Press review 4-12-2013

Press review 4-12-2013
The Daily Star
Future, Kataeb seek constitutional neutrality
http://bit.ly/1ay7CM1
BEIRUT: The Future Movement and the Kataeb party discussed Tuesday a
proposal by Kataeb to include a policy of neutrality in the Lebanese
Constitution, as they stressed the need to distance Lebanon from the
Syrian crisis.
Kataeb has recently prepared a draft law that calls for amending the
preamble of the Constitution to include a clause about maintaining
neutrality amid regional conflicts.
“The meeting was positive, we discussed our proposal with the Future bloc
and agreed on the majority of its content,” Kataeb MP Elie Marouni told The
Daily Star.
The Zahle lawmaker said that their proposal came after “experience proved
that Lebanon is afflicted by its involvement in foreign conflicts.”
The lawmaker said the proposal was discussed with Speaker Nabih Berri’s
Development and Liberation bloc and MP Michel Aoun’s Change and
Reform bloc, as well as Hezbollah.
He said that lawmakers from Berri and Aoun’s blocs were somewhat
responsive to the proposal while Hezbollah totally disregarded it.
“It is obvious Hezbollah is in a different mindset than ours,” he said.
Hezbollah has been involved in fighting alongside President Bashar
Asaad’s regime troops against Syrian rebels in Syria despite a Lebanese
agreement – the Baabda Declaration – that established Lebanon’s
neutrality in the face of regional conflicts.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said it had documented, up until
Dec. 1, 2013, the death of 232 Hezbollah fighters battling with the regime.
Future MP Samir al-Jisr said the meeting with Kataeb was “very useful and
marked by frankness and deep discussions.”
Political theater
http://bit.ly/1jkipBe
For some politicians in Lebanon, the presidential election of May 2014 is in
full swing. Unfortunately, this means that it’s time to engage in the
traditional game of discussing the names of possible “candidates” behind
closed doors and then leaking them to the media.
Naturally, there is a small market for this kind of news, and anyone looking
in from the outside might see the phenomenon as a signal of vitality and
pluralism in Lebanon’s political system, where the head of state isn’t limited
to a single clique or family.
But for the overwhelming majority of consumers of political intrigue and
many people who have simply lost interest in what politicians say, the
attempts to generate public interest in the presidential election campaign
couldn’t mean less.
Most are fully aware that the maneuvering which takes place nearly six
months before the presidential election will have very little impact on what
actually happens in May of next year.
They know that these politicians have little to no influence on the factors
that will lead to the election of a president, which has to do more with the
situation outside Lebanon than the situation inside the country. Some
members of the public would like to see presidential candidates stand up
openly and declare their platforms, even though MPs in Parliament will do
the actual voting. Unfortunately, the current mindset among most politicians
is that anyone who openly announces a run themselvesfor the country’s top
job is actually destroying any chance of success, so the public is left with
the secretive leaking of names to the media.
Instead of wasting time on this circus, politicians could busy themselves
with generating solutions for the many problems faced by ordinary people.
Instead of devoting their time and effort to entertaining a small segment of
the public, these politicians should figure out what can be done to help
Lebanon weather the many storms that threaten it. Security conditions,
crime, electricity and water, traffic, education and health are some of the
many troubled areas that need immediate, feasible solutions.
No one expects a magic answer to what the overarching foreign policy
should be or other struggles that have paralyzed the national political order,
but there is no excuse to see another rainy season begin with no fix for the
perennial problem of water supply deficits, massive levels of waste and
polluted sources of water.
If these vital sectors and day-to-day issues were tackled, politicians and the
public would have the time to engage in speculation about the identity of
the next president. A proper election campaign only makes sense in a
system that works in the first place, and any effort spent to inspire public
interest in the spectacle of the presidential election is a dangerous
diversion from the real-world issues that are reaching crisis levels.
Now Lebanon
Nasrallah's December 3
interview on OTV
http://bit.ly/IMr4yG
Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah spoke on the latest regional and
domestic Lebanese developments in an interview with OTV on December
3, 2013:
The Iran nuclear deal has significant ramifications. The region’s peoples
are the biggest winners from this deal because regional and international
forces have been pushing for war with Iran which would have had
dangerous repercussions on the region.
The deal pushed off the [potential of] war [between Israel and US against
Iran]. Israel cannot possibly bomb nuclear facilities without a US green
light. [Its] monopoly of power is no longer there.
All US wars have failed [and] Secretary of State John Kerry was clear that
US does not want more wars. I have information that the US wanted to
discuss non-nuclear issues with Iran, but Iran insisted the talks would
remain just on the nuclear issue.
It is too early for Iran to head toward normalization with the US because
there are many outstanding issues. There is a shift in [US policy] but Iran
has maintained its stances.
Iranians wanted to reassure the Gulf countries that the deal was not agreed
upon at their expense. Iran has not cut off ties with its neighbors; the
problem is with the others.
Iran has for years sought to open the doors for the dialogue with Saudi
Arabia, but all attempts failed. [Riyadh] rejected Pakistani efforts to mediate
ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia treated Iran as its enemy. The Saudis have proxy wars with
Iran inside Iran, in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Pakistan.
Saudi Arabia’s problem with Iran is not sectarian-based. [Riyadh] considers
itself as the leader of the Arab and the Islamic worlds. The problem is
political
I met a Qatari delegation. Qatar took a good initiative concerning the
abducted pilgrims. This initiative reopened the doors between us. A link has
always been there between us and Qatar.
A military solution in Syria is crazy; therefore I call on all the countries to
help in order to reach a political solution.
Contact between Hezbollah and Turkey has never ceased. The Turks have
lost a great deal. There is tension now between it and Syria, Iran, Egypt…
and that has impacted it internally.
The Palestinian file seems to not have a [positive outlook].
Iran is the first regional country [in importance]. They discuss issues with us
and coordinate with us.
If March 14’s relation with Saudi Arabia was the same as ours with Iran;
then there would have been no problem in Lebanon because Iran does not
interfere in internal Lebanese political issues like Saudi Arabia does.
We do not [seek counsel from] Iran or take permission from them regarding
domestic Lebanese issues.
Iran took what it wanted in the nuclear deal. This deal does not negatively
affect Lebanon or Syria.
Our stance on Syria [changed] gradually. Before taking an official stance,
the Syrian opposition started threatening us. We had no direct contact with
the opposition.
Assad was ready for dialogue and reforms. On the other hand, regional
countries and parties said there was no need for dialogue because the
uprising would end quickly. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey wanted to
overthrow the regime militarily.
When regime troops had to leave towns from Qusayr where Lebanese
nationals resided, the residents came to us. They decided to fight for their
land.
The Lebanese state did not help the Lebanese living there and left the
border open. We trained them and armed them. The residents of these
towns were the first to fight, not Hezbollah fighters.
In May 2013, only a few months ago, those Lebanese had no more
capacity to defend themselves. The towns inhabited by the Lebanese
[called] on Hezbollah to intervene militarily and openly. Who invited
Hezbollah to intervene militarily and openly is the towns inhabited by
Lebanese.
The destruction of the Sayyida Zeinab Shrine [in southern Damascus]
could have led to a sectarian war in the region. We sent 40 to 50 fighters to
Sayyida Zeinab.
We had to increase the number of our fighters in Syria after a while. I am
100% certain about my stance [militarily supporting the Syrian regime].We
did not enter Syrian upon the request of Iran. That was our decision.
The Syrian army was faced with a war in most areas. Hundreds of
thousands of foreign fighters were brought to fight in Syria.
The Syrian army did not abandon Maalula. If we withdraw from Syria, then
Qusayr, Qalamoun and the Lebanese border would fall in the hands of the
armed groups. Car bombs will target all of Lebanon, not only Dahiyeh.
Three car bombs were found in [Qalamoun’s] Nabk that were rigged to be
sent to Lebanon.
“The car bombs that exploded in Lebanon came into the country from
[Qalamoun’s] Yabrud and Nabk through [the northern Beqaa’s] Arsal and
its outskirts.”
We are protecting Lebanon. If Syria falls into the hands of these armed
groups, what will Lebanon’s fate be?
If militants take control of border areas with Lebanon, we would be prone to
dozens of car bomb attacks.
We intervened militarily when the [Syrian] revolution was stolen [by the
Takfiris].
What are March 14’s guarantees? What guarantees can you give to the
Lebanese if Syria falls into the hands of the armed groups?
[Future Movement leader MP] Saad Hariri and [Future bloc MP] Okab Sakr
are financing, arming and sending fighters to Syria.
Some of the armed groups in Syria are not under the control of any
country.
Syrians are fighting in Syria, we are not fighting for them. We have no
fighters in Daraa, Sweida, Raqqa or Hasaka.
We are present in Damascus, Homs, and areas near the border. There are
no Iranian fighters in Syria or else the UN would have interfered in the
crisis.
In Qalamoun, the Syrian army is fighting. Hezbollah’s participation is
minimal.
Our presence in Syria is important.
March 14 media exaggerate the number of Hezbollah martyrs. The number
of our martyrs since the beginning of our involvement has not reached
hundreds. Considering the size of the involvement and the victories, we
have less martyrs than we expected. There are no Hezbollah prisoners in
Syria.
The English, French and others give arms to Arab countries who in turn
give them to the fighters. Countries are reconsidering their stances on
Syria. Regional countries are feeling a threat.
Saudi Arabia is still insisting on fighting till the last drop of blood. I expect
tough confrontation until January 22 [the scheduled date of Geneva Ii] to
either show the [Syrian regime] army as weak or to cancel Geneva II
I do not know if Geneva II will take place because there are parties working
on disrupting it.
Even before our intervention in Syria there were clashes in Tripoli. Tripoli is
an issue on its own.
If Hezbollah did not fight in Syria, there would have been a civil war in
Lebanon and hundreds of car bombs. We did damage control and
diminished the repercussions of the Syrian crisis on Lebanon.
The bombings targeting the Iranian embassy [in Beirut] is related to
targeting Iran, not Hezbollah’s intervention in Syria. Saudi intelligence is
managing and operating Al-Qaeda-linked organizations.
We believe the Abdallah Azzam Brigades’ claim of responsibility for the
attack, and it is my belief they are under the administration of Saudi
intelligence
Bombings in Iraq are financed and operated by Saudi intelligence.
Some of these groups [Al-Qaeda] are in contact with Saudi intelligence.
Saudi Arabia holds Iran responsible for the failure of its projects in the
region.
Any explosion that targets civilians is condemnable. We condemned the
Tripoli bombings.
There was no evidence of Sheikhs Gharib and Menqara’s involvement in
the bombings.
[Arab Democratic Party Secretary General] Ali Eid was not proven to be
responsible for the bombings. His driver was accused of being involved.
The bombings were used for political accusations. The situation in Tripoli is
very dangerous, but the state can resolve this situation.
The ISF has been financing and arming the fighters [in Tripoli] for the past
3-4 years. The March 14 alliance is responsible for what happens in Tripoli.
[We need] to create a crisis cell and enter dialogue.
We want timely elections and are ready to help in any way to make that
happen.
I want our party to adopt a [presidential] candidate clearly. We favor
convening a [national] dialogue table.
Hezbollah did not pay any penny for students to study at USJ. I do not
accept any offense against any Lebanese symbol.
At USJ, [March 14] were [targeting] the FPM, not Hezbollah.
L’Orient Le Jour
http://bit.ly/189ivsS
Le vide institutionnel, nouvelle ligne rouge en gestation
Le patriarche Raï recevant lundi soir la délégation du bloc du Futur pour
discuter de l’échéance présidentielle de 2014. Photo Émile Eid
Élie FAYAD | OLJ
Les échéances à caractère décisif sur les plans régional et local
s'amoncellent d'ores et déjà pour la première moitié de 2014, au point de
bousculer le calendrier et de susciter sérieusement la crainte d'une
installation durable du Liban dans le vide institutionnel.
La première des échéances attendues, dès le 13 janvier, sera l'ouverture
du procès des assassins de Rafic Hariri dans le cadre du Tribunal spécial
pour le Liban.
Certes, nul ne s'attend à ce que le dossier fasse un bond spectaculaire ce
jour-là en particulier. Il n'empêche que le processus qui sera ainsi
enclenché marquera le début de la dernière ligne droite dans le très long et
très difficile combat engagé au Liban dès 2005 contre l'impunité pour les
auteurs et commanditaires d'attentats politiques.
Neuf jours plus tard devra se tenir à Genève, conformément au calendrier
annoncé par le secrétaire général des Nations unies, la deuxième
conférence internationale sur la Syrie. De nombreuses inconnues
continuent de flotter autour de cette réunion et de ses participants. Mais le
consensus international qui a soudain permis d'en fixer la date à ce stade,
alors que cela paraissait chose impossible quelques semaines plus tôt,
suffit pour suggérer l'impact qu'aurait cette conférence sur le cours des
événements.
Au 1er mars, devront avoir été retirées de Syrie toutes les armes chimiques
en vue de leur destruction. Le bon déroulement de ce processus sera à
n'en pas douter un indicateur du sérieux des puissances concernées,
grandes et moyennes, dans le traitement de l'ensemble des dossiers «
chauds » de la région.
Le 25 mars, le Liban est censé entrer en période d'élection présidentielle,
le nouveau chef de l'État devant, aux termes de la Constitution, être élu
durant le mois qui suit, c'est-à-dire entre le 25 mars et le 25 avril (deux
mois au maximum et un mois au minimum avant la fin du mandat actuel, le
25 mai).
À peu près à la même période, la Syrie entre elle aussi en phase d'élection
présidentielle, de sorte qu'on devrait savoir au plus tard à cette date (si ce
n'est pas le cas à Genève, en janvier), quel serait l'avenir politique du
président Bachar el-Assad.
Enfin, en mai, coïncidant avec l'expiration du mandat présidentiel libanais,
tombe la fin de la période intérimaire de six mois prévue dans le cadre de
l'accord entre l'Iran et la communauté internationale sur le nucléaire : une
date d'une importance cruciale pour qui veut savoir l'évolution des rapports
entre l'Iran et l'Occident et les retombées de cette évolution sur les pays de
la région, y compris le Liban.
À côté de ces échéances datées, il y en a d'autres qui restent flottantes,
parce qu'elles sont justement dépendantes des premières. Parmi elles, la
formation d'un gouvernement au Liban et l'avenir des relations entre l'Iran
et le monde arabe, à commencer par les monarchies du Golfe.
Sur ce dernier point, dont on sait l'importance pour la stabilité future du
Liban et, plus généralement, l'impact sur les relations entre sunnites et
chiites, disons-le tout de suite : on n'est pas sorti de l'auberge. L'accusation
implicite portée hier par le secrétaire général du Hezbollah, Hassan
Nasrallah, contre Riyad au sujet du double attentat de Bir Hassan est
assez grave et n'augure pas de suites positives. Pas plus d'ailleurs que les
informations de presse faisant état de la soumission de toute normalisation
saoudienne avec l'Iran à la condition d'un retrait immédiat du Hezb de
Syrie.
Pour cette raison et pour d'autres, liées justement à la multiplicité, à
l'enchevêtrement et à l'importance des échéances régionales, qui sont de
nature à accaparer l'attention de la communauté internationale, et en
particulier de l'Occident, on s'inquiète de plus en plus sérieusement dans
les chancelleries des risques de voir le Liban sombrer dans le vide.
La présidentielle, certes, est en ligne de mire. À ce propos, on voit ces
jours-ci le patriarche maronite s'activer dans toutes les directions afin de
prévenir une vacance au niveau de la première magistrature. La stratégie
de Mgr Béchara Raï consisterait à mettre sur pied un front très large, qui
engloberait toutes les formations chrétiennes, pour s'opposer à
l'ajournement de l'élection présidentielle.
Mais pour les chancelleries, il y a plus urgent. Survenant avant l'échéance
définitive sur le nucléaire iranien, le scrutin présidentiel pourrait être
menacé de facto si l'on considère qu'il serait problématique d'élire un chef
d'État au Liban avant de savoir précisément où va la région.
Voilà pourquoi on estime dans certains milieux diplomatiques occidentaux
que la priorité absolue devrait être accordée à la formation du
gouvernement, quitte à ce que ce dernier assume le pouvoir de façon
intérimaire en cas de report – limité dans le temps – de la présidentielle.
Ce que redoutent ces milieux par-dessus tout, c'est un vide qui conduirait à
une remise en question de l'ordre institutionnel établi, à savoir celui de Taëf
; c'est-à-dire en quelque sorte le scénario attribué au Hezbollah depuis que
son secrétaire général a réclamé, au printemps dernier, la mise en place
d'une Constituante.
Pour le moment, aucune grande puissance ne semble, en effet, vouloir
emprunter une telle direction. Mais il faudra probablement attendre la fin de
la période des six mois et l'évolution définitive des rapports avec l'Iran pour
en être tout à fait sûr.