Investment Policy - map fund management, luxembourg

Transcription

1875 MAP
MARKET ALLOCATION PROCESS
Investment Strategy
November 2016
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Investment Policy
Economic Environment
3
Financial Environment
7
Investment Strategy
1875 FINANCE ·40, rue du 31 Décembre · Case Postale 6208 · CH-1211 Genève 6 · Tél. +41 (0)22 595 18 75 · Fax + 41 (0)22 595 18 00 · www.1875.ch
1875 FINANCE (Luxembourg) · Bd. Prince Henri 41 · L-1724 Luxembourg · Tél. +(352) 27 99 1875 · Fax + (352) 27 99 1875-75 · www.1875.lu
11
2
INVESTMENT POLICY
Economic Environment:
After being confronted with intensifying deflationary pressures
during the first quarter, the global economy will benefit over the
next 3 to 6 months from a recovery in its nominal growth.
Because of the surplus of available production resources, an
abrupt end to the current business cycle seems unlikely
despite its already lengthy life.
Although rendered uncertain by the major political events which the
US is facing now and which Europe will face at a later date, the
orientation of economic policies will undergo change. While
central banks will prove gradually less accommodating,
governments will increase infrastructure spending and will provide
possibilities of both a more marked expansion of investment and
of broader gains in productivity. They will alleviate the tax
burden for the poorest households and for small and medium
enterprises to reduce the social inequalities which are responsible
for the rise of populism in developed countries.
3
INVESTMENT POLICY
•
USA: according to our leading indicators, US expansion will
remain moderate over the next two quarters. Its future is
however plagued by the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the
US elections and the potential consequences on the economic
policies to be implemented. Where inflation is concerned, pressures
will remain moderate in the short term despite the gradual rise in
wages, which could accelerate as a result of the introduction of a
minimum wage.
•
Eurozone: our model confirms the changes observed during the
previous month in the Eurozone. Economic activity will
accelerate and deflationary pressures will ease significantly in
the medium term. The recovery will extend to all the components
of demand, with exports benefiting from the undervaluation of the
Euro and investment from improved earnings prospects.
Consumption will be supported by the improvement in the labour
market.
Source: 1875 MAP
4
INVESTMENT POLICY
•
Great Britain: statistics on real activity in Great Britain
continued to be higher than expected. Having benefited from
the depreciation of the Pound sterling and from the monetary
easing operated by the Bank of England, the UK climate will cool
in conjunction with the decrease in productive and international
investments. Under the effect of the sharp drop in the exchange
rate, price indices have recovered. Their progress will intensify in
light of the rise of our inflation forecast indicators for the UK.
•
Switzerland: leading indicators published in October
advocate for stronger growth in Switzerland over the
coming quarters. Despite the strengthening of the franc against
the Euro, deflationary pressures will continue to ease as a
result of the improvements in global economic outlook.
Source: 1875 MAP
5
INVESTMENT POLICY
•
Japan: thanks to the greater stability of the yen and to more robust
global growth, Japan's economic situation has stopped
deteriorating. During the coming months, it will continue to expand at a
moderate pace. After ebbing substantially, Japanese inflation will
continue to weaken without necessarily leading to a further increase in
deflationary pressures.
•
Emerging countries: the latest published economic statistics have
confirmed a gradual increase in production in emerging countries.
While limited by weak gains in productivity and by the lesser
improvement in terms of trade, emerging growth will continue to recover
during the next quarter.
•
China: after benefiting from increased government investment and from
the easing operated by the People's Bank of China, the expansion of
the Chinese economy will be more contained, in the absence of any
new fiscal and monetary stimuli. However, it will weaken only slightly
due to more robust consumer spending and exports, the former being
favored by structural reforms and the latter by the weakness of the
Renminbi.
Source: 1875 MAP
6
INVESTMENT POLICY
Financial Environment:
•
In the last month, the financial environment has changed only
little and remains broadly accommodating. Its expansion has
however been constrained over the short term by increased
expectations of rising interest rates, by the strengthening of the US
dollar and by rising risk premiums as a result of the political
uncertainties in the United States.
•
Under the effect of increasingly divergent monetary policies,
volatility will increase, particularly on foreign exchange and on
interest rates.
•
Central banks will normalize their monetary policy when
required by economic conditions, since they are well aware that
excessively low interest rates may distort capital allocation in the
medium term. They will however be careful not to make
adjustments which are too brutal and unpredictable. They will
also continue to intervene regularly on the capital markets during
periods of financial instability or in case of a liquidity crisis.
Source : 1875 MAP
7
INVESTMENT POLICY
•
At its October meeting, the Federal Reserve did not alter the
direction of its monetary policy as it is still awaiting
confirmation of the improvement in the economy. However, it
clearly reiterated that the odds of a 25 basis point increase in
the rates on federal funds to between 0.50% and 0.75% had
shortened, confirming our scenario of a hike in December.
•
The very gradual increase in policy rates in the United States stems
both from the delays which the central bank has encountered in the
normalization process of its policy, and from the increased influence
of the international environment on the US economy.
•
Our models indicate that US financing conditions are still
moderately expansive, with higher government interest rates
being partly offset by a reduction in the risk premiums required
for the business and individual financing.
Source: 1875 MAP
8
INVESTMENT POLICY
•
The ECB continues to deploy its asset purchase programme,
expanding its purchases to corporate bonds, and to pursue
its refinancing operations. Although inflation still lies well below
target, the European authorities will not alter the direction of their
policy during the second half, since they are aware that their action
is now facing its own limitations. Notwithstanding the absence of
new interventions of the European Central Bank, the monetary
environment in the Eurozone remains expansive.
•
After deciding to implement a QQE (Quantitative and Qualitative
Easing), i.e. to set a target interest rate for a certain number of
deadlines, the Bank of Japan should not change the
orientation of its monetary policy during Q4. In the absence of
a more significant decline of the yen, Japanese financial conditions
will accordingly continue to be restrictive.
Source: 1875 MAP
9
INVESTMENT POLICY
•
While remaining historically restrictive in light of the weak expansion of long-term monetary aggregates
and of the moderation of credit demand, financial conditions within the emerging zone continued to
ease through the decrease in the cost of capital.
•
In view of the strong growth in credit demand, the People's Bank of China will not change its interest
rate policy in the short term, preferring a controlled depreciation of the Renminbi instead.
Source : 1875 MAP
10
INVESTMENT POLICY
Investment Strategy: Asset Classes
•
Retain minimal exposure on short-term investments.
•
Complementarily reduce the bond weighting to reach
significant underexposure.
•
Increase equity exposure as of now to moderately
overweight, with a preference for European securities.
•
Increase investments in international indirect real
estate in a trend towards neutrality, following the
improvement of valuation levels and of financing conditions.
•
Stay overweight on gold in consideration of the
excessively low level of real interest rates and of the
attractive valuation.
Source: 1875 MAP Wealth Management CHF
11
INVESTMENT POLICY
Investment Strategy: Bonds
•
Increase bond underweighting, implementing variable
global durations according to the reference currencies.
•
Remain overweight on AUD and to a lesser extent CAD bonds.
Reduce exposure on EUR investments to reach a more
significant underexposure. Continue to underweight USD,
CHF, GBP and JPY commitments. Decrease the
underweighting of NOK investments to achieve a
moderate overexposure.
•
In terms of debtor categories, continue to overweight
corporate bonds, more moderately underweighting US private
bonds and overweighting their European counterparts.
Source: 1875 MAP
12
INVESTMENT POLICY
Investment Strategy: Equities
•
After being kept underweight for over 12 months, equities are
now gradually overweighted for the following reasons:
a) Selective appreciation in multiples, fostered by the
persistence of globally expansive financial conditions
b) Improved profit outlooks brought about by the
recovery in global nominal growth and by the targeted
increase in margins due to the recovery in productivity
c) Valuations are now appealing overall due to the
decline in stock markets
Geographical allocation: the correlation between the major
exchanges will continue to gradually decrease in conjunction with
the lowering of risk premiums.
Source: 1875 MAP
13
INVESTMENT POLICY
Investment Strategy: Equities
•
Those markets benefiting from an expansive monetary
environment and from the most significant improvement in
corporate profits should be given priority:
 This will result in increased exposure to European
equities to reach a more substantial overweighting. The
significant excess weighting of British securities is somewhat
reduced and the Swiss and Australian commitments can be
increased to reach a moderate overexposure.
 While still underweight, the US and Canadian markets are
increased.
Source: 1875 MAP
 For valuation reasons, emerging markets commitments
are the exception and are now underexposed, having
been reduced in consideration of deteriorating valuation
levels and earnings prospects.
14
INVESTMENT POLICY
Investment Strategy: Currencies
•
EUR/USD: stay moderately overweight on the EUR due to a
still-favourable risk premium and valuation.
•
EUR/CHF: remain underweight on the CHF in light of the
deterioration of its valuation level.
•
GBP/EUR: reduce the overexposure of the GBP relative to
the EUR following the improvement in its valuation.
•
USD/JPY: reduce the underweighting of the USD against
the JPY in light of the weaker risk premiums on the greenback.
•
AUD/USD: remain underexposed to the AUD in light of the
persistence of a significant external and economic risk premium
on the Australian currency.
•
Source: 1875 MAP
USD/CAD: overweight the CAD following the lowering of its
economic risk premium and the improvement in its valuation.
15
Important Legal Information
This publication is intended for information purposes only, and should not be construed as an offer, recommendation or solicitation for sale, purchase or engagement in any other transaction.
Furthermore, by offering information, products or services via this publication, no solicitation is made to any person to use such information, products or services in jurisdictions where the provision of
such information, products or services is prohibited by law or regulation. All material is provided without express or implied warranties or representations of any kind and no liability for any direct or
indirect damages arising out of the use of this information is accepted.
All information contained in this publication has been prepared by 1875 FINANCE SA on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable.
It is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as an individualised recommendation or personalised investment, tax or legal advice. The information is subject to change
without notice. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the materials are accurate and that the opinions stated are fair and reasonable. All opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as
of the date of publication and do not constitute general or specific investment advice.
Investments in the asset classes mentioned herein may not be suitable for all recipients. Past performance is no guarantee or indication for future results. The price, value of, and income from
investments in any asset class mentioned in this publication may experience upward and downward movement and investors may not get back the amount invested. International investing includes
risks related to political and economic uncertainties in foreign countries, as well as currency risk. Any investment should be made only after thoroughly reading the current prospectus and/or other
documentation/information available. Nothing contained in this document constitutes legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on this
document.
This publication is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable local laws or regulations
or would subject 1875 FINANCE SA to any registration requirement within such country or jurisdiction. Persons or entities in respect of whom such prohibitions apply must not use this publication.
This document is not intended for distribution in the U.S. or to U.S. persons.
16

Investment Policy - map fund management, luxembourg

Transcription

Documents pareils

LE GOUVERNEMENT DU GRAND-DUCHE DE

() - map fund management, luxembourg

Investment Policy - map fund management, luxembourg

Sound production and associated behaviours of benthic

SEPAREX general Brochure

GasCO OL

SENIOR ACCOUNTANT PANDOMUS

Bank Leumi (Luxembourg) S.A. has adhered to the deposit

CREDIT APPLICATION

Curriculum Vitae – Jean-Nicolas Schaus

To: all ETTU member Associations Re: European Olympic Singles