Presentation to Press - World Energy Outlook

World Energy Outlook 2009
Presentation to the Press
London, 10 November 2009
© OECD/IEA - 2009
The context
„ The worst economic slump since the 2nd World War & signs of
recovery – but how fast?
„ An oil price collapse & then a rebound – rising marginal costs point to
higher prices in the longer term,
term but are current levels sustainable?
„ A slump in energy investment due to the financial & economic crisis –
will it bounce back quickly enough to avert a supply squeeze later?
„ Difficult negotiations on a post-2012 climate deal leading up to
Copenhagen – what is needed to avert catastrophic climate change?
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Mtoe
World primary energy demand
in the Reference Scenario
12 000
China and India
Rest of non-OECD
10 000
OECD
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Non-OECD countries account for 93% of the increase in global demand
between 2007 & 2030, driven largely by China & India
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Change in primary energy demand
in the Reference Scenario, 20072007-2030
OECD
Coal
Non-OECD
Oil
Gas
N l
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass
Other renewables
- 500
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
Mtoe
Fossil fuels account for 77% of the increase in world primary energy demand in 2007-2030,
with oil demand rising from 85 mb/d in 2008 to 88 mb/d in 2015 & 105 mb/d in 2030
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Billion dollars
Worldwide upstream oil & gas
capital expenditures
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008 2009*
* Budgeted spending
Global upstream spending (excluding acquisitions) is budgeted to fall by over $90 billion,
or 19%, in 2009 – the first fall in a decade
© OECD/IEA - 2009
mb/d
Oil production
in the Reference Scenario
120
NGLs
Unconventional oil
100
Crude oil – fields yet to be developed
or found
Crude oil – currently producing fields
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2008
2030
Sustained investment is needed mainly to combat the decline in output at existing fields,
which will drop by almost two-thirds by 2030
© OECD/IEA - 2009
tcm
Impact of decline on world natural gas production
in the Reference Scenario
5
100%
4
80%
Currently producing fields
3
60%
Share from fields not yet producing
(right axis)
2
40%
1
20%
0
0%
2007
2015
2020
2025
Fields yet to be developed or found
2030
Additional capacity of around 2 700 bcm, or 4 times current Russian capacity, is needed
by 2030 – half to offset decline at existing fields & half to meet the increase in demand
© OECD/IEA - 2009
bcm
US natural gas supply
in the Reference Scenario
700
70%
Net imports
600
60%
Conventional
500
50%
400
40%
300
30%
200
20%
100
10%
0
Unconventional
Share of unconventional
in totall supply
l
0%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030
Thanks mainly to shale gas, US gas output grows gradually through to 2030,
outstripping demand & squeezing imports
© OECD/IEA - 2009
bcm
Natural gas transportation capacity
800
73%
700
600
500
Unutilised LNG liquefaction
& pipeline capacity
LNG trade
88%
Pipeline trade
400
% Capacity utilisation rate
300
200
100
0
2007
2015
A glut of gas is developing – reaching 200 bcm by 2015 – due to weaker than expected
demand & plentiful US unconventional supply, with far-reaching implications for gas pricing
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Indicative costs for potential new sources of gas
delivered to Europe, 2020 ($/MBtu
($/MBtu))
Although indigenous resources are limited & output is declining, Europe is
geographically well placed to secure gas supplies from a variety of external sources
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Billio
on dollars (2008)
Average annual expenditure on net imports
of oil & gas in the Reference Scenario
600
1971-2008
2%
500
2008-2030
% Share of GDP
2%
400
3%
300
200
1%
100
3%
1%
6%
3%
2%
1%
3%
0
European
Union
United
States
China
Japan
India
0.4%
ASEAN
The Reference Scenario implies persistently high spending on oil & gas imports, with China
overtaking the United States by around 2025 to become the world's biggest spender
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Number of people without access to electricity
in the Reference Scenario (millions)
World population without
access to electricity
2008: 1.5 billion people
2030: 1.3 billion people
$35 billion per year more investment than in the Reference Scenario would be needed to 2030
– equivalent to just 5% of global power-sector investment – to ensure universal access
© OECD/IEA - 2009
The policy mechanisms
in the 450 Scenario
„ A combination of policy mechanisms, which best reflects nations’
varied circumstances & negotiating positions
„ We differentiate on the basis of three country groupings
> OECD+: OECD & other non-OECD EU countries
> Other Major
j Economies (OME): Brazil,, China,, Middle East,, Russia & South Africa
f
> Other Countries (OC): all other countries, including India & ASEAN
„ A graduated approach
> Up to 2020, only OECD+ have national emissions caps
> After 2020, Other Major Economies are also assumed to adopt emissions caps
> Through to 2030, Other Countries continue to focus on national measures
„ Emissions peaking by 2020 will require
> A CO2 price of $50 per tonne for power generation & industry in OECD+
> Investment needs in non-OECD countries of $200 billion in 2020, supported by
OECD+ through carbon markets & co-financing
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Abatement by policy type in the 450 Scenario
relative to the Reference Scenario, 2020
Emissions
Reference Scenario
Abatement:
Domestic policies and measures
OECD+
Other Major Economies
Sectoral agreements
Other Countries
OECD+ cap-and-trade for
power and industry
(including international credits)
450 Scenario
30
31
32
33
34
35
Gt
After realising the abatement potential of policies & measures and sectoral approaches,
cap-and-trade in OECD+ yields a further 1.8 Gt
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Mtoe
World primary energy demand by fuel
in the 450 Scenario
12 000
36%
10 000
30%
8 000
24%
6 000
18%
4 000
12%
2 000
6%
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Fossil fuels
Zero-carbon fuels
Share of zero- carbon fuels
(right axis)
0%
2030
In the 450 Scenario, demand for fossil fuels peaks by 2020, and by 2030 zero-carbon fuels
make up a third of the world's primary sources of energy demand
© OECD/IEA - 2009
mb/d
World oil production
by scenario
120
Non-OPEC
OPEC
100
16 mb/d
80
60
11 mb/d
40
20
36
mb/d
0
2008
Reference Scenario
2030
450 Scenario
2030
Curbing CO2 emissions would also improve energy security by cutting oil demand, but even
in the 450 Scenario, OPEC production increases by 11 mb/d between now and 2030
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Trillion dollars (2008)
Cumulative OPEC oil export revenues
by scenario
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
Reference Scenario
1985-2007
450 Scenario
2008-2030
Though slightly lower than in the Reference Scenario, OPEC revenues in the 450 Scenario
are over four times as high as in the last 20 years
© OECD/IEA - 2009
bcm
World primary natural gas demand
by scenario
4 500
Reference Scenario
+41% (1 264 bcm)
450 Scenario
3 750
+17% (511 bcm)
3 000
2 250
1 500
750
0
2007
2015
2020
2025
2030
Gas demand continues to grow in both scenarios, peaking by around 2025 in the 450 Scenario
& highlighting the potential role of gas as a transition fuel to a clean energy future
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Gt
World abatement of energyenergy-related CO2 emissions
in the 450 Scenario
42
Reference Scenario
40
World abatement by technology
38
2030
13.8 Gt
65%
57%
OECD+
36
34
13.8 Gt
3.8 Gt
32
OC
28
450 Scenario
2015
2020
Efficiency
OME
30
26
2007 2010
2020
3.8 Gt
2025
Renewables
& biofuels
Nuclear
CCS
19%
13%
3%
23%
10%
10%
2030
An additional $10.5 trillion of investment is needed in total in the 450 Scenario, with
measures to boost energy efficiency accounting for most of the abatement through to 2030
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Gt
Abatement in the 450 Scenario by key emitters, 2020
1.4
International carbon markets
1.2
Cap & trade in power
& industry sectors
Internation sectoral standards
in transport & industry
National policies
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
China
United
States
European
Union
India
Russia
Japan
China, the United States, the European Union, India, Russia & Japan account for almost
three-quarters of the 3.8 Gt reduction in the 450 Scenario
© OECD/IEA - 2009
TWh
Incremental world electricity production
in the Reference and 450 Scenarios, 2007
2007--2030
7 000
Reference Scenario
6 000
450 Scenario
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
-1 000
Coal
Gas
Oil
Nuclear Hydro Wind Biomass Solar Other
renewables
Renewables, nuclear and plants fitted with CCS account for around 60% of electricity
generation globally in 2030 in the 450 Scenario, up from less than one-third today
© OECD/IEA - 2009
100%
250
80%
200
205
150
6
60%
40%
100
125
90
20%
0%
Grammes per kilometre
Share of sales
World passenger vehicle sales & average new vehicle
CO2 intensity in the 450 Scenario
Electric vehicles
Plug-in hybrids
Hybrid vehicles
ICE vehicles
CO2 intensity
i
i
of new vehicles
(right axis)
50
0
2007
2020
2030
Improvements to the internal combustion engine & the uptake of next-generation vehicles &
biofuels lead to a 56% reduction in new-car emission intensity by 2030
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Summary & conclusions
„ The financial crisis has halted the rise in global fossil-energy use, but its
long-term upward path will resume soon on current policies
„ Tackling climate change & enhancing energy security require a massive
decarbonisation of the energy system
> We are now on course for a 6°C temperature rise & rising energy costs
> Limiting
i i i temperature rise
i to 2°C will
ill require
i big
bi emission
i i reductions
d i
in
i all
ll
regions
„ A 450 path towards ‘Green Growth’ would bring substantial benefits
> Avoiding the worst effects & costs of climate change
> Energy-security benefits, lower oil & gas imports & reduced energy bills
> Much less air pollution & huge health benefits
„ Natural gas can play a key role as a bridge to a cleaner energy future
„ The challenge is enormous – but it can and must be met
> Improved energy efficiency & technology deployment are critical
> Each year of delay adds $500 bn to mitigation costs between today & 2030
© OECD/IEA - 2009