Trends of the world economy - Facultés des Sciences Juridiques

Trends of the world economy: how competition landscape will look like in
the next decades?
Elhadj Ezzahid
Mohammed V-Agdal University
Faculty of Law and Economics
Rabat-Morocco
e-mail: [email protected]
Draft 1-to be presented to the 2nd International Symposium on
Education, Psychology, Society and Tourism
(ISEPST 2014)-Tokyo-Japan
Abstract
Policymakers must never lose the big picture concerning the ongoing
transformations affecting world competition. These transformations affect the
major players, the driving industries, and the most important innovations that
will shape the world trade and business in the coming years. The major
geographic transformation will be the consecration of Asia’s countries as the
major players in both exporting and importing. The locus of world competitions
will be for decades in Asia. The most active industries will be those related to
Internet, human mobility, energy economizing, and diseases’ fighting and health
care activities. Innovations related to the driving industries will be the most
important in forging the competitive advantage of countries.
Key words
Trends, World economy, Global value chain, World competition
1
1. Introduction
The world economy is, in each period, dominated by some
countries/regions,
by
some
industries
and
driven
by
some
innovations/technologies that are shaping the nature, the pace, and the pattern of
international competition. A full knowledge of the over-average growing
countries and the driving industries and innovations are essential for a good
understanding of the trends shaping the future economy. Any country must have
a deep knowledge of these elements in order to survive in the world competition.
The importance of the thinking about the current transformations of the
world economy stems from the fact that we are eyewitnesses of a big change
that constitute a historical transformation. We are in a moment of a passage from
an era to a new one. It is a real bifurcation. This transformation carries plenty of
opportunities but is also a source of unprecedented tremendous risks.
In this paper we will explore the engines of the world economy. The
objective is to help policymakers to identify the main elements that drive the
world economy. This may help to devise a strategy founded on deep, solid, and
robust understanding of industrial, regional, technological, and social
transformations shaping the world economy.
The paper is structured as follows. In the second section, I outline a longrun historical perspective of the world economy. In the third section, I discuss
the regional powers that are currently the leaders of the world economy and
those countries that are going to be major players since now or in the 5, 10 or 20
coming years. In the fourth section, some ideas about the leading sectors in the
world economy are discussed. In the fifth section, the technological drivers of
growth are explored. The last section serves to conclude.
1. A long run perspective of the world economy
The phenomenon of growth is a rather modern fact. Major transformations
in the 16th century brought in a beginning of sustainable growth. It was in the
Western Europe and especially England that this growth took its inception1.
1
It is probable that the new institutional set up introduced by the glorious revolution that
occurred consequently to the Magna Carta Libertatum in England at 1215 a.c. was the
determinant of the fact that the first country that known the industrial revolution is England.
For the discussion of the role of institutions in development see Acemoglu and Robinson
(2013) and Acemoglu (2003).
2
Even if China was the most important country in terms of GDP in this period,
the steady growth in Western Europe took the countries of this region it
far/further from other countries. In the end of the 18th century and the beginning
of the 19th century, West Europe began to control the world and the European
countries become the most powerful economically with unrivaled military
power.
The inception of growth was the consequence of the fact that Occident
discovered modern science and began to use it methodologically to harness
nature, to produce wealth and arms and to organize human activities. Its growing
superiority in this respect has allowed colonizing other countries and canalizing
their efforts for its self interest. Thus, science has become a powerfull
instrument to increase its power and to limit the freedom of others. For some,
this undesirable result of science is just a negative externality.
The “new organon”,2 which is the modern science, was in a sense the
major driver of the industrial revolution3. Even if China was in the beginning of
the 19th century the biggest economy with practically half the world GDP
(Maddison, …) it began to lag comparatively to England first and then to
Germany and France. The new tool, which is the use of science to produce,
made possible the use stream engines and many other inventions to decuple the
power of the process of production. This is what is known as the first industrial
revolution.
Germany was the first continental country to understand what is going on.
Hard work and science traditions helped Germany to catch up England by the
end of the third quarter of the 19th century. One feature of the catch up of
Germany was the strong involvement of the State in the process of German
industrialization. This pattern will be omnipresent of the industrialization
experience of Japan in the end of the same century, of the East Asian countries
in the second half of the 20th century, and of China since its openness in 1978.
2
3
This is the title of the famous book of F. Bacon (1620).
Maddison say that “… the development of Baconian, Galilean and Newtonian science,
systematic experimentation, and the spread of university education and creation of
academies of science unleashed a Promethean advance of secular knowledge which was a
fundamental prerequisite for later technological development” (Maddison, 2008, p. 77).
3
The Japanese organized their industrialization during the Meiji era. They
saw the big picture4 clear in 1868 when an American commander arrived to their
coasts and imposed the use of their land for trade. Their strategic diagnostic was
clear. The west has a tool they do not have. It had science that is used to produce
wealth and guns and the society is organized so as all participate in an open
political system. It took for Japanese less than 40 years to harness the new tool
and to use it to gain a war against till feudal Russia in 1905.
The World War I is the moment of the end of what some call the first
episode of globalization (Frieden, 2011). For many alerted observers the
supremacy of England was deeply eroded. Many deep transformations occurred
in the World. A lasting effects revolution occurred in Russia. The Hapsburg and
Ottoman empires disaggregated. In the other side of the Atlantic, the United
States of America become the first economic power. An aggressive capitalism, a
large and rich geography, a more interest to using scientific knowledge to
organize complex and lucrative value chains, a political system that is far from
being predatory and no implication in world affairs were the elements that
provided to the USA the necessary preconditions to be the leader of the western
world at least until the so-called decline of its relative power in the last decades
of the 20th century and the first years of the 21 century.
In the post WWII era, the world competition was essentially between
USA, Europe, and Japan. This was described by the famous Triad concept
proposed in the 1980s by K. Ohmae. The scene changed slightly in late 1970s
when some East-Asia countries organized their industrialization. South Korea,
Taiwan, Malaysia, and Singapore became recognized players in world
competition. Another major transformation occurred in 1990s when China and a
bundle of other countries handled the major ingredients to join the club of world
giants.
2. Countries and regions that are driving the world economy
2.1. The continuous vitality of Germany and of the U.S.A.
The world competition in the coming years will be characterized by the
struggle between ancient and newcomers5 in all activities to develop new
4
No country will succeed if it fails to develop a reliable understanding of the big picture. No
strategy will be devised if a country is kidnapped by a predatory elite (the case of almost all
Arab countries).
5
Remember that really in a sense the world become flat (Friedman, 200…).
4
technologies, to control the most lucrative segments, to develop strategies to
reap the profits from new markets and benefit from the growing revenues in
emerging economies. The ancient established players continue to have an
advantage in many areas such as, for example, in automotive industry. Indeed,
the “Triad OEMs, especially European and Japanese OEMs, have a clear
competitive advantage concerning traditional gasoline and diesel based power
train technology. There is still enormous efficiency gain potential in this
technology and no emerging OEM will be able to rival the triad OEMs in
respect to this advantage”6 (ArthurDLittle, 2012, p. 2).
K. Ohmae coined the concept triad to condensate the fact that in the 1970s
and the 1980s world competition was between three centers: North America,
Europe, and Japan. In coming times, and for demographic, political, historical,
and even racial reasons Japan will be just a developed area without great impact
on the World. Japan lacks the opportunity to be in a dynamic environment with
open culture and dynamic migration policy.
Contrary to this country the other members of the triad continue to benefit
from the advantage of openness and to be the heart of a dynamic space. The
reasons explaining this continuous/renewed dynamism of the United States of
America and of Germany are the nature of their two capitalisms that are deeply
different but equally efficient and their openness to world economy by human,
cultural, and financial ties. Most will argue that Germany is less open than the
USA. They are right but Germany is very open compared to Japan. German
policymakers understand very well the importance of migration and of
developing tight ties with other people.
2.2. China and India: the real new world
By the end of 2012, the population of China and India was approximately
40% of the world population. Recently, China becomes the second economy in
the World. In my opinion, what we will see in the coming 40 to 50 years is the
revenge of the demographic factor. As people and the aware elites discover how
6
OEM is the abbreviation of original equipment manufacturers.
5
education and human capital are important they intensify investment in humans7.
The first consequence of investment in humans in good managed economies is
the regular increase of productivity8. And the final consequence will be a huge
increase in the global GDP of countries with huge population such as China and
India. By a simple arithmetic operation we, very sooner-30 to 50 years, will
found these two countries in the top of the list of countries accordingly to size of
their GDP.
Our analysis do not take into account any accident that may occur such as a
devastating war, an unprecedented epidemic disease, a severe long draught in
China, or any other event that we do not even know9. China’s growing
contribution in world economy has all the capabilities to be sustainable. “In
2010, China overtook the United States as the World’s largest producer of
manufactured goods with market share of 19,8%” (Ahearn, 2011, p. 11).
By 2060, the world economy will look much different than we are
habituated to see. “Fast growth in China and India will make their combined
GDP measured at 2005 purchase power parities (ppps), soon surpass that of G7
economies and exceed that of the entire current OECD membership by 2060”
(OECD, 2012, p. 8)
2.3. From the BRICS to a more large group of leading emerging countries
The BRICS concept is conceived by the analysts of Goldman Sachs in …
to describe the growing importance of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South
Africa as drivers of growth in the world economy. This group of countries will
play a critical role in the few coming years. “By 2020, the BRICS are expected
to account for nearly 50% of all global GDP growth” (Ernest &Young, 2011, p.
4)
The new industrialized countries lead the world because their demand
increased hugely in the last years. Indeed, the shifting world trade appears
especially if we analyze the demand side. The table below gives the rate of
7
Human capital is a determinant of growth if it is accomplished in an economy with adequate
institutions (See for a thorough discussion: Acemoglu, 2003, Acemoglu and Robinson,
2011, Easterly, 1997)
8
Many Arab countries invest in humans but with mediocre institutions and non performant
management of the economy, and extractive policies devised by predatory elites.
9
This is what Nicholas Taleb (2010) call a black snow in his brilliant book. I think that for
someone to be deparadigmatized and be prepared for the future Taleb’s book is really to read.
6
growth of merchandise’ imports over the period 2005-2010 of a sample of
countries. That is, the prominent role of a country in the international trade is
revealed also proportionally to its purchasing power.
Growth’ rate of merchandise’ imports over 2005-2010
USA
Growth’ rate 14%
European Union
Brazil
India
China South Africa
27%
147%
129
%
111
%
51%
Source: (Gereffi and Lee, 2012, p. 28)
2.4. The new comers: Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria,
and Indonesia
In this group we find, surprisingly, essentially Islamic countries. Apart
this feature, this group is rather heterogonous. Because we find countries that are
equipped with different institutional setups and at different development stages.
Some are considered as in the edge of emergence such as Turkey and Indonesia
and other are just struggling to fix the political framework such as Egypt. Some
have an ancient open tradition. Others will have great problems to lie down the
foundations of inclusive institutions in the sense of Acemoglu and Robinson as
discussed in their famous book Why nations fail? (Acemoglu and Robinson,
2012).
The important factors that favor these countries are either geography and
demography or both. Some countries are good located such as Turkey or Iran.
Some have locations in more adverse environment. Some countries have
compact populations such as Saudi Arabia, Algeria and other tremendous
populations such as Indonesia and Nigeria.
For each country there are weaknesses and many factors that are in their
advantage. For Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Iran I think that the most
important impediment to development and emergence is establishing down the
foundations of inclusive institutions (Acemoglu, 2003, Acemoglu and Robinson,
2012 ). Turkey and Indonesia are much more near the breaking point to achieve
the transition to a stage characterized by more prosperity, more contribution in
the world economy with tremendous benefits for their inhabitants.
3. The most active industries/sectors
7
Many criteria may be used to identify a set of key sectors that are or will
be the most active in the future. Three criteria will be privileged. The first is the
rate of growth of a given sector. The second is the share of the sector or branch
in the world economy or world trade. A third criterion is the structuring effect of
a sector. Some sectors that are of small business importance are very important
because they guide world innovation and their impact is more important
comparatively to the level of their activities.
First of all we have to identify the playing forces that are shaping the
productive sectors. In my opinion, three forces must be highlighted. The first is
the widespread use of ICT in all activities10. Information and communication
technologies are structuring and determining the features and patterns of all
productive sectors. The networks that emerged, with Internet at the core, are a
fundamental fact that will deeply affects the process of wealth creation (Dizard,
1997).
The second factor is identified by T. L. Friedman in his best seller “The
World is flat” (Friedman, 2006). T. Friedman remarked that the actual
globalization is characterized by the transformation of the world competition so
as the traditional division of labor is rapidly out passed. Consequently,
newcomers are competing with old ones in the most complex activities of the
supply chain. We can push further Friedman’s analysis to conclude that, apart in
some region of the world11, all players become aware of what is going on and
what is necessary for them to compete in the world economy.
The third factor is the globalization of supply chains. That is the process
of value added creation is conceived, coordinated, optimized, an executed taking
all the possibilities worldwide (Berger, 2006, Gereffi and Lee, 2012). This
evolution implies running operations and flows across different countries and
locations. This trend is facilitated by low transport and communication costs.
The globalization of the supply chain is documented by many scholars. The
global value chain or the equivalent global supply chain becomes a centerpiece
10
The importance of ICT is a new phase of the phenomenon of increasing use of knowledge
in economic process in the stages of design, production, and marketing.
11
The Arab world is lagging behind all other regions. Arab elites devised the system so as to be superpredators. Complex geostrategic factors contribute in this. In the Arab world we have simply a
strategic vacuum used by others for their interest.
8
in the literature (Gereffi and Lee, 2012). The importance of this globalization
appears clearly if we scrutinize the importance of intermediate goods traded
across borders and the growing part of imported items in the process of
production of items to be exported. “In 2009, world exports of intermediate
goods exceeded the combined exports value of final and capital goods,
representing 51 percent of nonfuel merchandise exports” (Gereffi and Lee, 2012,
p. 25).
The fourth factor is much linked to the third. It is related to the
unprecedented level of complexity of reality (Homer-Dixon, 2011). Indeed, our
world is structured as networks that are constituted of many elements in
continuous changing interactions. The complexity characterizes socio-economic
sphere, the geographic, natural, and climatic sphere, and the technological
sphere. The consequence is non-linearity of these networks which makes them
unpredictable (Homer-Dixon, 2011 and Ohmae, 1996). As a corollary of the
non-linearity of economic, political, and social landscape it is impossible to
forecast the impact of a change and more importantly the location of the
apparition of its future impact12.
The consequences of these evolutions on productive sectors are difficult
to disentangle. In the long run, we do observed a decline of agriculture and
manufacturing in world GDP. So the share of services sector increased from
52% in 1970 to 68% in 2005. The part of agriculture decreased from 10% in
1970 to 3.6% in 2005. The contribution of manufacturing fell from 38% to 29%
in the same period (Memedovic, 2010, p. 6). Since 2005, we observed a reversal
of this trend. If we believe in the very long run trends, it is very likely that in the
future the relative contribution of services sector continued to rise in the world
GDP and in the GDP of each country13.
The global trend in aggregate sectors is totally misleading to devise an
industrial strategy. A more detailed analysis must be undertaken to detect lasting
transformations and relevant knowledge. The data about the average structure of
12
For K. Ohmae the current competition landscape is totally different comparatively to the
mechanical pre-1970s world. He observed that one manifestation of non-linearity is
loosening of links between demand, supply, and jobs creation (Ohmae, 1996).
13
We can also assert this if we take account of the fact that “North America is the only region
where tertiarization has continued throughout the whole period, with services’ value added
share rising from 63 to 76 percent between 1970 and 2008”. (Memedovic, 2010, p. 6)
9
manufacturing sector in 30 countries in 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2006
reveals some transformations in sectors that their share in total manufacturing.
The shares of four subsectors significantly increased. These sub-sectors are
“chemicals and chemical products”, “Machinery and equipment n.e.c +office,
accounting and computing machinery”, “Electrical machinery and apparatus
+radio television and communication equipment”, and “Medical, precision and
optical instruments” (Memedovic, 2010, table 1, p. 13). I am convinced that
even this second level is totally misleading because the imperative to master a
segment of the value chain necessitates to analyze subsubsectors (I really write
subsubsectors) for which the countries have the necessary skills.
4. The emergent technologies
Since the 16th century the technologies that dominated the productive
sectors underwent continuous change leading to emergence of new efficient
technologies. J. Schumpeter (1936) termed the process of decline of old
technologies and the consequent emergence of new ones “creative destruction”.
In the beginning of the 1990s, P. Aghion and P Howitt constructed an analytical
model to endogenously explain growth by the continuous process of innovation.
Understanding the set of technologies or innovations that are driving productive
sectors is at the top of the work of policymakers in all countries that seek to have
a place in the world economy. The table below summarizes the major
technological transformations since the inception of industrial revolution in the
16th century.
New technologies will be conceived, developed, and commercialized to face
the major following problems. The first is to strengthen, facilitate, robustify,
secure, and generalize the use of IT technologies in production, coordination,
learning, entertainment, and all human activities. The second driving force in
shaping and determining the emerging industries is to have faster treatment of
information, more connectivity between agents, computers, persons,
organizations, and more intelligence embedded in objects such as phones,
medical items, shoes, and other daily used objects (Gallaire, 1998).
10
Table: Synoptic characteristics of the eras since the beginning of industrial revolution
Technology/
Sources of Major sciences
Imperative
industry
energy
th
Steam
enginessteel
Coal
PhysicsMastering nature
18 century to
th
thermodynamics
the mid of 19
century
technology- Coal-oil
Electricity,
Producing
new
From the mid of Steel
th
railway
networks,
Iron
chemical
science
products
the 19 to the
beginning
of Electricity telephony,
th
20 century
automobile Oil
Social
sciences- Organizing
From the 1920s The
industry,
Radio,
Quanta
physics
production
to the beginning
Aviation
of WW II
Oil
Electronics
Mass production for
From 1945 to ElectronicsTelevisionCybernetics
mass consumption
1974
refrigerator,
semiconductors
From 1974 to Aero-technologic
the
end
of innovations
computer science
Oil
Computer Science Efficient use of
Robotics-biology
energy- Conquering
spaceMastering
information flows
Computer science- Reducing the cost of
telecomunicationsinformation
Nanotechnology
treatment
1980s
From the end of
1980s to the end
of the1990s
From the end of
the 1990s to
now
Mobile phonesOil
Internet- data transfer
technology
ICTAlternatives Oil- Biofuels- Networks science, Connectivitytechnologies
to Solar energy
biotechnology
treating big data
produce energy- Big
data analysis
Sources: Author’ compilation from various sources
A third determinant of the most promising technologies is the growing
ecological concerns. It appears that nature’s protection is not only public but
also superior good. That is, the people’s awareness of the importance of this
good (nature’s protection) increases with the income of a country or a person.
Furthermore, the available evidence such as about the warming of climate, the
necessity to increase water use efficiency, the importance of natural diversity for
the quality of human beings are the drivers of the development of whole
industries. For Jeremy Rifkin the concerns about ecology, the emergence of an
alternative source of energy, and the nature and of ICT will converge to lay
down the base/infrastructure of the third industrial revolution (Rifkin, 2011).
In coming years the industry if air transport and tourism will be one of the
key industries. The reason behind this is the growing number of a medium class
in the world that uses a more important share of its income for travelling and
11
entertainment. Asia will be the most important source of tourists. More than 500
million of persons will join the middle class in India and China.
5. Strategies for the future
We live in a world characterized by a worldwide eager competition,
interdependency between all actors, the rapid transformation of technology, the
arriving of new competitors, the emergence of new challenges such as climate
change. Policymakers have to develop a deep understanding of the new
landscape to devise policies commensurable with the new challenges.
I always considered what is usable in many situations as more important
than what is very important in just one situation. What have multi-uses is much
more productive and valuable and its value decreases slowly. In the same
manner, in any country investment must be directed to acquire competences,
knowledge, assets that are multi-usable. The history taught us that countries,
people, species, civilizations that pushed the improvement of something to the
maximum reduced the probability that they readapt to an abrupt bifurcation of
history.
In his famous book “The Black Snow”, N. Taleb (2010) explained how
rare and highly consequential events shape the evolution of social,
technological, and natural systems. Furthermore, he proved that these events are
simply impossible to forecast. For this reason, the best strategy is to robustify a
system against their unavoidable occurrence. That means that infrastructures
such as the banking system, the ecological system, the political system, the
network of national producing firms, the national system of telecommunications
must continue to function and provide critical services even if they are hited by
an unpredictable and highly disastrous event.
In his “the Global next stage; challenges and opportunities in our
borderless world”, K. Ohmae remarked that “the economic, political, social,
corportate, and personal rules that now apply bear scant relation to those
applicable two decades ago” (2005, p. xv). This new landscape requires creative
and unusual responses. The use of “platforms for progress” will be necessary to
perform will in this competition (Ohmae, 2005). Furthermore, K. Ohmae
asserted that if we agree with the idea that “the global economy is powered by
technology, then knowledge is its precious metal” (Ohmae, 2005, p. xxiv).
12
Uncertainty about an event is a major concern when this event will have
dramatic consequences that command the survival or the position of a country, a
corporation, a person in any hierarchy. One method to develop a big picture
about the evolution of the future is to ask critic, free minded, and responsible
persons-perhaps from outside the country or the corporation- of their prospects
concerning the future. By this method more fragments of relevant information
are taken into account. Recall the fact that knowledge which is the base of action
is information viewed from particular perspective. That is information
transformed into knowledge and then into strategy.
Human were habituated to use established rules to react to the challenge
of their environment. These attitudes were rational because the functioning of
their environment was stable and the constitution of routines, established rules,
pre-determined strategies provide really a tool to handle the problems faced by
individuals, agents, corporations, and governments. In the new changing
landscapes it is an imperative to deparadigmatize decisions makers so as to
prepare them for a world with new rules, new problems, and fast changing
problems.
One salient feature that emerge from the analysis of the history of the
world economy and its changing centre of gravity is the prominent role that
some localities/places, organized as cities, played (Attali, 2006, Ezzahid 2003,
Maddisson, 2008). This remark is especially relevant in our times where some
cities concentrate the most innovative activities (Florida, 2005). This can be
explained by the role of cities as adequate areas of emergence of new inventions,
new innovations, new ideas, new connections, unexpected synergies and so on
(Ezzahid, 2003). For all countries, it is important to develop innovative areas or
“innovative ecosystems” that are highly conducive to the creative activities, to
innovation, and to learning14.These innovative ecosystems must be appropriate
places to work in for engineers, financiers, scientists, designers, writers,
journalists, very skilled and educated workers, and all other creative agents. R.
Florida reported that in the world concentration the most extreme is the
concentration of the most cited scientists (Florida, 2005, p. 50). This prove the
informational nature of the current capitalisms founded on very skilful people
with complex, fluid, and robust enabling infrastructures such as universities,
laboratories, human networks, scientific communities that make possible the
emergence of new knowledge.
14
It is a term from (Florida, 2005).
13
6. Concluding remarks
Any player in the emerging world must be aware of the building blocks,
major trends, and main shifts of the big picture of the strategic landscape that he
or she confronts. To succeed in the new competition, each player must
understand the strategic landscape and the goals, strategies, and macro-tactics15
of other players. A deep understanding of the sources of economic, intellectual,
technological, human, social, and institutional competition/performance/power
is of prime importance.
The economic and geostrategic transformations will have unpredictable
consequences on international affairs (Dadush and Stancil, 2010). Only the good
prepared and fully aware players will be able to cope with the complexities and
the adversities of the new competition. For the good prepared new comers the
world is really flat (Friedman, 2006). For the badly prepared the world is spiky
(Florida, 2005). Preparedness depends on available human capital, the nature of
institutions, the availability and robustness of institutions, and the accuracy of
policies.
One sine qua non condition for success in the new world competition arena
is the awareness of each player of the big picture with a sufficient knowledge of
the sources of power, the emergent strategic technologies, the most important
countries/regions that will pull/push the world economy. Those that lost the big
picture will lag behind and be trivial players. That means they will be marginal,
usable in the strategies of others, poor, and finally kicked out of history.
References
Acemoglu, D., and Robinson, J.A., (2013), Why nations fail? The origins of power,
prosperity and poverty, Profile Books
Acemoglu, D., (2003), Root causes: a historical approach to assessing the role of
institutions in economic development, Finance and Development, June, pp.
27-30
Aghion, P. and Howitt, P., (1990), “A model of growth through creative destruction”,
NBER Working Paper #3223
Ahearn, R. J., (2011), Rising economic powers and the global economy: trends and
issues for congress, CRS report for Congress, August
15
A macro-tactic is a set of actions compacted to produce an effect in a limited space or time.
A macro-tactic is more than a tactic (very effect’s localized action) and less than a strategy.
14
ArtherDLittle, (2012), Shifting centers of gravity, the end of the Automotive industry
as we know it?, Url :www.adt.com/shiftinggravity
Attali, J., (….), Sept leçons de vie : survivre aux crises, Fayard
Attali, J., (2006), Une brève histoire de l’avenir, Fayard
Bacon, F. (1620), The new organon or true directions concerning the interpretation of
nature, http://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/b/bacon/francis/organon/preface.html
Berger, S., (2006), Made in monde, les nouvelles frontières de l’économie mondiale,
Nouveaux horizons
Dadush, U. and Stancil, B. (2010), The world order in 2050, Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, April
Dizard, W., Jr., (1997), Meganet: how the global communications network will
connect everyone on earth, WestviewPress, Harper Collins Publishers
Easterly, W.,
Ernest and Young, (2011), Tracking global trends, how six keys developments are
shaping the business World
Ezzahid, E., (2003), Macro-textures des systèmes productifs locaux, Revue Marocaine
d’Economie et de Droit, No. 6, Url :
http://www.fsjes.um5a.ac.ma/pdfFiles/articles/Agglomeration%20externalite%20et%20macrotexture-ezzahid.pdf
Florida, R., (2005), The world is spiky, Atlantic Monthly, October, pp.48-51
Fung, V. K., Fung, W. K., and Wind, Y. J., (2008), Competing in a flat world:
building Enterprises for a borderless World, Pearson Education, Inc.
Gallaire, H., (1998), Rapidité, connexion, intelligence : toujours plus, in OCDE,
(1998), Les technologies du XXIème siècle, Processus et périls d’un futur
dynamique,
Gereffi, G. and Lee, J., (2012), Why the world suddenly cares about global supply
chains, Journal of supply chain management, vol. 48, Nu. 3, pp.
Gershenfeld, N., (1999), When things start to think, OWL Books
Frieden, J. A., (2011), The modern capitalist world economy: a historical overview,
http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/jfrieden/files/modern_capitalist_economy__page_proofs
.pdf (consulted january 1st 2014)
Friedman, T. L., (2006), The World is flat, the globalized world in the twenty-first
century, Pearson, Penguin Books
Homer-dixon, T., (2011), “Complexity science”, Oxford leadership Journal, Vol. 2,
Issue 1, pp.
Maddison, A., (2008), The West and the Rest in the World Economy: 1000–2030
Maddisonian and Malthusian interpretations, World Economics, Vol. 9, No.
4, October–December, pp. 75-99
McKinsey Global Institute, (2013), Disruptive technologies: advances that will
transform life, business, and the global economy, Mai
15
Malik, Y., Niemeyer, A., and Ruwadi, B. (2011), Building the supply chain of the
future, in Mckinsey and company McKinsey on supply chain: selected
publications, January
Memedovic, O., (2010), Structural change in the World economy: Main features and
trends, United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Working paper
24/2009
OECD, (2012), Looking to 2060: long-term global growth prospects, OECD economic
policy papers, No. 03, November
Ohmae, K., (2005), The next global stage; challenges and opportunities in our
borderless world, Pearson education, Inc.
Ohmae, K., (1996), The Mapmaker, in Taylor, W. C., and Webber, A. M., (1996),
Going global, Viking, Penguin Books
Rifkin, J., (2011), La troisième révolution industrielle, comment le pouvoir latéral va
transformer l’énergie, l’économie et le monde, Babel
Powers, W. M., (2012), The value of value added: Measuring global engagement with
cross and value –added trade, United States International Trade
Commission, Office of Economics Working paper, November
Schaumpeter, J., (1934), The Theory of Economic Development, New York Oxford
University Press
Shangquan, G., (2000), Economic globalization: trends, risks and risk prevention,
United Nations Economic and Social Affairs, CDP Background paper No. A
Strategic Foresight Initiative, (2011), Global interdependencies, August
Storlie, C., (2011), Managing and leading in the midst of uncertainty: lessons from the
military, Oxford Leadership Journal, Vol. 2, Issue 1, january
Taleb, N. N., (2010), The Black Snow, the impact of the highly improbable, Penguin
Books
World Economic Forum, (2012), The shifting geography of global value chains:
implications for developing countries and trade policy
16