INVESTMENT IN AUTOPARTS IN ARGENTINA June 2011

INVESTMENT IN AUTOPARTS IN ARGENTINA June 2011

ASOCIACIÓN DE FÁBRICAS ARGENTINAS DE COMPONENTES
INVESTMENT IN AUTOPARTS IN ARGENTINA
June 2011
Viamonte 1167, 2do. piso. Buenos Aires, ARGENTINA
Tel. +54 11 4375-0516 Fax +54 11 4814-3434
E-mail: [email protected]
www.afac.org.ar
LEADING INDICATORS
Number of auto components companies
Direct Employment (P)
Share in the industrial employment %
Sales (millons U$S) (P)
Share in GDP %
Share in industrial GDP %
Exports FOB (millons U$S)
Share in industrial exports %
Notes: (P): Proyected
Source: AFAC.
2010
400
60.378
5,2%
5.920
0,5%
3,3%
2.422
10,2%
THE SLOPE OF THE PRODUCTION FROM 2008-2009 WAS THE
HIGHEST RECORDED AFTER A CRISIS
2010
716.540
Monthly and annualized production. Units
Vs 2009: +39,7%
vs 2008: +20,0%
90000
800000
Annual production (right)
80000
700000
70000
600000
60000
500000
50000
400000
40000
300000
30000
Polinomic monthly Production (left) 200000
20000
100000
10000
Monthly production (Ieft)
0
19961997 1998 1999 20002001 2001 2002 20032004 2005 20062006 2007 2008 20092010
Fuente: ABECEB.COM.
0
VEHICLE PRODUCTION IN 2010 WAS ALSO A RECORD FOR MOST OF
THE AUTOMOTIVE COMPANIES
Vehicle production by makers. Units
Production
General Motors
PSA
Ford
Fiat
Renault
Volwagen
Toyota
Mercedes Benz
Iveco
TOTAL
Share
127.818
126.968
96.454
96.059
91.222
87.073
70.032
16.461
4.453
716.540
Var %.
Var %
10 vs. 09 10 vs. 08
Maximun
17,8%
55,9% 14,2%
17,7%
48,6%
-3,7%
13,5%
32,9% 15,3%
13,4%
22,3% 234,7%
12,7%
39,3% 24,4%
12,2%
67,3% 37,9%
9,8%
12,0%
8,5%
2,3%
26,4% -49,8%
0,6% 239,7% -38,0%
39,7% 20,0%
127.818
131.791
96.454
96.059
91.222
87.073
70.032
26.108
7.179
(year)
2010
2008
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2007
2008
Share of production of vehicles by maker, segment and age
12,6%
11,7%
8,6%
3,7%
1,7%
1,5%
Ford
Fiat
Toyota
MB
Iveco
5%
VW
PSA
GM
More than 4 years
22,6%
Car segment A, B
48,7%
0%
Fuente: ABECEB.COM
Others
3,4%
Car segment D, E
11,7%
Renault
10%
17,2%
15%
Commercials
7,1%
20,4%
20%
22,5%
25%
Pick Ups
29,2%
Less than 4 ayears77,4%
2011 GROWTH PROSPECTS 17,3% VS 2010
Vehicle production. Units
2011
864.600
(+20,7%)
90.000
80.000
Contributions to the estimated growth
in 2011 by company ( %)
Volkswagen
33,0%
70.000
PSA
26,9%
60.000
Renault
23,2%
50.000
Fiat
7,2%
40.000
General Motors
3,6%
20.000
4M2011 vs
4M2010
10.000
+27,8%
30.000
Honda
3,2%
Toyota
2,4%
Mercedes Benz
1,2%
0
Iveco
0,4%
ene feb mar abr may jun
jul
ago sep oct nov dic
Ford -1,2%
2008
2009
2010
2011
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Increased production prospects are based on the expected demand pull and the major launching of new models :
This year, Fiat has announced the second shift of production, jumping from 400 cars per day to 650.
Mercedes Benz will also beguin a second shift of production from August (Sprinter, bus chassis and the new truck.)
PSA began in March the production of 408 and Renault will go into full production regime of Fluence and will add a new production shift this
year.
Volkswagen Pick-up will also come into full production in 2011 an exports will increase by 77% between 2011 and 2012.
In March Honda began production of the City model in its plant in Campana.
Source: ABECEB.COM
INSTALLED CAPACITY
Installed capacity in the automotive industry. Industry and companies. %
1.400
Installedinstalada
capacity
Capacidad
Toyota
100%
Producción
Production
1.200
GM
82%
80%
75%
69%
PSA
67%
1.000
67%
Fiat
67%
58%
800
54%
50%
VW
60%
600
Renault
58%
400
Iveco
56%
200
Ford
55%
MB
47%
0
40%
2007
2008
2009
Production recovers
from the crisis in 2009 using idle
capacity, optimizing working shifts and
increasing productivity.
2010
2011e
2012p
Last year, that
process began to
show signs of exhaustion
and some makers
announced by the end of
the year the addition of
new production shifts (Fiat,
Renault).
2013p
In 2011 it
becomes necessary
to increase the installed
capacity, especially in some
companies (Toyota, GM)
60%
80%
100%
STRONG GROWTH OF DOMESTIC AUTO SALES
The growth of domestic demand in 2010 had its main support in:
•Strong growth of economic activity (+8.9%)
•Postponed consumption trailing from the 2008-2009 crisis
•The few investment opportunities that existed last year to preserve the value of money
•A significant recovery in financial instruments involving the purchase of vehicles (sales financing peaked in
2010: 36.3%)
2010
662.576
Vs 2009: +28,7%
vs 2008: +8,5%
Registrations. Monthly and annualized. Units
2008
610.778
120000
700000
600000
100000
1998
446.710
Annualized registrations (right)
500000
80000
400000
60000
300000
40000
200000
Polinomic monthly registrations
20000
100000
Monthly registrations (left)
2002
95.283
0
1996199619971998 1999200020012001 20022003200420052006 2006200720082009
0
REGISTRATIONS
Source of growth by segment, brand and model (in % 4m2011-4m2010)
Segment
Gama
Baja C, D, E
Gama Media
Segment
B
Com.
Liv.
Lights
Comm.
MPV-C Suv
Monovol.
SUV Others
Resto
4,9%
8,4%
15,6%
19,6%
44,1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Volkswagen
17,7%
Renault
16,6%
Peugeot
13,7%
Ford
12,5% 71,1% of
10,6%
registrations
Chevrolet
Nissan
5,9%
Citroen
5,0%
Fiat
5,0%
Hyundai
2,2%
Volkswagen AMAROK
Volkswagen FOX
Ford ECOSPORT
Renault CLIO
Peugeot 207
Chevrolet AVEO
Peugeot PARTNER
Volkswagen BORA
Renault SANDERO
Renault LOGAN
Ford FOCUS II
Chevrolet CORSA
7,8%
5,9%
5,8%
5,6%
4,9%
4,5%
4,5%
56%
4,2%
Of the growth
3,6%
3,4%
2,9%
2,8%
Mercedes Benz
2,1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Toyota
1,6%
Chery
1,6%
New models:
Fiat Uno 2010
Ford Fiesta Kinetic
Renault Fluence
Peugeot 408
Chevrolet Cruze
Nissan Sentra
Iveco
1,5%
Var. 4M2011 / 4M2010
Honda
1,5%
62.887
units
Dodge
1,3%
Resto
1,2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Chevrolet Montana
Chery QQ
Renault Megane III
Audi A1
Citroën DS3
Ford Transit
20%
Source: abeceb.com and ACARA
EXPORT OF VEHICLES MONTHLY AND ANNUALIZED. UNITS
Record sales in Brazil and Argentina increased participation in vehicles in
that market vehicles joined with the recovery in other places to achieve a rise of almost 39%
over 2009 and 27.6% over the previous maximum 2008
2010
447.953
Vs 2009: +38,9%
Vs 2008: +27,6%
60000
500000
450000
2008
351.092
50000
400000
350000
+256,9%
40000
1998
237.497
Annualized exports (right)
300000
-8,1%
2009
322.495
30000
250000
-58,6%
200000
20000
150000
100000
10000
Polinomic monthly exports (left)
1999
98.362
Monthly Exports (left)
2003
108.158
50000
0
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
AUTOMOTIVE PRODUCTION DESTINATION. 2010
Export destination
500.000
A RM
127.81
8
126.96
8
GM
62%
38%
PSA
48%
52%
A Brasil
450.000
400.000
15%
350.000
Brazil growth
quantitatively
12%
300.000
29%
250.000
FORD
72%
28%
96.454
88%
200.000
85%
150.000
71%
FIAT
83%
17%
96.059
100.000
50.000
0
RENAULT
53%
47%
91.222
2008
VW
56%
44%
87.072
70%
MB 70% 30%
There are also a
concentration in
exported models
30%
16.461
IVECO
15% 85%
4.453
100
2008
Exportaciones
Export
2010
Quantity of exported models and accumulated
concentration of the exports . %
70.032
TOYOTA
2009
Mercado
interno
Domestic
market
80
2010
Q
(Modelos)
1
3
5
10
15
25
Concentración
2008
2010
16,4%
17,7%
36,5%
43,7%
53,5%
59,3%
83,6%
87,0%
94,8%
98,1%
100,0%
100,0%
60
Antigüedad
The number of
destinations to which vehicles are
sent in 2010 are
hightly concentrated compared with
2008
83
40
80
(meses)
66
20
16
11
0
Cant. Total de destinos
Destinations
Important
Destinos signif.destinations
1000 unid.)
(>(> 1000
units)
58
MAIN DESTINATION OF EXPORTS OF VEHICLES. 2010. (Units)
More than 1.000 units. 2010). Units.
Var 2010 vs 2009
Brasil
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
112.658
196.467
250.683
285.089
378.865
32,9%
Among the countries for which Argentina has
been gaining share in recent years, highlights
the
growth
of
Germany
(almost
exclusively
by Amarok), Venezuela (who returned to demandvehicles
, but not yet solved the problem of access to foreign
exchange)
Paraguay
and
Peru.
This group grew by 211.7% in 2010 compared to 2009
Exportaciones crecientes
Alemania
Uruguay
Venezuela
Paraguay
Peru
Vietman
6
4.726
8.858
1.285
3.729
864
747
5.114
19.201
2.142
4.329
1.488
1.817
5.723
5.931
2.680
1.821
1.788
676
5.636
696
1.297
422
1.248
11.641 1622,0%
9.202
63,3%
4.983 615,9%
211,7%
2.585
99,3%
1.580 274,4%
1.104 -11,5%
Exportaciones decrecientes
Mexico
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
52.680
21.666
3.104
1.405
40.152
16.100
2.659
1.144
39.662
12.959
1.688
620
17.482
2.223
2.502
149
24.209
4.926
3.738
1.354
38,5%
121,6%
49,4%
808,7%
Resto
25.808
26.867
25.720
5.075
3.766
-25,8%
TOTAL
236.789
316.410
351.092
322.495
447.953
On
the
other
hand,
it
also
important
the growth in Chile and Ecuador in 2010, but in a
context where the participation of Argentina as a
suppler is in decline in recent years
53,1%
This is due mainly, to the trade agreements between the
Andean countries with East Asian countries.
38,9%
Monthly vehicles exports
60.000
200%
49.740
50.000
150%
42.244
40.813
39.337
40.000
100%
29.361
30.000
In the first four months of 2011
exports totaled 142,773 units(+32,4%).
50%
20.000
0%
19.474
10.000
-50%
8.557
0
abr-11
mar-11
feb-11
dic-10
ene-11
oct-10
nov-10
sep-10
jul-10
ago-10
jun-10
may-10
abr-10
feb-10
mar-10
dic-09
ene-10
nov-09
oct-09
sep-09
ago-09
jul-09
jun-09
abr-09
may-09
feb-09
mar-09
ene-09
-100%
The fall in the graph corresponds to the normal
seasonality of the series.
FOREIGN TRADE OF THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
Foreign trade of the automotive industry. Vehícles and parts.
Millons US$
20.000
Saldo
Balance
Expo
Expo
Impo
Impo
17.038
Imports grew due
to strong demand
for vehicles, but mainly by the
demand for auto parts
14.804,4
15.000
12.882,4
10.930
8.727,7
10.000
7.472,9
6.052,7
4.566,0
9.005,1
3.296,9
2.510,8
5.000
6.276,1
3.755,0
2.753,1
2.334,6
2.091,1
-6.108
2011 e
2010 -5.799,3
-2.451,7
2009
2008 -5.409,5
2007
2006
2005 -2.297,8
2004
-419,7
2003
2002
-543,8
2001
-10.000
2000
-5.000
1999 -2.231,3
0
Trade balance of the industry. Vehicles and
parts . Millons US$
4.000
1.730,2
1.272,5
1.018,2
2.000
370,6
-151,1
0
In fact, the sector's trade deficit can
be explained solely by the
balance in auto parts
-2.000
-4.000
-3.724,1
-4.111,8
-6.000
-5.355,4
-8.000
-6.817,5
-6.309
Vehículos
-7.840,0
-10.000
SOURCE: ABECEB.COM
Autopartes
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 e
IMPORT AUTO PARTS IN AUGUST 2010 REACHED THE
HISTORICAL RECORD
Trade balance in parts. Millons US$
1.200
1.000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1.000
In August import of parts
recorded the record:
U.S. $883.9 MM
Imports
Exports
Trade balance
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Trade balance in auto parts, share of vehicles makers.
Millones US$
0
-1.000
-2.000
-3.000
-4.000
-5.000
-6.000
-7.000
-8.000
60,6%
87,0%
73,9%
75,8%
Realized bypor
vehicle
makers
Realizadas
terminales
64,6%
-1.297,6
-1.837,4
-2.855,8
Realized by other companies
And by vehivle makers
indirectly
-3.724,1
-6.309
2000
2004
2006
2009
2010
TRADE BALANCE OF AUTO PARTS
millons U$S (exports FOB, Imports CIF)
Exports
Imports
Trade balance
Períod
U$S mill.
U$S mill. FOB
U$S mill. CIF
1995
773
2.170
-1.397
1996
895
2.799
-1.904
1997
1.118
3.999
-2.880
1998
1.081
4.007
-2.926
1999
1.240
2.978
-1.738
2000
1.367
3.204
-1.837
2001
1.241
2.416
-1.176
2002
1.144
1.216
-72
2003
1.192
1.752
-561
2004
1.537
2.834
-1.298
2005
1.763
3.676
-1.914
2006
1.936
4.816
-2.879
2007
2.268
6.387
-4.120
2008
2.557
7.928
-5.370
2009
1.928
5.496
-3.568
2010
2.422
8.731
-6.309
Source: abeceb.com and INDEC.
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IMPORTS AND AUTO PARTS
VEHICLE PRODUCTION
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
Production
Source: AFAC
Import of auto parts
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
Import of parts - millions
U$S
800.000
700.000
600.000
500.000
400.000
300.000
200.000
100.000
0
1995
Prod - units
PRODUCTION OF VEHICLES AND IMPORT OF AUTO
PARTS, 1995-2010
AUTO PARTS EXPORTS BY DESTINATION COUNTRY
Parts
Brazil
FOB U$S 2010
1.576.884.960,5
Part. %
65,1%
2009
Var. % 10/09
1.234.625.612,6
27,7%
USA
141.173.732,2
5,8%
124.885.598,0
13,0%
Mexico
118.351.965,0
4,9%
80.876.286,7
46,3%
Chile
87.202.941,7
3,6%
64.827.579,1
34,5%
Venezuela
86.392.756,8
3,6%
78.602.156,5
9,9%
Spain
63.628.315,2
2,6%
44.251.157,9
43,8%
Germany
57.435.228,9
2,4%
48.368.096,5
18,7%
Uruguay
53.385.164,3
2,2%
43.733.394,8
22,1%
France
35.393.888,4
1,5%
26.019.599,1
36,0%
Paraguay
31.818.554,6
1,3%
24.110.163,3
32,0%
Colombia
21.228.445,3
0,9%
15.435.997,5
37,5%
Italy
17.309.541,8
0,7%
17.446.617,0
-0,8%
Bolivia
15.334.911,1
0,6%
17.387.663,1
-11,8%
Tchek Republik
14.986.364,3
0,6%
6.131.270,7
144,4%
Peru
14.943.983,4
0,6%
17.743.378,0
-15,8%
Southafrica
14.776.426,6
0,6%
7.529.643,7
96,2%
China
8.018.725,7
0,3%
4.709.624,6
70,3%
Ecuador
5.411.435,0
0,2%
3.536.747,1
53,0%
Canada
5.240.216,1
0,2%
5.016.059,5
4,5%
Belgium
4.809.650,7
0,2%
5.266.953,6
-8,7%
48.086.291,0
2,0%
57.301.240,3
-16,1%
2.421.813.499
100%
Rest of the world
Total
Source: abeceb.com and INDEC.
1.927.804.839
25,6%
AUTOPARTS EXPORTS, by components
Other metal
autopartsl Other autoparts
1%
1%
Other plastics
autoparts
3%
Interior
Equipment
3%
Shock absorbers,
steering and
suspensions
5%
Engines
5%
Forged and
castings
0%
Transmissions
40%
Electric pieces
7%
Wheels and
pneumatics
10%
Other rubber
autoparts
1%
Body and parts
10%
Source: abeceb.com and INDEC
Engine
components
13%
AUTO PARTS IMPORTS BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN
Country
U$S CIF 2010
Brazil
Share %
Ac share %
2009
Var. % 10/09
4.243.339.552
48,6%
48,6%
2.616.585.750
Germany
735.307.123
8,4%
57,0%
354.091.255
108%
China
505.865.351
5,8%
62,8%
264.772.041
91%
USA
446.649.877
5,1%
67,9%
349.793.709
28%
Japan
386.518.547
4,4%
72,4%
298.088.477
30%
France
352.472.503
4,0%
76,4%
241.350.267
46%
Spain
264.355.188
3,0%
79,4%
168.868.483
57%
Thailand
259.065.354
3,0%
82,4%
195.146.757
33%
Italy
202.533.279
2,3%
84,7%
107.062.212
89%
Mexico
126.270.971
1,4%
86,2%
75.018.712
68%
Uruguay
105.389.838
1,2%
87,4%
70.573.048
49%
Korea
70.950.793
0,8%
88,2%
26.472.026
168%
Tchek Republik
64.660.957
0,7%
88,9%
30.406.046
113%
Turkey
61.438.725
0,7%
89,6%
40.344.713
52%
Chile
59.589.686
0,7%
90,3%
43.613.203
37%
United Kingdom
51.621.538
0,6%
90,9%
40.401.230
28%
India
43.963.304
0,5%
91,4%
21.917.684
101%
Poland
42.812.391
0,5%
91,9%
16.439.494
160%
Taiwan
33.608.999
0,4%
92,3%
23.221.392
45%
Canada
31.528.215
0,4%
92,6%
20.900.731
51%
642.600.604
7,4%
100,0%
490.516.585
31%
Rest of the world
Total
8.730.542.795
Source: abeceb.com and INDEC.
100,0%
5.495.583.815
62%
AUTOPARTS IMPORTS, by components
Otrher
Other plastic autoparts
parts
2%
Breaks 3%
3%
Air conditioner
systems,
heating and
parts 2%
Shock
absorbers,
steering and
suspension
4%
Other metal
autoparts
1%
Transmission
23%
Engine parts
12%
Interior
equipment
6%
Wheels and
pneumatics
7%
Engines Body and parts
11%
11%
Source: abeceb.com and INDEC
Electric pieces
12%
AUTO PARTS TRADE DEFICIT BY CATEGORY %
Share %
-16,1%
Transmission
Interior equipment
Electric equipment
Engines
Parts of engines
Bodys and parts
Wheels, pneumatics
Brakes
Shock absorbers, steerings and suspensions
Air conditioning systems, hesting and parts
Other parts
Plastic parts
Forge and cast
Rubber parts
Metal parts
-13,4%
-13,0%
-12,2%
-11,5%
-10,1%
-5,5%
-3,0%
-2,9%
-2,7%
-2,5%
-2,4%
-2,1%
-1,4%
-1,2%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
EXAMPLES OS INVESTMENT NEEDED AUTO PARTS
Airbags and pre-tensioning seat belts.
Air conditioning compressor.
"Green" tires
Electronic Components
Steering wheels.
Braking system and its components
Aluminum Tubes for Air conditioning
Belts.
Shafts.
Adjustable and collapsible
steering column
Micro switches
Precision Forging.
ABS
Instrument panel
Clutches
Power steering pumps.
Steering box.
Locks.
Fuel pump.
Clutch discs.
Foundry.
Ignition key.
Electric motors.
Brake pads.
Electronic sensors
Engine injection system (pump,
injectors, pipes, electronics).
Door lock systems.
Fuel tank cap.
Hubcaps
Tube filled fuel tank (plastic piece blown).
Nylon fuel pipes trilayer
ARGENTINA: SCENARIOS FOR 2011
Proyected variables of the automotive industry in Argentina. Units
BRASIL 2011
Registrations
3.620.000
ARGENTINA 2011
Made in
Argentina
760000
740000
720000
40%
38%
40%
38%
40%
38%
12%
837.732
822.228
829.572
814.476
821.412
806.724
13%
856.194
840.690
848.034
832.938
839.874
825.186
3.680.000
12%
845.076
829.572
836.916
821.820
828.756
814.068
13%
863.844
848.340
855.684
840.588
847.524
832.836
PROYECTION OF THE MAN VARIABLES OF THE AUTOMOTIVE
INDUSTRY IN ARGENTINA
2006
Production
Sales
National
Imported
Exports
Expo/Prod.
Nat./Prod.
Nat./Sales
2007
PROYECTIONS
2008
2009
2010
2011(p)
432.101
544.647
597.086
512.924
716.540
840.600
460.478
564.926
610.782
514.923
662.591
740.000
188.479
234.354
238.465
206.999
250.724
281.200
271.999
330.572
372.317
307.924
411.867
458.800
236.789
316.410
351.092
322.495
447.953
550.000
54,8%
58,1%
58,8%
62,9%
62,5%
65,5%
43,6%
43,0%
39,9%
40,4%
35,0%
33,5%
40,9%
41,5%
39,0%
40,2%
37,8%
38,0%
Vehicles production. Thousands units
Vehicles production in Argentina. Medium term proyections.
Units
1.000
Resto del año
900
1.037,51.128,7
1.200
4 meses
800
700
600
632,7
500
535,0
400
Monthly
average in
order to reach
864,6
thousands
vehicles in
2011
950,1
864,6
1.000
716,5
800
544,6 597,1 512,9
600
432,1
418,0
400
405,7
404,1
300
322,5
200
70 mil u
200
231,9
0
100
109,7
139,0
179,1
108,8
181,5
0
2006
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 (e)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
(e)
2012
(p)
2013
(p)
2014
(p)
FINAL COMMENTS
The automotive industry has a medium-term growth perspective.
External demand will keep rising due to growing domestic market in Brazil
and the recovery of other foreign markets (especially Latinamerica) that also have
good market prospects.
At the same time, domestic demand will continue to pull the production as
economic growth will continues to growth up based in the expansion of consumption.
With this perspective, the outlook for domestic production of vehicles in 2011 put the
figure at about 864.600 vehicles, with proyections to reach one million units by 2013.
However, growth in production will result in the growth in imports of auto
parts (for the original market for the increased production and the aftermarket by
the growth in the vehicle fleet) and therefore a trend towards the increase in the deficit
of the trade balance of the industry.
For these reasons the Argentine Government is working to promote investments in order
to increase local capacity in manufacturing auto parts.
ASOCIACIÓN DE FÁBRICAS ARGENTINAS DE COMPONENTES
Thank you!
June, 2011
Viamonte 1167, 2do. piso. Buenos Aires, ARGENTINA
Tel. +54 11 4375-0516 Fax +54 11 4814-3434
E-mail: [email protected]
www.afac.org.ar