situation vorbereitet haben, wie Flugzeugpiloten dies regelmassig tun, kann die Situation
gemeistert werden; oft selbst in anderen als
den vorgesehenen Notsituationen.
Diese Art der Gliederung nach moglichen
Schadenverhiltungstypen sol! helfen, eine
haufige Verwirrung von der Art ''Ich ergreife
Priiventionsmassnahmen nur, wenn es sich
lohnt" aufzuzeigen; der gesunde Menschenverstand hat sich niemals so ausgedrilckt.
''Vermeiden ist besser als hei/en" umfasst
al!e moglichen Priiventionsarten, einzeln
oder kombinierte. 1st dies nicht die bessere
Antonio (1985) Dos Management
von Industrierisiken; Padova-Cedam.
Maquet, Yves (1991) Versichenmgspriimien als
Finanzienmg der Risiken (p. 132); Brnylant,
An English Summary of the Guest Edito-
rial can be found on page 1.
REPORTS FROM MAJOR CONFERENCES ON RISK
The M.O.R.E. 8 • SEMINAR on "The Risk Management of and involving Computers
and Electronic Equipment" was organised jointly by the Business School of the Liverpool Polytechnic and the Geneva Association. It took place at the Moat House Hotel,
Liverpool on March 3 and 4, 1992 (M.O.R.E. = Management of Risks in Engineering).
Approximately 40 participants took part in this seminar, that reserved a lot of time to
discussions on the papers presented. Most of these papers have been published in
"Etudes & Dossier" no. 170, August 1992.
Among thespeakers~and'subjects presented were the following:
Introduction, Walter R. Stahel, the Geneva Association
Rethinking Risk Assessment, Denis Smith and Trevor Sheldon, Liverpool
Risk Management Principles, F. Settembrino, Brussels
Cindynic Epistemology, Georges-Yves Kervern, Paris
Financial Scale for Disaster, Alf Keller, Bradford
The Role of Software Faults in System Failures in Engineering Construction
Programmes, Dr e.O. Bauer, HDI, Hannover
Education for Engineers on Risk Issues: a UK Case Study, John Reid, Glasgow
Bringing Risk Issues into Focus, Sir William Francis, London
GIS and Risk Management, Dr Tony Gatteral
Offshore Safety, Dr Don Lloyd
Macroeconomic Modelling, Dr John Thompson, Liverpool
Complexity, Vulnerability and the Failure of Computer Systems, Tom HorlickJones, London
Computer Modelling of Major Hazards/Risks, Dr Richard Griffiths, Manchester
Fire Risk Assessment and Computer Source Codes, Alan Beard, Edinburgh
Airbus Failures, Dr Des Hickie and Denis Smith
Several other subjects, such as
'The cost and Risk of Electromagnetic (In)Compatibility',
'Bank Cash Machines: Product Liability for Banking Services, the Case of Bank of
'Systemic Risk from Information Systems',
'Environmental Impairment Liability in the Recycling of Computers',
'Telephone Systems Failures and Consequential Loss',
'Product Uability, Computer Software Faults and Consequential loss
had originally been included, but had to be dropped due to the difficulty of finding a distinguished speaker to present the specific area.
In order to pick up on the MORE 8 - Seminar, as well as previous studies and seminars
on the subject of 'Computer Risks', the Geneva AssociatIOn has decided that the next
seminar in the MORE - series will be devoted again to this subject. We can therefore
The M.O.R.E. 9 - Seminar, to be held in Zurich in the first week of November 1993,
on the two subjects of
1. COMPUTER RISKS REVISITED (including software, hardware and networks)
2. DATABANKS AND INTERNATIONAL NETWORKS FOR THE INSURANCE
This is a first call for papers on these two areas, including papers with new insights on
the subjects that were presented or not at the Liverpool seminar in March 1992.
The 1991 Cost of Risk Survey, published in
April 1992 jointly by Tillinghast, a Tower
Perrin Company, and Risk and Insurance
Management Society, Inc., contains some
information on 'Risk control and loss prevention expenses. The cost of risk- concept
consists of (a) net insurance premiums; (b)
unreimbursed losses (self-insured, self-retained); (c) risk control and loss prevention
expenses; (d) administrative costs. A detailed review of this study is given in the section
''BOOKS AND PUBLICATIONS'~
(NZZ, Sep 7, 1992) Discovety of a U.S.
satellite wreck on an Italian glacier. A
group of mountain climbers has discovered
the wreck of a 'freshly fallen' U.S. satellite
on a glacier in the Stilfser .loch.national
park. The pieces are strewn over a wide
area, the largest measuring 70 centimeters,
filled with electronics and cables. The printed information on the wreck allowed to determine its origin. It is planned to examine
on site, and possibly recover, the wrecked
satellite, in order to determine its age.
(NZZ, Dec 11, 1991) The coldest winter of
the centuty in Europe was the headline of
an article last December. In the meantime,
Europe has just lived through what will probably be its hottest Summer in a long tIme.
The question of global warming or more
extreme weather is, of course, also linked to
that of a short-cycle greenhouse effect or a
long-cycle new ice age (following Dr
Hamacker's theory). The latter also predicts
an increase in the strength of the winds and
storms. Hurricane Andrew in August 92
would certainly support Hamacker.
(Le Monde, Feb 11, 1992) Call for a crises
science. Following the case last winter of an
AT&T power failure that closed almost all
airports on the U.S. East Coast, from
Washington to Boston, Patrick Lagadec, a
French researcher, calls for a more serious
attitude towards managing technology in
the future. The reason for the breakdown in
the U.S. was not a conceptual mistake; the
emergency, battery-based system took over
from the power generators as it was supposed to do. The reason was that when six
hours later, the batteries were exhausted
without anybody having noticed that the
power supply had switch to emergency sta-
tus. So the collapse of the telecom system
(Time, Sep 21, 92) The Arab Economic
Report, an annual study by leading financial
_.institutions in the Middle East, has calculated that the total price tag to Arab countries
for the Gulf War amounted to $620 billion.
The figure, which revised downwards an
earlier estimate of $800 billion, includes
damage to infrastructure in Kuwait ($160
billion) and Iraq ($190 billion), direct payments by Arab nations to the U.S., Bntain
and France for military intervention ($84
billion) and logistical support for allied
troops in Saudi Arabia($51 billion). Previous Pentagon estimates placed the U.S.
'.' cost of the war, at $61 ,billion. Of that, $7.1
billion was shelled out by American taxpayers - more than one-third of the annual
~ross domestic product' of Bangladesh
In addition, the Gulf War has meant an
end to the growth path of the Arab economies, bringing back the high inflation rates
of the 70's of 20%. Income from oil exports,
$101 billion in 1991, went back to $96 billion.
(Economist, Sep 12, 92) A Floridian economist reckons that damage from Hurricane
Andrew amounted to $17 billion - $20 billion. That is three times worse than the
costs inflicted by the last big tempest, Hurricane Hugo.
(New Scientist, Sep 12, 92) Disaster relief
needs satellite task force. When disaster
hits, communications are often lost. Yet
telecom are essential to rescue teams assessing damage, and to relief organisations
attempting to coordinate their responses.
Often, a satellite link is the only way to
rapidly reopen communications with the
(sda, Sep 2, 92) Ciba-Geigy, the Swiss chemical company, will have to pay the State of
Alabama the sum of approx. $100m over
the next ten years towards the cost of
decontamination of a former factory site. In
addition, the company has to reimburse the
State of Alabama for the cost of the analysis
the sum of $322'000. This is the result of a
agreement reached out of court. The con-
tamination dates from a time when chemicals such as DDT where produced on the
(ap, Sep 1, 92) More than a million lamb
have died in New Zealand during the worst
winter in 40 years. The figure could reach
1.5m animals. The financial damage is estimated at $40m.
(NYT, Aug 11, (92) In a~signof,"nuclear
power's decline, the directors of a utility in
Oregon voted yesterday to retire a plant in
1986, halfway through Its planned life of 40
years, because operating it is no longer considered worth the cost. The Trojan nuclear
power plant in Ranier, Ore., is not the first
reactor to be retired long before the projected end of its life, but at 1.1 million watts
it is the largest. About 20 nuclear power
plants around the country may face the
same fate as their steam generators age,
while other utilities have already, ·decided to .
(sda, Aug 4, 92) Approx 2'000 tons of toxic
waste resulting from the disastrous fire in a
chemical warehouse in Schweizerhalle, near
Basel, will probably be put in a underground cavern in Herfa-Neurode, Germany.
The waste resulted from the decontamination of the soil. According to tests of 10
tons, it would be technically and ecologically possible to incinerate the toxic waste;
however, the storage in the caverns is
cheaper than incineration. The cost of construction for the floatation plant to clean
the soil was about SFR 50m. The plant will
stop working in October 1992.
(Economist, June 27,92) The U.S. Supreme
Court has ruled, by a comfortable majority,
that cigarette companies may indeed be
sued under state personal injmy laws, and
that the warning labels on cigarette packets
(mandatory since 1966) do not protect them
from claims. The family of Rose Cipollone,
who died of lung cancer in 1984, has been
trying to bring a successful suit against the
companies whose products she smoked. But
there is a catch, or rather several. Claims
have to be predicated on the manufacturer's
duty not to deceive. Companies might also
be sued if they made allegedly false statements of material fact in advertising.
(NZZ, June 3, 92) Carbon fibers won the
Gulf War. In the first days of the Gulf war,
Tomahawk cruise missiles dropped thousands of reels of carbon fibers on all the
electrical substations in Iraq. The carbon
fibers unreeled, coverin~ the whole plants
and causing short cirCUIts everywhere and
leading to the breakdown of the Iraqi power
(NZZ, May 28, 92) An Australian court has
decided that passive smoking is a health
hazard. As a result of this, smoking in
public or at work may soon become a thing
of' the past iii. 'A.ustralia': The claimant, a
psychologist of the Health Department in
New South Wales, was awarded $80'000 by
the court. As a first result, the authorities
have made smoking in airports illegal
(smoking in airplanes has been illegal
already for some time).
(Economist, May 23, 92) Insurance claims
for the Los Angeles riots are expected to
(New Scientist, May 2, 92) Ouake risk
shakes'oil "ri~ designers. Earthcjuakes in the
North Sea may be a big enough danger to
force design changes in offshore oil rigs,
according to the British Geological Survey.
The BGS was commissioned by the Department of Energy in 1979 to assess the seIsmic
risk to offshore structures. The result of the
nine years of research have now been published by the Health and Safety Executive,
which took over responsibility for safety in
the North Sea after the Piper Alpha accident.
(ap, April 24, 92) An explosion of the
chemical 'Hexan' has claimed 200 dead and
hundreds of injured in Guadalajara, Mexico. It seems that the chemical seeped into
the sewer system of the town and blew up
(NZZ, April 17, 92) The health ministers of
all Australian states have decided that, in
the future, cigarette packages on sale in
Australia have to carry one of the following
warnings: "Smoking kills", "Smoking causes
dependency", "Smoking can cause lung
cancer", "Smoking causes harms to others".
These warnings have to cover one fourth of
the front. The back as well as one side of
the package have to ca~ several informations, which were specifIed by the health
(ap, April 15 to 19, 92) The flooding of an
underground tunnel system in Chicago, II..,
has knocked out the entire city center for at
least 24 hours. The electricity supply had to
be cut after a tunnel wall collapsed undergerous bacteria are regularly sent from one
neath the Chicago river. The water rushed
laboratory to another - through the post.
through the tunnel system and into the
The mailed microorganisms include genetibasements of the skyscrapers. The whole cally modified bacteria., yet a survey in the
'loop' of Chicago had to be evacuated,
Netherlands reveals that not one laboratory
including the Sears Tower, the tallest builpacked its samples properly. Damaged
ding in the world.
packa~es could leak genetically altered
orgamsms into the environment, say the
The tunnel system was build at the end
Dutch researchers. The UN Committee of
of last century by the Chicago Tu~el. ComE
pany 12 meters below the street surface in .. " - xperts, on -the Transportation-, of Dan~e·
h d l'
f h US
rous Goods lays down rules for postmg
samples of this kind. Yet laboratories do
order to facilltate t e e Ivery 0 t e ..
mail and of coal, and the evacuation of the
ashes from the boiler rooms of the tall builnot seem to apply them.
dings. For half a century, according to an
(New Scientist, April 4, 92) U.S. rethinks
article in the New York Times of May 13,
link between polio vaccine and HIV. Claims
92, the system served Chicago well, with 117
that contaminated polio vaccine could have
locomotIves and 3'000 freight cars shuttling
been the origin of AIDS are to be investigaamong the buildings.
ted afresh in the U.S.. At the centre of the
The reason for the disaster seem to be
theory is the plausible, if unlikely, speculalack of maintenance. In the 1950's, the tuntion that a direct forerunner of HIV contar
monkey cells that. we~e used tQ
nel system was re duce d to· au mg'as an
grow polio virus for the vaccines: Retroviruother refuse. In the 1960's it was abandoned
ses are similar, but not identical, to HIV
altogether. Utilities had taken over the tunthat have been found in many species of
nel system from the coal trade, and had
installed gas and electricity mains, but had
not accepted the task of keeping the tunnels
Yet all too often, custom officials have
in good repair. Is prevention cheaper than
seized equipment that relief workers have
cure? (see guest editorial, page 1 to 4). The
tried to take into stricken countries. SpeaNew York Times writes that the Great
kers at last week's World Space Congress
Chicago Flood of 1992 was caused by
called on international agencies to overforgetfulness. The reason for the flood
come barriers which stop such teams operaseems to be the sinking of new pilings in the
(ap, March 27, 92) An Indian court has
river in Summer 1991, without bothering to
know what might be in the ground already.
issued a arrest warrant for the retired presi(dpa., April 7, 92) A ~as explosion on the
dent of the Union Carbide Co., Warren
Wesley oilfield in Texas has caused an
Anderson, in connection with the Bhopal
earthguake of the magnitude 3.5 to 4
disaster of 1984. India will ask for extradi(Richter). One person was killed, at least 16
tion of Anderson. The Bhopal disaster has
other injured. The explosion occurred on a
claimed over 4'000 dead and 20'000 injured.
oilfield where large volumes of natural gas
It is the biggest industrial accident to date.
are stored in salt caverns underground.
(FT, March 25, 92) Getting the chemistry
wrong. No company is immune from crisis.
(Business insurance, April 6, 92) The ongoing conflict among state and federal
In the face of mounting lawsuits, political
courts interpreting the pollution exclusion
controversy and congressional investi~aclause in coml?rehensive general liability
tions, the Michigan-based Dow Cormng
insurance poliCIes has reached new extrecompany last week said it would withdraw
meso Two federal aJ?peals courts - the 1st
from the silicon breast implant business.
and 4th U.S. CirCUIt Courts of Appeal Silicone gel breast implants had been on the
each interpreting the pollution exclusion
market for decades and Dow had sold them
under New Jersey law last month reached
for almost 30 years. Yet last winter, a San
diametrically opposite results. The 1st CirFrancisco women was awarded $3.7m in
cuit ruled in favour of policyholders, while
dama~es and Dow Corning charged with
the 4th ruled in favour of insurers.
knOWIngly selling a defective product.
(New Scientist, April 4, 92) Mutant bacteria
The lack of corporate concern about
may escape from the mail. Potentially dansafety was not for lack of information.
Memos and internal documents dating from
1976 outline safety concerns from doctors,
sales agents and Dow employees.
In December 91, a women who suffered from a ruptured implant was awarded
$7.34m from the biggest maker of implants,
Dow Corning, according to another article
in The Economist, Jan 11, 92, entitled: The
price of beauty.
(Reuter, March 22, 92) British Airways has
ordered a check on all its Concorde aircraft,
after one of them has lost part of its tailfin
on a flight from London to the U.S.. This
was the third similar case within the last
three years. The part, 1.8 by 1.2 meters, was
lost in midair. The reason seems to be
cleaning liquids containing v.o.c. (volatile
organic compounds); these liquids are used
for cleaning the outside of the aircraft.
(Economist, March 7, 92),.Vandalism in the.
Tyneside area. Transport police (of British
Railways) have recently arrested over 100
people for vandalism on the line. Police
blame the trouble on signalling work that
has left behind a lot of redundant copper
cable. Many of the vandals hope to make a
bit of money on the copper, though some, it
seems, cannot distinguIsh between copper
and optic fibre. When they cut the wrong
one, all the signals tum red.
A similar problem exists in Eastern
Europe, and at least one railway accident in
Eastern Europe in September 92 seems to
have been caused by a missing copper signal
(Economist, March 7, 92) When animals
mysteriously go blind, people tend to ask
questions. In Punta Arenas, Chile, these
questions are likely to be about ozone.
From the southern-most city in the world,
you might, with suitably sensitive eyes, see
ultraviolet light streanung through the hole
in the ozone layer over Antarctica.
Farmers report that during the past
three years a small but ~rowing number of
sheep grazing at high altitudes have developed temporary blindness. The animals
usually recover their sight after six to eight
weeks. With regard to human, there has
been no increase in cases of skin cancer recently. However, the 30 long-term noncancer patients of the local dermatologist,
who are allergic to sunlight, have seen their
reactions grow more intense each year.
(Economist, March 7, 98) Ciba-Geigy is to
pay New Jersey $64.1m in fines and cleanup costs for two incidents involving lack of
control over dangerous waste.
(ap) On March 5, a Swissair Airbus A-31O200 had a close encounter with a Tiger fighter plane of the Swiss airforce. The fighter,
involved in an exercise with another plane,
crossed the flightpath of the Airbus in a
distance of 20-40 meters in front of the airliner, at a right angle.
(FT, March 3, 92) Dutch police confiscated
a $101'000 Ferrari 348 GTS after the car
was clocked doing 150mph in Amsterdam.
Dutch law allows the authorities to sell a
car breaking the speed limit by 44mph.
(Economist, Feb 29, 92) India's health statistics. About 1m people die in India each
year of diseases associated with diarrhoea,
",600~.ooO of lung .infections,. and. 500'000 of
measles. By comparison, the 103. people
known to have AIDS, according to government figures, do not seem much of a
problem. Yet there are well founded fears
that the disease could become India's
(Economist, Feb 22, 92) Oil tankers suffer £!:
Q.uarter of their major spills on Saturdays well over the seventh one might expect.
Nearly all the "extra" spills are due to
human error. One clue to the Saturday surplus is that the extra mishaps are not distributed evenly around the world. They happen in North America, Europe, and countries whose population is mainly Christian.
(Economist, Feb 5, 92) Theft UK insurance
payments rose by more than 60% for domestic properties and 20% for commercial
premises to a total of more than £800m last
year, according to figures released by ABI.
Fire damage pay-outs rose 1991 to £1.02bn,
half of which is thou~ht to be due to arson.
About £lOOm of this IS believed to be due to
policy holders setting fire to their own property to claim insurance money.
Other heavy loss making categories include theft of cars, where claims rose by
50%, and mortgage indemnity policies
which compensate lenders when properties
are repossessed. The figures for 1991 hi~h
li~ht the background of recession and rismg
(adg) For the record, it should be noted that
Michelangelo, the dreaded computer virus,
has flassed on the 6th March 1992 without
causmg a breakdown of the electronic
(NZZ, Feb 22/23, 1992) Fines for water
pollution. BP has been fined SFR 120'000
by the Geneva authorities for an accident
on Jan 26, in which 500'000 liters of kerosene leaked into the sewers and the Rhone
river. Due to the extreme cold weather at
the time of the acciderit, a potential catastrophe did not materialize.
(Reuter, Feb 22, 1992) Cholera victim in
California. Probably due to infected food on
board an Argentinean airplane, a passenger
died of cholera after the arrival in California. 8 further passengers have been infected
by the illness and have undergone treatment, another 52 show symptoms of the illness. The airplane transported 366 passen~ers. Aerolinas Argentinas thinks that the
Infected food was loaded ,in· Lima and has
dropped this destination from its flight schedule.
(dpa, Feb 23, 1992) Cancer in children postChernobyl. MDs from the cancer center in
Minsk, ex-USSR, have presented the conclusions of a study on cancer in children to
representatives of WHO (World Health Organisation) and the European Communities. The results are alarming; some types of
cancer have increased from 2 to 4 cases per
annum before the Chernobyl catastrophe,
to 54 to 120 cases p.a. in 1991. As a result of
this study, WHO and EC have decided to
start a programme of international collaboration on the subject of cancer post-Chernobyl.
ARTICLES AND PAPERS
'Cost of Risk Survey 1991' (April 1992, price US$
250), published jointly by Tillinghast, a Tower
Perrin Company, 200 West Madison Street,
Chicago, IL 60606;
and .Risk and. Insu,rance Management Society,
Inc., 205 East 42nd Street, New York, N.Y.
The '991 Cost of Risk Survey is the sixth
study coll~acted jointly by the RIMS and
Tillinghast. This survey documents the total cost
of risk for all participants, and by industry group
and fmancial size. Data collected was for calendar year 1990. The intent of the survey is to
assist risk managers, fmancial executives and
others in evaluating their organization's costs of
risk relative to other organizations of the same
size in the same industry. It also provides
important information regarding the structure
-. ., of, insurance. programs and 'organizational risk
management functions. The study contains an
Appendix on the methodology, how to use the
survey, comments on data reporting, and on
interpreting the results.
The cost of risk concept, as defmed by
Douglas Barlow, consists of (a) net insurance
premiums; (b) unreimbursed losses (self-insured, self-retained); (c) risk control and loss
prevention expenses; (d) administrative costs. In
addition, cost of risk may include net cost or
gain associated with a captive insurance company, either single parent or association, if the
organization participates in a captive.
A total 847 answers, out of 4'200 member
organizations of RIMS, were in sufficient detail
to be included in the analysis. Respondents
were located in 45 states and DC, as well as in 9
'Der globale Treibhauseffekt', Power News der ABB
Asea Brown Boveri, CH-5400 Baden, Schweiz.
'Deutscher Verein fUr Versicherungswirtschaft e.V.'
(1992) Abhandlungen zum Thema 'Kiinftige
Umwelten und Versicherungen'; in: Zeitscbrift
fUr die gesamte Versicherungswissenschaft, no.
1/2 1992, Verlag Versicherungswirtschaft,
'Earthquake Hazard Atlas 3. Italy (1992); LIRMA,
41/43 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AE.
'Etudes & Dossier' no. 170, August 1992: Papers of
the M.O.R.E. 8 - Seminar on 'The Risk Management of and involving Computers and Electronic Equipment', held in Liverpool March 3
and 4, 1992; published by the Geneva Association.
'Etudes et recherches 1991', publications et communications; INRS, Institut national de recherche et
de securite, 30 rue Olivier-Noyer, F-75680 Paris
Cedex 14, France.
'Environment and Development, towards a common
strategy of the South in the UNCED negotiations and beyond' (1992) South Centre, P.O.Box
228, CH-1211 Geneva 19; or P.O.Box 71000,
'Environment and Development in Hungary - a
Blueprint for Transformation'; International
Workshop on Institutional Design for Environmental Protection in Hungary; March 29 - April
FAST paper on "Come affrontare il problema deC
rifuti: Schema concettuale e linee operative;
Federazione delle associazioni scientifiche e
tecniche, Piazzale R. Morandi 2, 1-20121
'Forum on the International Legal Vulnerability of
Financial Information - Summary Record and
Statement of a Meeting in Toronto, CDN, on
Feb 28, 1990; Peter Robinson, 2 Weatherwood
Crescent, Nepean, Ontario K2E 7CfJ, Canada.
'Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, Issues and
Practice' no. 64, July 1992, contains three sections on
(1) Risk Management Today, with contributions
by H. Felix KIoman, Yacov Y. Haimes, William
W. Lowrance, Dennis Farthing, Vernon Leslie
Grove, Adam M. Finke~ James V. Davis, Judith
Lichtenberg and Douglas MacLean, Gordon
(2) Studies on climatic change, with contributions by J.L. Rasmussen, Gerhard A. Berz,
Andrew F. Dlugolecki, MJ. Tooley,
(3) Managing Risk in the catering industry, by
Published by the Geneva Association.
'Hazardous waste and human health' (1991) BMA
British Medical Association; Oxford University
'La psychologie de l'homme face awe risques' (1991)
revue 'Face au risque' du Centre national de
prevention et de protection, decembre 1991.
'L'energie nucIeaire en question' (1991); LeChercheet
l'amenagement du territoire, avril 1991.
'Les risques technologiques majeurs'; Le Monde du
11 revrier 1992.
'Proceedings of Giornata dell'Assicurazione' (1992)
Politecnico di Milano, 11 Marzo 1992, Milano.
'Report on the Forum held on Nov 1, 1991, on Quantifying Catastrophe Exposures in the UK'
(1992); LIRMA, 41/43 Mincing Lane, London
'Sun Alliance calls in expert systems for engineering
insurance' (1992) in: Insurance Systems Bulletin, May 1992, vol 7, no 9.
Backhaus, J. (1991) Umwelt und offentliche
Haushalte: Die Umweltsteuer und ihre Alter-
nativen; Faculty of Economics, Limburg University, NL-6200 MD Maastricht.
Duchin, Faye and Lange, Glenn-Marie (1992) Strategies for environmentally sound economic
development; this manuscript was prepared for
the U.N. conference on Environment and
Development that took place in Rio, June 1992.
The report turns a string of plausible
assumptions about what can be done to promote sustainable development over the next
···several decades - ·those of the Brundtland
Report - into a well-defmed scenario about the
actions that might be taken in all parts of the
world economy. It further proceeds to employ a
systems approach to quantifying the assumptions and analyzing the implications of the
The report fmds that the scenario is feasible from an economic point of view, especially
for the regions which are already industrialized,
but results in a significant expansion of pollution. In other words, the authors of the report
believe that the recommendations of the
Brundtland report cannot achieve the stated
Funtowicz, Silvio and Ravetz, Jerome (1987) The
arithmetic of scientific uncertainty; Phys. Bull 38
Gibbons, Robert J. (1992) Insurance Perspectives addresses some of the educational objectives of
CPCU 1: Ethics, insurance perspectives and
insurance contract analysis; American Institute
for Chartered Property Casualty Underwriters,
Malvern, PA 19355-0716.
Gruhler, Wolfram (1990) Dienstleistungsbestimmter
Strukturwandel in deutschen Industrieunternehmen, einzel- und gesamtwirtschaftlicher
Kontext, Determinanten, Interaktionen, empirischer Befund; Materialien der deutschen
Wirtschaft 6; Deutscher Instituts-Verlag, K6ln.
Heerwaarden, Angela van (1991) Ordering of Risks;
Thesis Publishers, Amsterdam.
Ince, Darrell and Andrews, Derek (1990) The Software Life Cycle; Butterworths Boston. Contains
papers on: Software product assurance;
measurement and control; Designing software
for provable correctness: the direction for quality software; Software testing techniques. (on this
subject, see also the proceedings of the MORE 8
Seminar in Liverpoo~ March 1992).
Kervern, Georges-Yves et Rubise, Patrick (1991)
l'archipel du danger; CPE Economica, Juillet
Lagadec, Patrick (1992) La gestion du futur - pour
une science des crises; Le Monde, 11 fevrier 92.
Lagadec, Patrick (1991) La gestion des crises;
Jean-Paul (1991) Le prix du risque l'economie au defi de l'environnement; Presses
du CNRS, Paris.
Markham, James J. (1992) Principles of Workers
Compensation Claims; Insurance Institute of
America, 72D Providence Road, Malvern, PA
of CPCU 1: Ethics, insurance perspectives and
insurance contract analysis; American Institute
for Chartered Property Casualty Underwriters,
Malvern, PA 19355-0716.
Meyer-Abbich, Klaus (1989) WWie sind Risiken in
Offentlicher Verantwortung zu rechtfertigen?;
in: ZRP 1989, Heft 10.
Winch, Graham, and Voss, Christopher (1992) Organisation Design for Integrating Technologies;
Warwick Business School Research Papers no.
9; University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL,
Ravetz, J.R. et al (1990) Biotechnology and Environmental Risk Assessment: Routine and Accidental Risks; EUR· 13060 EN (1990) AG.
Colombo and G. Premazzi, editors.
Russell, Milton et al (1991) Hazardous waste
. remediation - the task ahead: The University of
Tennessee, Waste Management Research and
Education Institute, 327 South Stadium Hall,
Knoxville TN 37996-0710, USA
Settembrino, Fran~ois (1992) Travail, retraite, postretraite a la Japonaise - un risk management
parmi d'autres; Risk no. 112/92, p. 32-34.
Takeuchi, Kei and Matsuoka, Hideo, ed. (1991)
Perspectives of advanced-technology society Prospects for Resource-Environment preserving
Civilization in the 21st Century; The Institute of
Statistical Research, Tokyo, Japan. (see also
section "New Research Programmes on Risk
Takeuchi, Kei and Matsuoka, Hideo, ed. (1991) An
Introductory Digest 1991 to Perspectives of
advanced-technology society - Prospects for
Resource-Environment preserving Civilization
in the 21st Century; The Institute of Statistical
Research, Tokyo, Japan. (see also section "New
Research Programmes on Risk Management
Talcot, Frederick W. (1992) How Certain is that
Environmental Risk Estimate?; in: Resources
for the Future, Spring 1992, no. 107, Washington DC 2D036-1400.
Webb, Bernard L. et al (1992) Insurance Operations
volland 2; American Institute for Chartered
Property Casualty Underwriters, Malvern, PA
19355-0716. Insurance Operations is the textbook for CPCU 5.
Welch, John et al (1992) Contract survey vol 1 and 2;
Insurance Institute of America, Malvern PA
Contract survey is one of five courses leading to
the Associate in Fidelity and Surety Bonding
White, George A et al (1992) Organizational Behavior in Insurance, vol. I and II; Insurance Institute of Americy, 72D Providence Road, Malvern,
White, Peter, et al (1992) International comparisons
of bus and coach safety; proceedings of World
Conference on Transport Research in Lyon,
June 29, 1992.
Wiening, Aric A (1992) Insurance Contract Analysis
- addresses some of the educational objectives
(jor conferences sponsored by the
Geneva Association, see pages at end of
Feb 12-13 Risiko- und umweltbewusstes
Management in der chemischen
Industrie, Leipzig Germany
Umweltakademie, at! Ms Haberle, c/o DLR, D8031 Oberpfaffenhofen Gennany, fax 0049.8153281444.
16-19 Global Super Projects Conference, Honolulu, Hawaii
World Development Counci~ 40 Technology
Park/Atlanta, Norcross Georgia 3()()92-9934,
phone (404) 446-6996, fax (404) 263-8825.
23-27 1992 Annual Meeting of the
Society of Toxicology, Seattle
SOT, 110114th St., N.w., Suite 1100, Washington DC 20005, phone 001.202-3711393, fax
24-25 Industrieversicherung 92,
IIR, Lyoner Str 15, D-6000 Frankfurt 71, phone
0049.69-664430, fax 69-66443 222.
IIR, Lyoner Str 15, D-6000 Frankfurt 71, phone
0049.69-664430, fax 69-66443 222.
March 17 SECURICOM 92, World
Congress on computer and
communication security and
22 EDV im Umweltschutz: Datenschutz und Datensicherung
SECURICOM 92, Blenheim Group, 22-24 roe du
President Wilson, F-92532 Levallois-Pe"et
Cedex, France, phone 0033.1-47565000, fax 147569049.
Umweltinstitut Offenbach, Nordring 82B, 6050
Offenbach, phone 0049-69.81 06 79, fax 004969.823493.
25 Managing Environmental Accidents, London
9-12 12e Semaine internationale de
l'informatique dans l'assurance,
Travel for Industry" Victory House, J4v Leicester
Squ,are, London WWC2H 7NG, phone 0044.714390964.
C4PA, 17 rue Lafayette, F-75009 Paris, phone
0033.1-48 74 93 83, fax 1-48 74 94 11.
April 27-28 The Total Quality Management Conference, Brussels
MCE, rue Caroly 15, B-1040 Brussels, phone
0032.2-5161911, fax 2-5161911.
May 5-7 World conference on health emergencies in technological disasters,
Dipantimento della Protezione Civile, Servizio
Emergenza Sanitaria; Via Ulpiano 11,1-00913
Roma Italy, phone 0039.6-65 18258, fax 6-65 18
10-14 World Insurance Encounter I
Secretariat c/Santa Engracia 151, E-28003
Madrid, phone 534 1536,
fax 533 6196 and 5351418.
12-14 6th Int'l ISSA-Colloquium on
Machine SaCety, Aachen
Sektion Maschinenschutz ISSA. c/o Berufsgenossenschaft Nahrongsmitte/ und Gaststiitten,
Dynamostrasse 7-9, 6800 Mannheim 1 FRG,
phone 0621-4456-213/200, fax 0621-4456-214.
14-15 Environment and Development Conflict and Convergence,
June 10-11 The Third Luxembourg
Risk Financing and Risk Management
RIRG, 4 Henrietta Street, Covent Garden, London WC2E 8PS, phone 0044-71.836 0614, fax
10-12 European Safety and Reliability
Conference '92, Copenhagen Denmark
Kurt E Petersen, System Analyis Dept, Riso
National Laboratory, POBox 49, 400 RosJdlde
Denmark, phone 0045-42 37 12 12, ext. 3082, fax
0045-46 75 71 01.
14-17 ECO WORLD Washington DC
Michele Voso, American Society of Mechanical
Engineers, 345 East 47th St., New York, NY
10017, phone 001.212-705 7148, fax 212-7057143
14-19 ISWA CONGRESS 1992:
Towards Future Practice, Madrid,
Julian Uriarte Jaureguizar, ATEGRUS, P.O.Box
1664, 48080 Bilbao, Spain, fax ~6.444.34.
Geneva Environment Meetings, 58 roe de la
Te"assiere, 1207 Geneva, Switzerland.
21-26 Shaping our national heritage,
18-19 International Liability, Paris
A&WMA, POBox 2861, Pittsburgh, PA 15230,
MCE, roe Caroly 15, B-1040 Brussels Belgium.
18-20 CABS 92 - Computer-Aided
Ergonomics & SaCety, Tampere
Tampere University of Technology, Ms. Kirsti
Tikka, POBox 527, SF-33101 Tampere, Finland,
phone 00358.31-162 400, fax 31-162164.
18-22 5th Int'l Meeting on Risk and
Security Management Cor Insurance Companies, Marbella Spain
Fundacion MAPFRE Estudios, Palaute Monte
el Pilar, sin E-28023 El Placio /Madrid/Spain,
phone 0034.1-6262331/307 66 42, fax 1-626 23
25-26 Eco-Audit and Environmental
Management Systems, London
Miriam Dean, Management Programme, Brunei
University, Uxbridge, Middlesex, UB83PH,
July 6-9 SPT-4 Structural Failure, Product
Liability and Technical Insurance,
Dr H P Rossmanith, Institute of Mechanics, TU
Vienna, Wiedner Hauptstrasse 8-10/325, A-1040
(for conferences sponsored by the
Geneva Association, see pages at end of
Managing Safety in the 2000's,
Industrial Mutua~ Dr Karl Hiikkinen, tel
(3580) 69612312, fax 69612232.
20-25 Recovery of Biological Products
Engineering Foundation, 345 East 47th Street,
New York, N. Y. 10017, USA, phone 001.212-705
7835, fax 212-705 7441.
19, Seminario EPACf per i
responsabili della distribuzione
nell' industria petrilifera italiana,
Fiere di Parma, Italy
EPACT, PO Box 344; NL-3840AH Harderwijk,
Netherlands, phone (31) 3410-22424, faax (31)
19-22, Rio Report and Global Energy
World Energy Coalition, Kellerweg 38, CH-8055
3Q-Oct 3 2nd Int'l Conference on
Burns and Fire Disasters:
Perspectives 2000, Palermo Italy
22-23, Hazard Contol at the Workplace
, . -.Research,and Deyelopment of
new risk prevention strategies, . .
Conf. secr. c/o Diyisione die Chirurgia Plastica e
Terapia delle Ustion~ Ospedale Ciyico, Via C.
Lazarro, 1-90127 Palenno, phone 0039.91-666
3631, fax 91-596 404.
INRS, 4e Colloque du Comite AISS, Recherche,
Skomik, 30 rue Olivier-Noyer, F-75680
Paris Culex 14, France, fax +33-1-404 30 99.
Workshop on Perspectives and
Trends in Safety and Reliability,
Prof C Guedes Soares, ESRA General Secretary,
Apanado 1690, 1016l&J.wJ. Codex, Portuga~ fax
Gene Technology and Biodiversity,
on the Risk Assessment of
Genetically Modified Organism,
SAGUF, c/o UNA, Moserstr 22, CH-3014 Bern,
Switzerland, phone (031) 654127; fax (031) 65
5-7, ENTRE '92, X Intereuropean
Reinsurance Meeting, Madrid
INESE, Santa Engracia 151, E-28003 Madrid,
phone 534 15 36, Fax 53361 96.
Nov 11-13, Nordisk Risk Management
Unirisk AB, United Risk Management
Consultants, Box 5401, S-1l4 84 Stockholm,
phone +46-8-660 45 65, fax +46-8-6617970
23-25 Safety in Road and Rail Tunnels, Basel
Mrs Judy Whitham, Independent Technical
Conferences Ltd., POBox 452, Kempston, Bedford MK43 9PL, phone 0044-234.854 756, fax
24, PC Security and Viruses, London
IBC Technical Services Ltd, 57-61 Mortimer
Street, London WIN 7TD, IK.
13-16, Security '92, Essen
25-26, Betriebliche Umwelthaftung,
Messe Essen, Norbertstr D-W-43oo Essen,
Gennany, phone (0201) 72440.
Institute for International Research, Lyoner
Strasse 15, D-W-6000 Frankfurt M. 71, Gennany.
30-Dec 1 Software and Systems
Practice: Social Science
Perspectives, Reading UK
PICT University of Oxford, The Labortories, Mill
Stree~ Osney OX2 ODI, UK. phone (0865)
278721, fax i:j "65) 278720.
Jan 24-29, Pollution Prevention III Making it Pay! San Diego, CA
Engineering Foundation, 345 East 47th
Street, New York N.Y. 10017, phone (212)
705-7836, fax (212) 705-7441.
March 28-April 2, Role of the clean air act
in implementing pollution
prevention, Palm Coast, Florida
Engineering Foundation, 345 East 47th
Street, New York N.Y. 10017, phone (212)
705-7836, fax (212) 705-7441.
May 19-21 PICf National Conference 93:
European Dimensions in
information and communication Panacea or Pandora's Box?
Kenilworth, Warwickshire, UK
PICT University of Oxford, The Labortories, Mill
Street, Osney OX2 ODI, UK, phone (0865)
278721, fax (0865) 278720.
19-21, Safety and Reliability Assessment - an integral approach,
VDI-GIS, P.O. Box 10 11 39, D-WW-4000
Dusseldorf, Gennany, phone +49-211-6214.262,
June 13-17, Biotechnology in Europe, 6th
European Congress on
Biotechnology, Florence, Italie
ECB&, c/o Organizzazione Intemazionale
Congress~ Via G. Modena, 20, 1-50121 Firenze,
Aug 9-13, ICOSSAR '93, 6th Int'l
Conference on Structural Safety
and Reliability, Innsbruck, Austria
ICOSSAR 93 c/o Institut fUr Mechanik,
Universitiit Innsbrock, Technikerstr 13, A-6020
3Q-Sep 1 Safety Pays ! Safety in interaction with quality, productivity
and economy, Lu¥ano
15th Int'l SympOSIUm
ISSA Chemistry Section, c/o BG Chemie, Postfach 10 14 80, D-6900 Heidelberg Gennany.
Oct 14-16, Insurance's prospects as regard
the EC and the international
, '. '.. exchanges'of services; and
The new organization of work and
professional training in the
CESAR, Piazza dell'EsquiIino 5, 1-00185 Roma,
PROGRAMMES ON RISK
In 1991, Tillinghast, a Tower Perrin Company, and Risk and Insurance Management Society, Inc., jointly conducted
a Cost of Risk Survey that was
published in April 1992.
The 1991 Cost of Risk Survey is
the sixth study conducted jointly by the
RIMS and Tillinghast. This survey
documents the total cost of risk for all
participants, and by industry group and
financIal size. Data collected was for
calendar year 1990. The intent of the
survey is to assist risk managers, financial executives and others in evaluating
their organization's costs of risk relative to other organizations of the same
size in the same industry. It also provides important information regarding
the structure of insurance programs
and organizational risk management
functions. The study contains an
Appendix on the methodology, how to
use the survey, comments on data
reporting, and on interpreting the
The cost of risk concept consists of
(a) net insurance premiums; (b) umeimbursed losses (self-insured, selfretained); (c) risk control and loss prevention expenses; (d) administrative
costs. A detailed review of this study is
given in the section "BOOKS AND
Perspectives of advanced-technology society
- Prospects for Resource-Environment
preserving Civilization in the 21st Cen~ is one of the scientific research
projects on priority areas sponsored by
the Ministry of Education, Science and
Culture of Japan. This programme will
be conducted over a period of five
years, 1990 - 1995. PartIcipants of this
research are formed into 40 teams each
with its special topic of study, and one
general coordinatIon team. A summary
, of the research of each team in the
second year (1991) has been published
in March 1992 by The Institute of Statistical Research, Tokyo, Japan. (see
Kei et al, in the section
''BOOKS AND PUBLICATIONS'').
Quake risk shakes oil rig designers. Earthquakes in the North Sea may be a big
enough danger to force desi~ changes
in offshore oil rigs, accordmg to the
British Geological Survey. The BGS
was commissioned by the Department
of Energy in 1979 to assess the seismic
risk to offshore structures. The result
of the nine years of research have now
been published by the Health and
Safety Executive, which took over
responsibility for safety in the North
Sea after the Piper Alpha accident. A
summary of thIS research has been
published in the New Scientist, May 2,
92, page 10. The study is available from
the Health and Safety Executive, London.
'The Management of Risks to Employees
and Consumers of the Catering Indust1)' in the United Kingdom and France'
is the title of a case study undertaken
by Consultex on behalf of the Geneva
Association on the employee and
public liability risks involved in the
catering industry. The new.Food Safety
Act in the UK that came into force in
1991 has been a watershed event, that
led the Geneva Association to look at
this area for the first time in some
Eating outside the home, whether
in institutional, office/factory or commercial caterin~ establishments is a
vast and increasmg business. It involves
the preparation and serving of millions
of meals per day in Europe. The
spending on meals outside the home
(not counting drinks) is about 40% of
the total amount spent in purchasing
food in retail stores for home
consumption. In America, as the
American housewife has essentially
stopped cooking, purchases of meals
outSIde the. home, including take out
meals, is now larger than retail food
Two detailed country reports were
produced for France and the UK which
show the structure and size of the
catering market, the main economic
agents, the food hygiene stipulations
and enforcement procedures, the main
employee and public claims related to
the catering business and case histories
of large catering groups.
The detailed case studies were published
in the ''Etudes & Dossiers" series of the
Geneva Association, no. 165, February
1992. A summary was published in the
Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance,
Issues and Practice, no. 64, ·luly J992.
Foundation for loss prevention of the Winterthur Insurance Companies, P.O.Box,
CH-8401 Winterthur. Actions in several specific areas, such as the prevention of road accidents involving
'Etudes et recherches 1991', publications et
communications; INRS, Institut national de recherche et de securite, 30 rue
Olivier-Noyer, F-75680 Paris Cedex 14,
NEW COURSES ON RISK
The University of Calgary, Canada, has
started the first course on insurance and
Risk Management in Canada, under the
auspices of the Faculty of Management.
The mid-80s saw the introduction of
courses in insurance administration at
Grant MaxEwan Community College
in Edmonton and Mount Royal College in Calgary. Graduates of these
programs were snapped up by the
Alberta insurance sector. A national
feasibility study to tap stakeholder
needs in insurance traimng and management revealed a ready market for
university-qualified insurance professionals. Signals of strong industry interest and support indicated that the time
for university insurance education in
Canada had arrived.
So, in 1987, when the Province of
Alberta agreed to double-match industry-generated funds for a proposed new
insurance and risk management specialization, the University of Calgary con-
fidently committed to the undertaking.
Support for the program has come
from members of government, the
general business community and from
all sectors of the insurance and risk
management industry, both nationally
The U of C Bachelor of Commerce
degree program is ·basedon a '2+2'
model. Two years are spent on premanagement courses eIther in the
Faculty of General Studies at the U of
C, or at a recognized institution offering the required courses for admission
to the Faculty of Management. The
final two years are taken in the Faculty
of Management, with students competing (demand for places exceeds
supply) for admission In the third year
of their degree program.
An introductory course in Insurance
and Risk Management is available to
all management students in their "third
year", that is their "first year" of the
Bachelor program. This course covers
risk analysis, risk management, principles of insurance, life and health insurance, property and liability insurance,
and Canadian insurance institutions. It
is a required course for students continuing in the insurance and risk management concentration. Students are
also required to take a course on the
legal environment, which includes an
analysis of the framework of law that
establishes rules of conduct among
business people and influences business policy.
In fourth year, students specializing in
Insurance and Risk Management
choose a concentration in life and
health insurance or in property and liability insurance or in nsk management.
Each stream has two required courses
with one a prerequisite for the other.
All students are also required to take a
course in Environmental Risk Management and a course entitled Selected
Topics in Insurance and Risk Management.
For further information, contact: The
University of Calgary, Faculty of
Management, 2500 University Drive
N.W., Calgary, Alberta, Canada TIN
The Geneva Association
International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics, Geneva
18 chemin Rieu
1208 Geneva, Switzerland
phone 022-347.09.38 / FAX 022-347.20.78
SUMMARY OF THE M.O.R.E. PROGRAMME OF THE GENEVA ASSOCIATION
. (M.O.R.E.: Management of Risks in Engineering)
THE "M.O.R.E." SEMINARS:
RISK AND INSURANCE ECONOMICS EDUCATION FOR ENGINEERS, Proceedings of
the First-International MORE-Seminar,· held in· London on June 17, 1983;· published in
"Etudes et Dossiers" Nr. 73, October 83.
MANAGEMENT OF RISK IN ENGINEERING, the Papers of the Second International
MORE-Seminar of the Geneva Association, held in London on June '1i3/'l9, 1984 were
published in "Etudes et Dossiers" Nr. 84, November 1984.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND ENGINEERING, the Papers of the Third MORE-Seminar,
held in Glasgow on April 17-19, 1985 were published in "Etudes et Dossiers" Nr. 94, October 1985.
PROCEEDINGS OF mE 4th MORE SEMINAR, held at Trent Polytechnic, Nottingham on
April 22, 1987 were published in "Etudes et Dossiers" Nr. 116, October 1987.
PROCEEDINGS OF mE Sth MORE SEMINAR, held in Karlsruhe on November 18/19,
1987 were published in "Etudes et Dossiers" Nr. 128, October 1988.
MANAGEMENT .oF,. RISKS.IN,ENGINEERING..CONFERENCE 1988, the 6th .MORESeminar was held in London on October 26-'1i3, 1988.
THE DESIGN OF TECHNICAL SYSTEMS, papers of the 7th MORE-seminar held at the
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH in ZUrich on February 8/9, 1990 were published in Etudes & Dossier Nr. 146, May 1990.
THE RISK MANAGEMENT OF AND INVOLVING COMPUTERS AND ELECTRONIC
EQUIPMENT, papers of the 8th MORE-Seminars held in Liverpool on March 3/4, 1992,
were published m "Etudes & Dossiers" no. 170, August 1992.
THE "M.O.R.E." - STUDIES:
THE TEACHING OF RISK AND INSURANCE ECONOMICS FOR ENGINEERS IN THE UK,
THE SCANDINAVIAN COUNTRIES AND HOLLAND, by D. Sutherland; published in
"Etudes & Dossiers· Nr. 79/&J, April/May 1984.
3 YEAR BA COURSE IN RISK MANAGEMENT AT mE GLASGOW COLLEGE OF TECHNOLOGY, presented by Prof. Gordon Dickson and 4 students; available on video cassette
(cost Sfr. 20 for non-members).
THE RISK MANAGEMENT NEWSLETTER
published bi-annually by the Geneva Association.
THE GENEVA PAPERS
no. 51, April 89:
no. 53, Oct 89:
no. 54, Jan 90:
no. 56, July 90:
no. 58, Jan 91:
no. 64, July 92:
Hazardous Waste Management
Law and Economics of Professional Liability Insurance (I).
Law and Economics of Professional Liability Insurance (II).
Comparative Liability Studies, edited by Dr Werner Pfennigstorf.
Studies in Law and Economics.
1. Risk Management today; 2. Studies on Climatic Change; 3. Managing Risk in
the Catering Industry.
ETUDES ET DOSSIERS
no. 153 / March 1991: Risk Analysis in Ocean Exploitation and Management of Large Risks.
no. 154 / April 1991: Crimes and Insurance. Analysis of the situation, causes and influences.
no. 156 / July 1991: Law and Economics of Environmental Policy. Selected papers from the
AELE conference in Paris, April 1991.
no. 156 / August 1991:Airline insurance - Feast or Famine? Papers from the 11th Seminar on
Risk and Society in London, May 3, 1991.
no. 162/ Dec 1991: World Views and Strategies of Insurance Companies; Political risks in Perspective. Papers from the 18th General Assembly of the Geneva Association, June 10-11, 1991.
continued on next page
no. 165/ Feb 1992:
Case studies in risk management: The Catering Market in the U.K and
no. 166/167 / March/April 1992: Papers from the Fourth Seminar on Strategic Issues and Planning in London, October 1991 (includes sessions on Climatic Change,
Telecommunications, Strategic Planning).
Industrial Risk Management: A life-cycle Engineering Approach; Bernold T. (ed.) (1990) Elsevier
SCHEDULE OF CONFERENCES
SPONSORED BY THE GENEVA ASSOCIATION
. August 1992 • 1994
July to December
19th Seminar of The European Group of Risk and Insurance
9th Geneva Lecture by Mr J.F.M. Peters, President AEGON, on
'Patterns of Internationalization for Insurance'.
.. Ath Geneva Risk.ancUnsurance.Economics Lecture by Prof Michael
J. Brennan, University of California, Los Angeles, on 'Aspects of
Insurance and Intermediation'.
8th Annual Seminar on the Service Economy 'PROGRES Seminar'
(Research Programme on the Service Economy).
3rd Conference of ASEC, Applied Service Economics Center.
10th Geneva Lecture by Mr Hans-Dieter Sellschopp, Mitglied des
Vorstands der Miinchener Ruck, on 'Aktuelle Fragen der Umwelthaftung und ihre Versicherung', organised in collaboration with the
5th Seminar on "Law and Economics" (with the collaboration of
BALE) European Association for Law and Economics).
5th Triannual Seminar of the "World Fire Statistics Center" in collaboration with the European Arson Institute.
20th General Assembly of the Geneva Association /
20. Jahresversammlung der Genfer Vereinigung /
20e Assemblee Generale de l'Association de Geneve
17th Annual Lecture.
20th Annual Seminar of The European Group of Risk and Insurance
2nd Biannual Seminar of the Research Centers on Risk and Insurance (in collaboration with CESAR, Rome).
M.O.R.E. 9· Seminar on 'Computer Risks Revisited' and
'Databanks and International Networks for Insurance'.
21st Annual Seminar of The European Group of Risk and Insurance
5th Conference on "Strategic Planning and Issues in Insurance"
THE LIMITS TO CERTAINTY
Facing Risks in the New Service Economy
by Orio GIARINI and
Walter R. STAHEL
Foreword by Alexander King, Paris
Preface by Bya Prigogine, Brussels
A book in the information series of the Club of Rome
Published in English by Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, November 1989
Presses polytechniques Romandes, Lausanne, janvier 1990
The Limits to Certainty is published under the auspices of the Club of Rome and is,
in fact, a follow up to a report published by the Club in 1980, Dialogue on Wealth
and Welfare, in which it was proposed that the limits to growth were the limits of a
specific type of economic growth that had successfully been developed over a period
of two centuries.
Fundamentally, it has become clear that the present economic situation is
not simply a "post-industrial" one, in the same sense that the Industrial Revolution
was not only a "post-agricultural" economic phenomenon. The key to economic
progress has always been the better allocation of resources, and the majority of
resources available today are in the form of service activities. In order to measure
and exploit such resources, one needs a theoretical frame of reference based on the
notions of risk and uncertainty, rather than on the deterministic values based on a
traditional economic system, assumed to be in equilibrium. Services mean
performances, in real periods of time, which means that the identification of values
must be based on probabilities: the assessment of the probability and cost of a
distribution of events in the future. The Limits to Certainty with a Preface by Ilya
Prigogine and a Foreword by Alexander King, is thus about the economic
foundations of the "service economy".