Mining Day
Transcription
Mining Day
www.pwc.com Mining Day Mine 2012 The g growing g disconnect Ronaldo Valiño A crescente desconexão A indústria de mineração no mundo Mine 2012 Mi The growing disconnect A look at 2011’s Top 40… SAT Mineração PwC Julho/12 1 Section 1 – A look at 2011’s Top 40… Closing the year at $1.2 $1 2 trillion in market capitalisation, capitalisation the Top 40 lost $400 billion in value from year-end 2010 Change in 31 December market capitalisation ($ 1,7 trillion) 16 1,6 1,5 1,4 • Market capitalisation for the Top 40 dropped 25% in 2011 1,3 1,2 1,1 Source: Capital IQ SAT Mineração PwC • Only six of the Top 40 increased in 4 value: • • • • • • Randgold (up 25%) Industrias Penoles (up p 20%) Yamana Gold (up 16%) China Shenhua (up 7%) Ivanhoe Mines (up 7%) Goldcorp (up 6%) Julho/12 4 Section 1 – A look at 2011’s Top 40… The Top 4 lost a total of almost $225 billion in market capitalisation in both 2011 and 2012 (August) • The Top 4 companies constitute 38% of the Top 40 by market capitalisation at the end of 2011 ((down from 44%) Top 4 market capitalisation - 30 August/2012 ($ billion) 250 200 150 100 • China Shenhua up 29% – regaining some of its 2010 losses and continuing to move in the opposite direction to the other three SAT Mineração PwC 50 BHP Billiton 2007 Vale 2008 2009 Rio Tinto 2010 2011 China Shenhua 2012 Source: Capital IQ Julho/12 5 Section 1 – A look at 2011’s Top 40… Emerging markets continue to have a larger presence in the Top 40 • Composition of Top 40 continuing to shift to emerging markets Mine - Composition of the Top 40 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% • 19 of the Top 40 are either from or primarily concentrated on emerging markets 50% 40% 30% % 20% 10% 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 Traditional Markets 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Emerging Markets Source: PwC Analysis SAT Mineração PwC Julho/12 6 Section 1 – A look at 2011’s Top 40… Among the Top 5 Diversified miners there is much more iron ore and comparatively less diversity Top 5 Diversifieds - 2007 and 2011 Segment Revenue ($ billion) 250 5% Top 5 Diversifieds - 2007 and 2011 Segment EBIT($ billion) Nickel 150 100 12% 15% 10% 17% 15% 5 16% Aluminium 25% 42% Oth Others Coal - 40 30 20 10 22% 7% 11% 6% Aluminium Other metals Coal 66% Copper 30% Iron Ore 24% 2007 Source: PwC Analysis Copper 15% 6 60 50 Iron Ore 20% 80 70 13% 50 Nickel 2% % 1% 6% 10% 90 10% 200 100 2007 2011 2011 Source: PwC Analysis Due to Glencore Glencore’s s significant marketing activity, they have been excluded from this particular analysis, although they are a large diversified company. SAT Mineração PwC Julho/12 7 ...and the growing disconnect… SAT Mineração PwC Julho/12 7 Section 2 – ...and the growing disconnect… The mining industry diverged from the broader markets… markets Global indices (January 2011 = 1) 1,2 11 March – Fukushima nuclear disaster 1,1 5 August - S&P downgrades US credit rating for the first time in the history, from AAA to AA+ Dow Jones Industrial A Average 1,0 FTSE 100 09 0,9 0,8 0,7 26 September - US president, Barack Obama, says the debt crisis in Europe is "scaring the world" and that leaders in the Eurozone are not dealing with issues quickly enough HSBC Global Mining g Index Ongoing –Concerns of a slowdown in China’s economic growth 0,6 jan fev mar abr mai jun jul ago set out nov dez jan fev mar abr 2011 Source: Bloomberg SAT Mineração PwC • Mining industry stocks started strong in 2011, • But, as the year progressed, significantly underperformed the broader markets • HSBC Mining Index fell by 29% over the year 2012 • The Top 40 did marginally g y better, falling by 25% Julho/12 8 Section 2 – ...and the growing disconnect… …from from historical earnings… earnings • In 2011 the Top 40 posted record profits of over $130 billion, an increase of 21% from 2010 Top 40 price-to-earning ratios 30 29 25 • Strong earnings, but a 25% drop in market capitalisation, drove Top 40’s PE ratio for 2011 down to 9 • Lower than the dismal PE ratio seen in 2008 during the global financial crisis 20 19 14 15 10 10 9 5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Capital IQ IQ, PwC Analysis SAT Mineração PwC Julho/12 9 Section 2 – ...and the growing disconnect… …and and from the prices of its own commodities • In December 2012 gold was up 260% on January 2007 prices Monthly average coal, copper, gold, iron ore commodity prices, HSBC Global Mining Index (2007 = 1) 3,5 3,0 Gold 2,5 Coal (Australian thermal) 2,0 Iron ore ((CFR 63.5%) 1,5 1,0 Copper 0,5 0,0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 • Coal, iron ore, and copper are all also up • But, the HSBC Global Mining g Index was up p only 16% over the same period Source: Bloomberg Bloomberg, The World Bank SAT Mineração PwC Julho/12 10 Section 2 – ...and the growing disconnect… Despite record commodity prices prices, the industry has faced challenges in bringing on new supply Annual average AME gold prices, total global gold production (2 005 = 1) 4.0 350% increase Annual average AME copper prices, total global copper production (2 005 = 1) 2.5 240% increase 20 2.0 3.0 1 .5 2.0 11% increase 1 .0 10% increase 1 .0 0.5 - 2005 2006 6 2007 Gold price 2008 8 2009 201 0 2005 201 1 2006 2007 Copper price Global gold production 2008 2009 201 0 201 1 Global copper production Source: The World Bank, International Copper Study Group Source: The World Bank, World Gold Council Annual average CFR China iron ore prices, total global iron ore production g p ((2 005 5 = 1)) Annual average Australian thermal coal prices, global thermal coal production p ((2 005 5 = 1)) total g 245% increase 3.0 2.5 5.0 429% increase 4.0 2.0 3.0 1 .5 20% increase 1 .0 30% increase 2.0 1 .0 0 0.5 - 2005 2006 2007 Thermal coal price 2008 2009 201 0 Global thermal coal production Source: The World Bank, BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011 SAT Mineração PwC 201 1 2005 2006 2007 Iron ore price 2008 2009 201 0 201 1 Global iron ore production Source: The World Bank, AME Outlook Julho/12 12 ...despite strong 2011 results... SAT Mineração PwC Julho/12 13 Section 3 – ...despite strong 2011 results... Net profit up in 2011 2011, but the Top 40 40’s s net profit margin down as expenses increased faster than revenue Net profit and net profit margin ($ billion) (Excluding 2011 Glencore marketing and nonmining) i140 i ) (Excluding 2011 Glencore marketing and nonmining) i i ) 30% 70% 120 25% 100 00 60% 50% 20% 40% 80 15% 60 10% 40 % $ billion Revenue and Operating expenses Year-over-year increase/decrease 30% 20% % 10% 5% 20 2002 0% 2004 2006 Net profit ($) Source: PwC Analysis SAT Mineração PwC 2008 2010 0% ((10%) %) 2002 Net profit margin (%) 2004 Revenue 2006 2008 2010 Operarting expenses Source: PwC Analysis Julho/12 14 Section 3 – ...despite strong 2011 results... Iron ore lead the way, way representing the bulk of 2011 2011’s s EBIT gains Revenue by commodity ($ billion) EBIT by commodity ($ billion) 120 70 100 60 50 80 40 60 30 40 20 20 10 - - 2011 Source: PwC Analysis SAT Mineração PwC 2011 Source: PwC Analysis Julho/12 15 Section 3 – ...despite strong 2011 results... Production was up almost across the board, board but given record prices, many would have wanted to produce more… Top 40 production (million) Change from prior year (%) Gold (oz) 40 9 Iron ore (tonnes) 755 6 Copper (tonnes) 11 16 1,285 2 Met. Coal ( (tonnes) ) 124 (5) Zinc (tonnes) 3 (10) Commodity (measure) Therm. Coal (tonnes) Source: PwC Analysis SAT Mineração PwC • Except for metallurgical coal and zinc production was up across the h b board d • Copper production up 16% – in 2010 copper production was impacted by a number of labour strikes in Chile and Peru, so 2011 benefited from quieter year production up p9 9%,, but • Gold p given 2011’s record prices, producers would have wanted to produce more Julho/12 18 Section 3 – ...despite strong 2011 results... Using year-end 2011 spot prices and reserves, reserves the Top 40 40’s s reserves are worth over $18 trillion Gold Iron ore Copper (mill. oz) Number of cos. Therm. coal Met. coal Zinc (million tonnes) 24 9 24 12 10 9 2011 reserves 765 29,262 323 66,746 7,326 45 Change 8% 8% 4% 9% -2% -1% 2011 Rem. life (years) 19 39 29 52 59 14 • Out of the ten commodities analysed, reserves decreased for five out of ten,, but decreases were minor and increases were strong • Huge value retained in the ground for the future Source: PwC Analysis SAT Mineração PwC Julho/12 19 ...but is the industry giving shareholder's shareholder s what they want? SAT Mineração PwC Julho/12 20 Section 4 – ...but is the industry giving shareholder's what they want? Total cash returns to shareholders increased to $59 billion (up 156%) but capital development exceeded 50% of cash use Uses of available cash ($ billion) Uses of available cash (%) 2011 2011 2010 2010 2009 2009 2008 2007 2008 2006 2007 2005 2006 2004 2005 2003 100 - (100) (200) Net increase in cash Capital development Source: PwC Analysis SAT Mineração PwC (300) 2004 2003 0% 20% 40% Debt repayments Capital development Distributions to shareholders Distributions to shareholders 60% 80% 100% Debt repayments Source: PwC Analysis Julho/12 22 Section 4 – ...but is the industry giving shareholder's what they want? Capital expenditure up to $98 billion billion, with big increases in coal, copper and iron ore Capital expenditures by commodity ($ billion) Capital expenditures by location ($ billion) 35 25 30 20 25 15 5 20 10 15 5 10 5 - - 201 1 2011 2010 Source: PwC Analysis SAT Mineração PwC Source: PwC Analysis Julho/12 23 Outlook SAT Mineração PwC Julho/12 24 Section 5 – Outlook Outlook • Continued shareholder pressure for capital discipline • Future will be about bringing on supply through the right projects • Demand will be there – % increases may not be as high as before, but will off a larger base • Continued structural change to historically high commodity prices, underwritten by higher production costs and lower grades. However, thi d this does nott guarantee t iincreasing i gross margins i • The market doesn’t seem to be buying the industry’s long-term growth story story, sending share prices lower - 2011 has shown the growing disconnect SAT Mineração PwC Julho/12 25 Publicações PwC T Temas E Empresariais i i Mi 2012 Mine Mining – a virtuous cycle thatneeds to be taken advantage of The growing disconnect http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/energ y-utilities-mining/index.jhtml ili i i i /i d jh l pwc.com.br/pt/publicacoes/revistatemas-empresariais Mining g in the Americas On the road again? g Brazil – Country Profile Global Mining 2011 Deals Review & 2012 Outlook pwc.com/ca/en/mining pwc.com.br/pt/setores-deb / / d atividade/mineracao SAT Mineração PwC pwc com/ca/en/mining pwc.com/ca/en/mining pwc.com.br/pt/setores-deatividade/mineracao Julho/12 23 Ob i d ! Obrigado!