Euromed Aviation Project Impact assessment

Transcription

Euromed Aviation Project
Impact assessment – 1st draft
Scenarios
2nd Workshop on Road Map and Impact Assessment
Brussels,
6th / 7th October 2009
Content
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Objectives of the Impact assessment
The tasks conducted
The scenarios in the IA
Other relevant aspects for the IA
Objectives of the Impact assessment
The objectives of the impact assessment:
– To demonstrate, when implemented, the huge
Benefits and Impacts of the Common Aviation
Area on the Air Transport Sector on one hand and
on the economical and social development of the
Region
– To secure the support and the endorsement of the
High Level Decision Makers to the Concept of the
Common Aviation Area
Four Tasks
1. Assessment of the
costs

Objective: to estimate the costs
associated with the actions defined

in Road Map on national and
regional level

Costs categories

3. Economic feasibility
assessment
4. Financing options
Objective: assessment of impacts of ECAA
on the air transport sector and on the
economic and social integration of the
region

Main benefit categories:

2. Assessment of
impacts and benefits

Institutional framework

User benefits

Operator benefits

Market structure

Safety and security benefits

Aviation safety and security

Environmental benefits

Environmental protection

Regional economic impacts

ATM

Regional integration impacts

Any other relevant items

Monetary quantification as much as
possible, otherwise qualitative assessment
Objective: to assess rthe
economic feasibility of the ECAA
sources of financing of the
costs to be incurred
Assessment for MEDA region as
a whole

To assess possible

On regional and national
level
Trade-off between costs (task 1)
and benefits (task 2)

Expression in IRR and BCR

Sensitivity analysis of critical
parameters
Key in a CBA:
• To develop scenarios:
– The Baseline scenario
– The Project Scenario(s)
• These scenarios are compared to derive
effects in monetary terms
• Two project scenarios in IA
Definition of scenarios
•
Baseline scenario
– continuation of the current situation
– 1 BASA in place: EU-Morocco
•
Project scenario 1
– BASA in place between EU and 9 remaining countries: DZ,
EG, IL, JO, LB, PS, SY, TN, TR by 1 January 2013
– Followed by a multilateral agreement between EU and the 10
MEDA countries by 1 January 2017
•
Project scenario 2
– BASA in place between EU and 9 remaining countries: DZ,
EG, IL, JO, LB, PS, SY, TN, TR by 1 January 2013
What’s in the scenarios?
Principle
Or: how do we define a
EMCAA for this IA?
A
1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th freedom, as well as the 5th freedom inside EU and MEDA
B
Stop-over right for EU/ MEDA carriers towards the EU Neighbouring countries
C
Investment right under tight oversight and control of a joint-committee
D
Free airport ground handler selection
E
The freedom to set fares and tariffs
F
Convergence to EU safety standards and SES Regulation
G
The reciprocal acceptance of certification findings as regards aeronautical products,
including airport and ATM systems and components, aeronautical products
maintenance and aviation professional training
H
Free provision of air transport services between the parties and to/from third
countries outside EU/MEDA (fifth freedom)
I
The free access to domestic routes under national non-discriminatory public service
obligations
J
The free provision of aerial work services
K
The one-stop shop for security checks
L
Progressive alignment of environmental protection requirement with those of the
European Union
M
Contribution to existing FAB initiatives
BASA
Allocation of principles to scenarios
Multilateral
A
1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th freedom, as wel as the 5th freedom between EU and MEDA
B
Stop-over right for EU/ MEDA carriers towards the EU Neighbouring countries
C
Investment right under tight oversight and control of a joint-committee
D
Free airport ground handler selection
E
The freedom to set fares and tariffs
F
Convergence to EU safety standards and SES Regulation
G
The reciprocal acceptance of certification findings as regards aeronautical
products, including airport and ATM systems and components, aeronautical
products maintenance and aviation professional training
H
Free provision of air transport services between the parties and to/from third
countries outside EU/MEDA (fifth freedom)
I
The free access to domestic routes under national non-discriminatory public
service obligations
J
The free provision of aerial work services
K
The one-stop shop for security checks
L
Progressive alignment of environmental protection requirement with those of
the European Union
M
Contribution to existing FAB initiatives
Timing of the scenarios – Scenario 1
G10 – L10 Full benefits
G10 – L10 Start benefits
A9 –E9 Start benefits
F10 Full benefits
A9 –E9 Full benefits
F10 Start benefits
2010 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
All BASA-9 signed
Convergence (F9)
reached
Start incur costs as
per Road Map
Multilateral signed and
in force for MEDA-10
2019
2020
2021
2022 2035
Remaining notions for the CBA
• Geographical perspective: EU+MEDA
• Socio-economic perspective:
– Aviation stakeholders
– Government
– Society
• Only net welfare gains included
• Time period 2010-2034