Cours Dauphine M2 - Université Paris

July 2014
Université Paris-Dauphine – Master 111 « Économie internationale et
développement »
Séminaire de recherche 2014-15 sur
Réformes structurelles, croissance et convergence
Lundis 17:15-20:15
Professeur
Joaquim Oliveira Martins, Chef de Division, Politiques de Développement Régional, OCDE, et
Professeur-Associé, PSL Université Paris-Dauphine.
Objectives et contenu
Ce cours a pour objectif de donner une interprétation de la convergence globale des économies
nationales en termes de modèles de croissance et de stratégies de reforme qui doivent s´adapter aux
différentes étapes de développement. Il utilisera la littérature économique, à la fois théorique et
empirique pour appliquer le raisonnement économique à des situations concrètes de pays de l'OCDE
et marchés émergents. Une attention particulière sera donnée aux politiques permettant de passer
d´une étape de développement à l´autre, ainsi qu´aux interactions entre ces politiques. Cette dernière
permet de définir la complémentarité des reformes comme une condition pour une convergence
soutenue dans le temps. Les effets de crise de 2008 sur l’équation entre réformes structurelles et
croissance seront aussi abordés. A partir d'étude de cas concrets, ce cours donnera une vision sur la
pratique et les contraintes de la politique économique. Le cours devrait permettre aux étudiants
d'avoir une vision plus claire sur les motivations de la recherche économique appliquée, la pratique de
la politique économique et de l'interaction entre gouvernements et organismes internationaux.
Méthodes d’enseignement et évaluation
Ce séminaire de recherche se déroulera autour de 9 sessions de 3h chacune. Chaque cours est organisée
autour de deux parties. La première partie comprendra une présentation de matériaux de cours. Dans
la seconde partie, les étudiants présenteront des articles de recherche publiés dans la littérature
économique sur le lien entre réformes structurelles, croissance et convergence. L’évaluation se fera sur
les exposés oraux et participation au séminaire (40%), ainsi que la rédaction d’une synthèse sur une
question de recherche (60%).
Langues : les matériaux de cours seront en anglais, mais les séances pourront se faire en français ou
en anglais (idem pour les exposés et les mémoires).
1
Schedule of the course:
Session #1
Economic growth, convergence and structural reforms: an overview
Session #2
1st Part: Product market policies
2nd Part: Presentations on economic literature about structural reforms and growth
Session #3
1st Part: Labour market policies
2nd Part: Presentations on economic literature about structural reforms and growth
Session #4
1st Part: Investment in Higher education
2nd Part: Presentations on economic literature about structural reforms and growth
Session #5
1st Part: Public expenditures on Health care
2nd Part: Presentations on economic literature about structural reforms and growth
Session #6
1st Part: Regional and Urban policies
2nd Part: Presentations on economic literature about structural reforms and growth
Session #7
1st Part: Policy Complementarities and Growth
2nd Part: Presentations on economic literature about structural reforms and growth
Session #8
Presentation of students’ research topics
Session #9
Presentation of students’ research topics
List of Selected Readings
Aghion, P. and P. Howitt (2006), “Appropriate Growth Policy”, Schumpeter Lecture, Journal of the
European Economic Association, Volume 4, Issue 2-3, pages 269–314.
Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, OECD Development Centre, 2001.
Bazzi, S. and M. A. Clemens (2013), “Blunt Instruments: Avoiding Common Pitfalls in Identifying the
Causes of Economic Growth”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 5(2): 152–186.
2
Bouis, R. et al. (2012), “The Short-Term Effects of Structural Reforms: An Empirical Analysis”, OECD
Economics Department Working Papers, No. 949.
Bouis, Romain, Romain Duval and Fabrice Murtin (2011), “The Policy and Institutional Drivers of
Economic Growth: New Evidence from Growth Regressions”, OECD Economics Department
Working Papers no. 843.
Causa O. et Cohen, D. (2005), “Productivité industrielle et compétitivité », OECD Global convergence
website.
Dixit, A. (2009), “Evaluating Recipes for Development Success”, The World Bank Research Observer, vol.
22, no. 2.
Dupont, J., Dominique Guellec and Joaquim Oliveira Martins (2011), "OECD Productivity Growth in
the 2000s: A Descriptive Analysis of the Impact of Sectoral Effects and Innovation”, OECD Journal:
Economic Studies, Vol. 2011.
Enrico Spolaore and Romain Wacziarg (2013), “How Deep Are the Roots of Economic Development?”,
Journal of Economic Literature, 51(2), 325–369.
Fernández-Arias, E. and P. Montiel (1997),”Reform and Growth in Latin America: All Pain, No
Gain?”, Inter-American Development Bank, Working Paper #351.
Fukao, Kyoji and Roland Benabou, History vs Expectations: A Comment, QJE, May 1993.
Gordon, R. (2012), “Is the US Economic Growth over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six
Headwinds”, NBER Working Paper no. 18315.
Gylfason, T. (2003), Principles of Economic Growth, Oxford University Press.
Hausmann, R. and D. Rodrik (2003), "Economic Development as Self-Discovery", Journal of
Development Economics, vol. 72(2), pages 603-633.
Hausmann, R., D. Rodrik and A. Velasco (2008), "Growth Diagnostics", in J. Stiglitz and N. Serra, eds.,
The Washington Consensus Reconsidered: Towards a New Global Governance, Oxford
University Press, New York.
Jones, C. (2004), Economic Growth, W. W. Norton & Co.
Kehoe, Timothy J. and Kim J. Ruhl (2010), “Why Have Economic Reforms in Mexico Not Generated
Growth?”, Journal of Economic Literature, 48:4, pp. 1005–1027
Krugman, Paul, "History vs Expectations", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1991.
Kubiszewski, I., R. Costanza, C. Franco, P. Lawn, J. Talberth, T. Jackson and C. Aylmer (2013),
“Beyond GDP: Measuring and achieving global genuine progress”, Ecological Economics 93, 57–68.
Kuczynski, P-P. and J. Williamson (eds.), ”After the Washington Consensus: Restarting Growth and
Reform in Latin America”, Institute for International Economics, Washington, 2003.
Lin, J. Y. (2011), “New Structural Economics: A Framework for Rethinking Development”, The World
Bank Research Observer, vol. 26, no. 2.
Lin, J. Y. (2011), “New Structural Economics: A Framework for Rethinking Development”, The World
Bank Research Observer, vol. 26, no. 2.
MacLeod, W. B. (2013), “On Economics: A Review of Why Nations Fail by D. Acemoglu and J.
Robinson and Pillars of Prosperity by T. Besley and T. Persson”, Journal of Economic Literature, 51:1,
116–143
OECD (2012), “Can structural reforms kick-start the recovery? Lessons from 30 years of OECD
reform”, in Economic Policy Reforms 2012: Going for Growth, OECD Publishing.
OECD, Going for Growth, OECD Publishing, Paris.
Rodrik, D. (2001), “The Future of Economic Convergence”, mimeo, Harvard University.
Rodrik, D. (2005), “Growth Strategies,” in P. Aghion and S. Durlauf, eds., Handbook of Economic
Growth, 1A, North-Holland.
Rodrik, D. and S. Mukand (2005), “In Search of the Holy Grail: Policy Convergence, Experimentation,
and Economic Performance,” American Economic Review, March.
Rodrik, D., "Rethinking Economic Growth in Developing Countries", The Luca d'Agliano Lecture for
2004 (downloadable from http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~drodrik/papers.html)
3
Sachs, Jeffrey and Andrew Warner, "Economic Convergence and Economic Policies", NBER Working
Paper #5039 September 1995.
Sachs, Jeffrey and Andrew Warner, Economic Reforms and the Process of Global Integration, Brookings
Papers on Economic Activity, 1995b.
Williamson, J. (2004), “The Years of Emerging Market Crises”, Journal of Economic Literature vol.
XLII pp. 822–837.
Xu, C. (2011), “The Fundamental Institutions of China’s Reforms and Development”, Journal of
Economic Literature, 49:4, 1076–1151.
Xu, G. (2011), “The Role of Law in Economic Growth: A Literature Review”, Journal of Economic
Surveys 25(5), pp. 833–871.
Product market policies
Alesina, Ardagna, Nicoletti and Schiantarelli (2003),"Regulation and Investment", OECD Economics
Department Working Paper no. 352
Conway et al. (2006), « Regulation, Competition and Productivity Convergence », OECD Economics
Department Working Paper no. 509.
Conway, Janod and Nicoletti (2005) " Product market regulation in OECD countries: 1998 to 2003",
OECD Economics Department Working Paper no. 419
Économie & Statistique, Les entreprises sur les marchés mondiaux, numéro spécial no. 363-365, 2003.
Nicoletti & Scarpetta(2003),"Regulation and Economic Performance", Economic Policy.
Nicoletti, Golub, Hajkova, Mirza and Yoo (2003), "Policies and international integration: Influences on
trade and foreign direct investment", OECD Economics Department Working Paper no. 359
OECD (2004), Trade and Competitiveness in Argentina, Brazil and Chile: Not as Easy as A-B-C, Paris.
OECD Employment Outlook 2006, OECD, Paris.
Oliveira Martins (1994), Trade, Market Structure & Wages, OECD Economic Studies.
Labour market policies
Blanchard, O. and F. Giavazzi (2002), "Macroeconomic Effects of Regulation and Deregulation in
Goods and Labor Markets“, MIT Dept. of Economics Working Paper No. 01-02.
Bassanini and Duval (2006), "Employment Patterns in OECD in OECD countries", OECD Eco WP no.
486.
OECD (2006), Employment Outlook, Paris.
Financial Market policies
Blair, Peter Henry and Peter Lombard Lorentzen (2005), "Domestic Capital Market Reform And
Access To Global Finance: Making Markets Work", NBER Working Paper 10064.
Martin, Philippe and Hélène Rey (2003), "Financial Globalization and Emerging Markets: With Or
Without Crash?", NBER Working Paper 9288
OECD, Financial Market Trends: Special Issue on Focus on Long-Term Investment and Growth, Vol. 2011/11,
OECD.
Ramcharan, Rodney (2006), "Does Economic Diversification Lead To Financial Development?
Evidence From Topography", IMF Working Paper.
Social policies
Aghion, Philippe, Peter Howitt, Fabrice Murtin (2010), “The Relationship Between Health and
Growth: When Lucas Meets Nelson-Phelps”, NBER Working Paper no; 15813.
Dormont B., J. Oliveira Martins; F. Pelgrin and M. Shrucke (2007), "Health Expenditures, Longevity
and Growth", in Ageing, Health and Productivity (eds.) Garibaldi, Oliveira Martins and van Ours,
Oxford University Press.
Oliveira Martins, J. et al. (2007), "The Policy Determinants of Investment in Tertiary Education", OECD
Economics Department Working Paper 576, OECD Publishing, doi:10.1787/085530578031.
4
Policy blocks, reform strategy and complementarity
A debate about the pace of reforms: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/fre/2004/09/index.htm
"Éviter le péché d’orgueil et autres leçons à l’intention des réformateurs" par John McMillan.
"Éviter le péché d’orgueil, mais reconnaître les succès: Les leçons de la transition
postcommuniste" par Oleh Havrylyshyn
Amable, B. (2003), The Diversity of Modern Capitalism, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Amir, R. (2003), “Supermodularity and complementarity in economics: An elementary survey”,
CORE.
Bergoeing, R., N. Loayzaw and A. Repetto (2004), "Slow Recoveries", NBER Working Papers 10584.
Braga de Macedo, Jorge and Joaquim Oliveira Martins, “Growth, Reform indicators and Policy
complementarities”, Economics of Transition, 16(2), 141–164, 2008.
Braga de Macedo J, J Oliveira Martins and B Rocha (2103), “Are complementary reforms a "luxury" for
developing countries?”, Journal of Comparative Economics.
Falcetti,E., M. Raiser and P. Sanfey, "Defying the odds: initial conditions, reforms and growth in the
first decade of transition", EBRD Working paper no. 55
Foster, E. and H. Sonnenschein (1970), “Price Distortion and Economic Welfare”, Econometrica, 38, 281297.
Milgrom, P. and J. Roberts (1995), “Complementarities and Fit Strategy, Structure, and Organisation
Change in Manufacturing”, Journal of Accounting and Economics, 19, 179-208
Milgrom, P. and J. Roberts (1995), “Complementarities and Fit Strategy, Structure, and Organisation
Change in Manufacturing”, Journal of Accounting and Economics, 19, 179-208
Topkis, D.M. (1998), Supermodularity and Complementarity, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Williamson, O., « The New Institutional Economics: Tacking stock, Looking ahead, Journal of Economic
Literature, vol. XXXVIII, pp. 595-613.
Political Economy of Reforms & Resource curse
Gylfason, Thorvald, ‘The International Economics of Natural Resources and Growth’, CES IFO
Working Paper No. 1994, May 2007.
Hausmann, Ricardo and Roberto Rigobon, ‘An Alternative Interpretation of the “Resource Curse”:
Theory and Policy Implications’, NBER Working Paper No. 9424, December 2002.
Robinson, James A., Ragnar Torvik and Thierry Verdier, ‘Political Foundations of the Resource Curse’,
CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3422, June 2002.
Rodrik, R. ‘Understanding Economic Policy Reform’, Journal of Economic Literature 34:1, March 1996.
Tompson, William, ‘The Political Implications of Russia’s Resource-Based Economy’, Post-Soviet
Affairs 21:4 (October–December, 2005).
van der Ploeg, Frederick, ‘Challenges and Opportunities for Resource Rich Economies’, CEPR
Discussion Paper No. 5688, May 2006.
5