Active managed Bond Portfolio

SWING HORIZON DYNAMIC
RAPPORT ANNUEL 2013
Fonds interne collectif
Swing Horizon Defensive est un fonds interne collectif lié au contrat d’assurance vie «Swing Horizon» et «Swing Horizon Spaarplan» du type N au regard de la
classification du circulaire van 08/1 du Commissariat aux Assurances (CAA). Les données relatives à la comptabilité séparée du fonds interne peuvent être consultées
auprès d’Allianz Life Luxembourg S.A., 14, boulevard Fr. Roosevelt, L-2450 Luxembourg.
Stratégie d’investissement
Swing Horizon Dynamic est un fonds interne de placement commun géré qui investit pour environ 90% dans des fonds d’actions et pour environ 10% dans des fonds
d’obligations, monétaires et d’autres fonds à faible risque. La structure et la gestion de ce fonds se dirige vers un rendement maximal avec une répartition équilibrée.
Swing Horizon Dynamic investit principalement en UCITS I et vise une allocation géographique en Europe, Amérique du Nord et Japon.
Date de lancement
2 mai 2000
Dernière valeure d’unité
Valorisation d’unités hebdomadaire
Valeure d’unité au 26/12/2013
Performance depuis 1 an
Rendement depuis date de lancement
90.294
8.79 %
-9.71 %
Sur l’année 2013, la valeur nette d’inventaire est passée de 82.995 EUR à 90.294 EUR soit une performance de 8.79%.
Market Review
In 2013, US Treasury yields, in particular in the longer-maturity segments, increased markedly. This was driven by the US Federal Reserve’s announcement to slowly
withdraw from its monthly bond purchasing programme, if the unemployment rate were to keep falling. If implemented, it would mean that demand on the bond
market will fall and longer-term yields will rise. German government bonds likewise experienced a yield increase, albeit to a lesser degree than in the US. In contrast,
the performance of euro area peripheral sovereign bonds was solidly positive. Peripheral bonds were high in demand and their spreads therefore tightened, as the
economy stabilised and the fiscal and employment backdrop improved. European credit markets also delivered positive returns. Pfandbriefe and covered bonds
generated solid returns, particularly those from Southern Europe. While high-quality corporate bonds (Investment Grade) offered only small spreads over sovereign
bonds with similar quality, they still managed to deliver a moderately positive performance. High-yield bonds continued to perform very well.
Equities experienced strong price gains, driven by robust US economic growth and the end of the recession in the euro area periphery. Equity markets suffered a
short-term setback when the emerging outlook for monetary policy tightening in the US temporarily caused uncertainty. Later on, though, equity bulls gained the
upper hand again, as economic data pointed to a stabilization of crisis-ridden European economies. Public spending cuts no longer affected economic growth and, for
the first time, unemployment fell in Southern Europe. Market sentiment also benefited from continued easy monetary policies and further policy rate cuts by the
European Central Bank.
Portfolio
In the bond segment, in the first half of the year exposure was focused on higher-quality European government bonds. Here, in addition to German and French
sovereign debt securities, we preferred Dutch and Austrian bonds. In addition, the Fund took positions in secured bonds, such as Pfandbriefe, which are very safe but
pay a spread over sovereign bonds. This decision proved beneficial as these bonds significantly gained in value after the Italian election and because of uncertainty
regarding the liquidity situation in Cyprus. Conversely, the tense political situation in Italy prompted us to reduce our position in Italian government bonds after they
had performed well up to that point. At the same time, we increased the portfolio position in Spanish bonds. In the second half of 2013, the investment focus initially
remained on higher-quality European sovereign bonds. As the situation in Southern Europe is stabilising and particularly as the economic outlook in this region is
improving, we increasingly purchased Italian and Spanish bonds. This decision was beneficial, as in the second of the year these bonds benefitted from increased
investor demand, partially experiencing significant price gains. In addition, the Fund took positions in secured bonds (e.g. Pfandbriefe) as well as high-quality
corporate bonds (investment grade rating).
In the first half of the year, trends in European equity markets were mixed. European equities initially made robust price gains against the backdrop of the economic
stabilisation unfolding in the US. However, a considerable share of these gains was forfeited later when speculations about a future tightening of monetary policy in
the United States gave rise to concerns. The German economy performed comparatively well and remained on target for growth thanks to robust exports and
burgeoning domestic consumption. In contrast, Southern European equity markets still saw prices fall because of a still uncertain situation. In this environment, one
focus was on carmakers, such as BMW and Daimler. In addition, in the financial sector, we preferred investing in insurance companies, such as Allianz or Munich Re,
while banks played a minor role in the portfolio. In order to benefit from rising global equity prices, we successfully invested in a concept, covering global equity
markets. In addition, we took a position in a fund which invests in the expansion of global infrastructure.
Early in the second half of the year, bullish trends in European equity markets gained the upper hand. German equities in particular (because of the export strength of
German companies) benefited from rising investor confidence and enjoyed high demand. Equity prices rose as a result of positive economic data in western advanced
economies as well as ample liquidity supplied by international central banks. During this period, we likewise increased our equity allocation in order to benefit from
the positive market environment. Our positioning in the automotive sector (Continental and Daimler) was particularly beneficial. A high weighting of Deutsche
Telekom in the Fund also contributed positively to performance. Furthermore, our positions in Givaudan and United Internet performed well. In contrast, relative
performance of several quality names such as SAP and Nestlé was disappointing. The same holds true for several names in the oil and oil-services sector, with the
exception of Total. While our cautious positioning in banks detracted from relative performance from a short-term perspective, this was compensated by a high
weighting of companies from the insurance sector (Munich Re).
Outlook
Historically very low returns in many high-quality sovereign bonds from advanced economies do not fully compensate for inflation, which is why their attractiveness is
limited from a return perspective. For the time being, a sharp increase in interest rates with a corresponding drop in bond prices is not very likely. Nevertheless, bond
yields will probably rise steadily against a background of an improving economic environment and a continued reduction of bond purchases by the US Federal
Reserve. Comments by leading central bankers with respect to future monetary policy could trigger stronger bond price volatility. Overall, despite low yields, highquality sovereign bonds are likely to remain important for quality-oriented investors as a stability anchor. From a return perspective, selected corporate bonds, euro
area peripheral government bonds, as well as debt securities from fundamentally robust emerging markets appear to be more attractive.
Overall, the outlook for equities is positive: economic indicators generally paint a favourable picture of the global economy, despite softening growth momentum in
the emerging markets. The US economic recovery appears to be intact and European data indicate that the region is leaving its long recession slowly behind. In
addition, high-opportunity assets, such as equities, should continue to be supported by expansionary monetary policies pursued by major central banks. Furthermore,
partly high corporate dividend yields continue to favour the equity asset class. However, equity market valuation is no longer inexpensive across the board, which is
why corporate earnings trends will become a more important driver of equities. Further equity price advances should be supported by corresponding earnings
growth, limiting the increase to single equities instead of a broad market rally. In such an environment, active management and a fundamentally driven single equity
selection should again become increasingly important for investment success.
Swing Horizon et Swing Horizon Spaarplan est un produit d’ Allianz Life Luxembourg S.A., 14, boulevard Fr. Roosevelt, L-2450 Luxembourg, Grand Duché Luxembourg.