CDMA2000`s Position among other Wireless Technologies

CDMA450 Evolution Seminar
June 15, 2004, Warsaw, Poland
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
CDMA2000’s Position
among other Wireless Technologies
for WAN/MAN/LAN/PAN
Vera Kripalani
Sr. Director, QUALCOMM Incorporated
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
Demand for Wireless Broadband
•
•
•
Telemedicine
Teleworking
E-Government
• Agriculture
• Distance learning
• Public safety
• National security
• E-commerce
• Entertainment
• Applications for persons with
disabilities
• Utility applications
• Small business assistance
• Information gathering
• Tourism
Which technology standard(s) will best serve these applications?
Source: TIA, “The Economic and Social Benefits of Broadband Deployment”, October 2003
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
A “Telecom-Centric” Industry Perspective
IMT-2000 Wireless Network Technologies
Anywhere,
Anytime
Communications
The Global Standard for Wireless Communications
Source: International Telecommunications Union (ITU-R, August 31, 2000)
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
A “Net-Centric” Industry Perspective
IEEE Standards View of Wireless Network Technologies
WWAN
<15 km
802.20 (proposed)
WiMAX
MAN
New standard for
Fixed broadband
Wireless. Trying to do
for MAN what Wi-Fi
did for LAN.
Wi-Fi®
Includes 802.11a/b/g.
Products must be
Approved for
Interoperability by the
Wi-Fi Alliance.
<5 km
70 Mbit/s
802.16a/e
WLAN
<100 m
11-54 Mbit/s
802.11a/b, e, g
PAN
<10 m
~1 Mbit/s
802.15.1 (Bluetooth)
802.15.3 (UWB) *
802.15.4 (ZigBee)**
Source: International Telecommunications Union, “Birth of Broadband”, September 2003
* UWB: 100 Mbit/s
** ZigBee: 250 kbps
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
Peak Data Rates Per User
802.20
Mobility
Mobile
(Vehicular)
Pedestrian
(Nomadic)
Fixed
(Stationary)
802.16e
WWAN
2G/2.5G (IMT-2000)
cdma2000® 1xEV-DO,
Cellular
cdma2000® 1xEV-DV
WCDMA HSDPA
802.15.1
(Bluetooth)
802.16a
(WiMAX)
802.11
(WLAN)
802.15.3a
(UWB)
Bandwidth Assumptions
Bandwidth
(MHz)
2G/2.5G
1.25
1xEV-DO
1xEVDV
802.20
1.25
HSDPA
5
802.16
20
Bluetooth
UWB
0.1
1.0 3.1
10
Peak Data Rate per User (Mbits/second)
100
Commercial
Proposed
79 x 1 MHz
> 100
Source: International Telecommunications Union and WiMAX Forum
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
PAN - Bluetooth
•
•
Bluetooth is viewed by users as a short-range cable replacement technology
Market adoption is being driven by the integration of Bluetooth in handsets,
accessories, appliances, automotive, telematics, etc.
–
–
Nearly one fifth of the world's vehicles produced in 2008 will feature OEM-installed Bluetooth
hardware (Source: ABI)
Roughly 65% of Bluetooth-enabled devices are sold in Europe, 25% in Asia, and a paltry 10% in
the United States.
(Millions)
450
400
350
300
Worldwide shipments of
Bluetooth-enabled mobile devices
250
200
150
100
50
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: IDC, June 2003
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
PAN – Ultra Wideband (UWB)
•
•
•
The UWB specification is being developed by 802.15.3a in the next two years and may
impact the future market adoption of Bluetooth
There are two UWB standards proposals: Multi-band OFDM (MBOA) by Texas
Instruments and Direct Sequence Spread (DSS) Spectrum by Motorola
– The proposals are in a stalemate situation: Standards may be delayed by a year
Up to 260 million UWB chipsets are expected to be shipped by 2009 (Source: ON
World)
UWB Application Types Worldwide (2007 Estimate)
Source: Wireless Oracle
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
PAN – ZigBee
•
ZigBee will offer consumers a new way to connect devices using a short-range
wireless network technology
– ZigBee is a low-cost, low-power, low-data rate, cable/wire replacement technology
• Up to 75m range
• Data rates of 250 kbps and 20 kbps
• Multi-year battery life
• Star topology, with peer-to-peer, supporting up to 255 devices per network
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
WLAN - Wi-Fi®
• The availability of hotspots and the purchase of Wi-Fi enabled
laptops will drive most of the demand for Wi-Fi services
– By 2005, nearly all new laptops will be Wi-Fi-enabled
– By 2005, Wi-Fi hotspot coverage will remain limited (Sources: Instat/MDR and IDC):
• In 2003, around 40 to 50 thousand hotspots were counted
worldwide
• By 2007, 180 to 189 thousand hotspots are expected to be
enabled worldwide
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
WLAN - Wi-Fi®
The business case for a “data-only” wireless broadband
service is questionable.
Providing a “data only” wireless Internet access in public
areas has not generated enough profit for any operator to
consider expanding Wi-Fi coverage outside of hotspots.
• 3.3 million Wi-Fi hot spot subscribers are expected by 2007
(Source: Parks Associates)
• Only 6% of all online users have used Wi-Fi access in a public
space (Source: Jupiter Research)
• The majority of WLAN users will use Wi-Fi access less than 6
times per year (Source: Instat/MDR)
• In 2003, only 1% of all online users have directly paid a carrier for
their Wi-Fi service, with an additional 3% indirectly (e.g., hotel
bill) (Source: Instat/MDR)
• Verizon Wireless and McDonalds are cutting back on their Wi-Fi
hotspot deployments
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
WLAN - Wi-Fi®
•
Market adoption will be driven by expanded coverage, not faster data speeds
– Expanding coverage is CAPEX intensive due to the backhaul expense
– 11 Mbit/sec (802.11b) is more than sufficient for most data applications today
– 54 Mbit/sec (802.11a, g) data throughputs will be severely limited by the backhaul
•
Combining Wi-Fi access with voice services maybe necessary to sustain
demand
(Thousands)
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Worldwide Wi-Fi hotspots
Worldwide Wi-Fi users
(Millions)
25
20
15
10
5
2002
2003
Source: IDC, June 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
0
2002
2003
Source: IDC, June 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
MAN - WiMAX
• Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) expectations
– To fill in the gaps of Wi-Fi access and offer affordable broadband access
– Data rates up to 75 Mbit/s in a 20 MHz channel
–
• WiMAX will be used as a backhaul technology to feed emerging Wi-Fi
hotspot deployments and, possibly, 3G base stations
– NLOS, 256 OFDM 64-QAM, IP-centric technology
• Within the next two years, WiMAX (802.16e) claims it will offer metroarea portability for Internet access and drive carriers to consider
overlaying it in urban areas
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
Spectrum (802.11 & 802.16)
UNII
International
Licensed
1
2
ISM
US
Licensed
3
International
Licensed
4
Japan
Licensed
ISM
5
GHz
ISM: Industrial, Scientific & Medical Band – Unlicensed band (2.4 GHz & 5.7 GHz)
UNII: Unlicensed National Information Infrastructure band – Unlicensed band
WiMAX has both licensed and unlicensed options
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
MAN - WiMAX
• WiMAX is being discussed in several industry forums, with visible
and aggressive backing from a few companies such as Intel
– The IEEE 802.16 Broadband Wireless Access (BWA) standard was
approved in January 2003.
• Their long-term agenda includes the Mobile WAN market
• The WiMAX Forum’s objective is to provide the same impetus and
momentum for the 802.16 standard, as WiFi did for the 802.11
standard
• WiMAX vendors state that the first WiMAX gear will be on the market
by the end of 2004
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
Markets Targeted By WiMAX
‰ Enterprise Broadband Access
ƒ T1/E1 Replacement
ƒ Business telephony
Ch
ƒ Consumer telephony
al
W len
W gi
AN ng
‰ Residential Broadband Access
ƒ Wireless DSL/Wireless Cable
‰ 802.11 Hotspot Backhaul
‰ Mobile Network Backhaul
‰ Portable Broadband Access
ƒ WiMAX Roaming (regional)
802.16
802.11
802.11
802.11
‰ Private MAN Networks
ƒ Metro Ethernet
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
WiMAX: Economics
• WiMAX Cost of Coverage:
– WiMAX currently targets higher frequencies,
increasing capital and operating costs of
coverage.
– MMDS spectrum (2.4 – 2.5 GHZ) would require
more than four times the number of cell sites
needed for coverage compared to the cellular
band, and nearly twice the cells needed for
UMTS band.
• WiMAX Architecture – Costs
– As a WAN service WiMAX would require the same
primary macro network cost components included
in today's 3G networks: Cell Sites, Towers, RAN
Equipment, Backhaul, Routers, Interconnect,
etc.
“WiMAX
is the latest, and most hyped, generation of fixed wireless
technology in years” (Source: Pyramid)
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
WWAN – 2G & 3G
Worldwide demand for WWAN mobile telecommunications continues at a rapid
pace due to the operators’ ability to offer more value at lower prices
(Millions)
Cumulative Number of Subscribers
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2002
2003
2004
WCDMA
2005
CDMA
2006
2007
GSM
Sources: Graph: EMC World Database, March 2003
* Subscriber forecast for 2007 was derived from the average estimate from In-Stat MDR, Strategy Analytics, Ovum, iGilliott
** Strategy Analytics, October 2003
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
Spectrum Allocation
Providing affordable coverage is crucial in wireless telecommunications
The warmer (lower) frequencies are best!
WCDMA
2.1
TD-SCDMA
2.1
GSM
900
CDMA
1.7
CDMA
800
CDMA
1.9
GSM
1.8
CDMA
450
1GHz
cdma2000®
450, 800, 1.7, 1.9, 2.1
802.15.1
Bluetooth
2.4
802.11 b, g
Wi-Fi
2.4
2GHz
802.15.3a
UWB
3.1-10.6
802.16
LMDS
28-29
802.11 a, e
Wi-Fi
5.0
5GHz
11GHz
802.16a, e 802.16a, e
WiMAX
WiMAX
5.8
2-11
Licensed &
Unlicensed
Licensed Spectrum vs Unlicensed Spectrum
The use of unlicensed spectrum creates interference issues
29GHz
Licensed
Unlicensed
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
Global Revenue per Wireless Network Type
• PAN (Bluetooth & UWB)
– Around US$1.5B for Bluetooth by 2007 (Source: IDC) and US$1.7B
for UWB by 2007 (ABI)
• WLAN (Wi-Fi)
– US$4.1B by 2008 (Source: IDC)
• MAN (WiMAX)
– 2-4 million users by 2008, generating up to US$2B in access
revenues (Source: Pyramid)
• WAN (802.20)
– 30 million users worldwide by 2009 (Source: Visant Strategies)
• WWAN - Mobile (2G, 2.5G, 3G)
– Around 2.2B users worldwide, generating US$500B by 2008
(Sources: EMC & Telecompetition)
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
Global Revenue per Wireless Network Type
(Billions)
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Worldwide Revenue by 2008
PAN
LAN
MAN
WAN
Source: IDC, Pyramid, Visant Strategies, ABI, EMC, Telecompetition
WWAN
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
Deployment Timeline for WWAN Standards
Capability Enhancement
Creating and commercializing a global standard takes time
Early Discussions Begun
(~2002 - )
Digital
“4G”??
Standard began - Early 1990’s
(International)
Digital
3G
Standard began - Early 1980’s
(Regional)
Digital
2G
Standard began ~ 1970
(Country Specific)
1970
Analog
1G
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Year
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
Conclusion
• The demand for broadband services is substantial and will provide
significant economic and social benefits. IA450, 3GPP2 and CDG
should jointly promote the continued deployment of last-mile broadband
facilities.
• Yet, we must avoid repeating the fiscal meltdown that occurred due to
the over-hyping of DSL, cable modems, and 3G technologies.
– This requires understanding the proven performance and business
proposition behind each emerging broadband technology before
promoting the allocation of scarce and valuable industry resources
(e.g., regulatory, financial, engineering, manufacturing, etc.).
Contd..
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
Conclusion (Contd.)
• Rigorous simulations, tests, verifications, technology trials,
and business cases should be demonstrated before
investing time, energy and resources into finalizing the
standard for any wireless broadband technology
• IA450, CDG and 3GPP2 should cooperate to evolve
revenue-generating CDMA standards and play a key role in
driving the development of public safety and last-mile
broadband facility standards
CDMA450 Technology,
Services & Standards
June 15, 2004, Warsaw
Thank You !