Klima und Migration - Burg Campus Online

Klima und Migration
Publikation realisiert im Rahmen des Projektes:
“Zum Wetter … Design-Strategien zu Witterung,
Wetter, Klima. Vom Natur-Phänomen zum
Artefakt.“
Lara Bousch, Burg Giebichenstein 2016
Inhaltsverzeichnis
Phänomen
Zahlen
Kontroversen
Beispiele
Lösungsansätze
Phänomen
Zwei Jungs rudern zwischen den Überresten
einer Siedlung in Lunettes, Haiti. Ungefähr 100
Familien lebten in diesem Dorf bevor es 2006
von einem Wirbelsturm zersört wurde.
SPM
Regional key risks and
potential for risk reduction
Glaciers,
snow, ice
and/or
permafrost
Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic)
Risks for health
and well-being
Risks for ecosystems
Biological systems
Coastal erosion
and/or sea level
effects
Rivers, lakes,
floods and/or
drought
Terrestrial
ecosystems
Human and managed systems
Wildfire
Very
low
Unprecedented challenges,
especially from rate of change
Food
production
Marine
ecosystems
Risk level
Medium
Livelihoods, health
and/or economics
Very
high
Present
Near term (2030–2040)
Long term 2°C
(2080–2100) 4°C
North America
Increased damages
from wildfires
Heat-related
human mortality
Europe
Increased damages from
river and coastal floods
Increased damages
from river and coastal
urban floods
Risk level with
high adaptation
Potential for
additional Risk level with
adaptation to current adaptation
reduce risk
Asia
Increased water restrictions
Increased damages
from extreme heat
events and wildfires
Increased flood damage to
infrastructure, livelihoods
Heat-related
and settlements
human mortality
Increased droughtrelated water and
food shortage
The Ocean
Africa
Distributional
shift and reduced
fisheries catch
potential at low latitudes
Central and South America
Compounded stress
on water resources
Reduced water availability and
increased flooding and landslides
Australasia
Small islands
Reduced crop productivity and
livelihood and food security
Increased mass coral
bleaching and mortality
Reduced food production and quality
Coastal inundation
and habitat loss
Spread of vector-borne diseases
Vector- and waterborne diseases
Loss of livelihoods,
settlements, infrastructure,
ecosystem services and
economic stability
Risks for low-lying
coastal areas
Significant change in composition
and structure of coral reef systems
Increased flood damage
to infrastructure and
settlements
Increased risks to
coastal infrastructure
and low-lying
ecosystems
not assessed
not assessed
14
Figure
SPM.8
Representative
key risks
forAbschwächungspotenzial.
each region, including the potential
for risk
reductionZukunft
through adaptation
and mitigation,
as well
as limits to adaptation.
key risk is Szenaassessed as
Riskien
pro| Region,
inklusive
deren
Jedes
Risiko
(2030-2040)
und Zukunft
(2080-2100).
Für dasEach
langfristige
Skala
sehr
niedrig,
niedrig,
medium,
hochtime
und
sehr present,
hoch near
rioterm
wird
noch
unterschieden
einer Erderwärmung
vonprojected
2°C
verywird
low,mit
low,einer
medium,
highvon
or very
high.
Risk levels
are presented
for three
frames:
(here,
for einmal
2030–2040)
and long termzwischen
(here, for 2080–2100).
In the near term,
geschätzt.
Jedes
Risiko wird
in 3 Zeitschienen
dargestellt:
Gegenwart,
nahe scenarios.
und 4°C.
levels
of global mean
temperature
increase
do not diverge substantially
across
different emission
For the long term, risk levels are presented for two possible futures (2°C and 4°C global
mean temperature increase above pre-industrial levels). For each timeframe, risk levels are indicated for a continuation of current adaptation and assuming high levels of current or future adaptation.
Risk levels are not necessarily comparable, especially across regions. {Figure 2.4}
Phänomen
14
Identification of key risks was based on expert judgment using the following specific criteria: large magnitude, high probability or irreversibility of impacts; timing of impacts; persistent vulnerability
or exposure contributing to risks; or limited potential to reduce risks through adaptation or mitigation.
Summary for Policymakers
14
Representative key risks for each region for
Physical systems
Asia
human mortality
urban floods
Asia
Increased damages
Increased damages
Increased damages
from extreme heat
from extreme heat
from extreme heat
Increased
water
restrictions
events
and wildfires
Increased waterIncreased
restrictions
events
and
wildfires
Increa
Increased floodIncreased
damage to
Increased
droughtwater restrictions
eventsRepresentative
and wildfires
flood
damage
to
Increased droughtkey
risks
for
each
region
for
infras
infrastructure, livelihoods
related
water
and
Heat-related
infrastructure, livelihoods
related water and
Representative
ke
Heat-related
Physical systems
Biological
systems
Human
and
managed
systems
Representative
key
risks
for
each
region
for
and settlements
food
shortage
human
mortality
and settlements
food shortage and se
human mortality
M
an floods from wildfires
risks and
Regional key risks
andGlaciers,
Regional
snow, ice
k reduction
and/or
potential for risk reduction
permafrost
Physical
systems Terrestrial
Coastal
erosion
Rivers, lakes,
key
risks
and
and/or sea level
floods and/or
Glaciers,
ecosystems
Coastal erosion
Rivers, lakes,
effects
drought snow, ice
and/or sea level
floods
and/or
potential for riskand/or
reduction
effects
drought
permafrost
The Ocean
rctic)
for health
olar
Regions (Arctic and Antarctic) Risks
ecosystems
Africa
and well-being
Risks for ecosystems
Physical systems
Biological systems
Food
Marine
Wildfire
production
ecosystems
Glaciers,
Terrestrial
Marine
Wildfire
Rivers,
lakes,
ecosystems
ecosystems
snow,
ice
and/or
permafrost
Unprecedented challenges,
especially from rate of change
Africa
Present
Risks for health
Unprecedented challenges,
and well-being
especially from rate of change
Very
low
floods
Risk and/or
level
drought
Medium
Very
high
Very
low
Africa
Human and managed systems
Livelihoods, health
and/orFood
economics
Coastal
erosion
production
and/or sea level
effects
Risk level
Medium
Livelihoods, health
Terrestrial
and/or economics
ecosystems
Very
high
Present
Distributional
Near term (2030–2040)
Polar
Regions
(Arctic and
Antarctic) stress
Compounded stress
Compounded
stress
shift and
reduced
Compounded
Near term (2030–2040)
Risks for
health
Unprecedented challenges,
on water resources
on water resources
Long
term 2°C
fisheries catch
on
water
resources
Central
and
South
America
Risks
for
ecosystems
uth Americapotential at low latitudes
and well-being
especially from rate of change
(2080–2100) 4°C
Long term 2°C
(2080–2100) 4°C
Reduced water availability and
vailability
Potential for
rth America and
Europe
Increased damages from
increased flooding and landslides
Risk level with
es
additional Risk level with for
g and landslides North America
Europe
river and coastal floods
high adaptation adaptation to currentPotential
adaptation
Increased damages from
river and coastal floods
ated
mortality
ed
damages
ildfires
uality
oduction
Small islands Small islands
Risk level with
reduce
risk
high adaptation
Heat-related
human mortality
Nea
additional Risk level with
current adaptation
adaptation to
Australasia
Sma
Australasia
reduce risk
Increased damages
from river and coastal
Increased damages
Loss of livelihoods,
in composition
Asiachange
Loss of livelihoods, Significant
urban
floods
Heat-related
Significant
change inand
composition
from river and coastal
Reduced
crop reef
productivity
Reduced
crop
productivity
and
Asia
settlements, infrastructure,
and structure
ofand
coral
systems
human mortality
Increased
urban floods
Reduced crop productivity
anddamages
settlements, infrastructure,
structure
of
coral
from extreme heat
livelihood and food security reef systems
Increased mass coral
damages
livelihood and food
security
ecosystemIncreased
services
and services and
livelihood
and
food security
ecosystem
North
America
Europe
Increased
water
restrictions
events
and
wildfires
from
extreme
heat
Increased flood damage to
damages from Increased droughtbleaching and mortality
economicevents
stability
economic
stabilityIncreased
Increased water restrictions
and
wildfires livelihoods
Increased
flood damage to
Increased droughtinfrastructure,
related water and
Heat-related
river
andmortality
coastal
floods
Reduced food production and quality
infrastructure,
livelihoods
related water and
Heat-related
and settlements
food shortage
human
and quality
and settlements
food shortage
human mortality
Increased damages
from wildfires
Bio
Loss of livelih
settlements,
ecosystem se
economic sta
Increased damages
from river and coastal
urban floods
Increased risks Increased
to
risks to
coastal
infrastructure
Increased
flood
damage
coastal
infrastructure
Increased flood damage
Africa
Increased
damages
Africa
low-lying
to infrastructure
and
and
infrastructure
and
Vector-toand
water- and
Vector- and waterVectorand
waterfrom
extreme
heatlow-lying
ecosystems
settlements
butional
Risks for low
Risks
for
low-lying
Compounded stress
Coastal inundationborne diseases
ecosystems
settlements
Risks for low-lying
bornerestrictions
diseases
Compounded
stress
nd reduced
Increased water
borne on
diseases
events and wildfires
waterSpread
resourcesof vector-borne
diseases
Incr
coastal area
coastal
areas
and
habitat
loss
Central
and
South
America
orne
diseases
on
water
resources
coastal areas
es catch
Central and South America
infr
tial at low latitudes
Reduced water availability andReduced water availability and
and
increased flooding and landslides
Ocean
increased flooding and landslides
not assessed
not assessed
Small islands
Loss of livelihoods,
Reduced crop productivity and
settlements,
Reduced crop productivity
and infrastructure,
livelihood and food security livelihood and food security
ecosystem services and
sed mass coral
The Ocean
economic stability
hing and mortality
Reduced food production and quality
Reduced food production and quality
Australasia
Small islands
Australasia
Loss of Significant
livelihoods, change in composition
Significant change in composition
and structure
of coral reefand
systems
settlements,
infrastructure,
structure of coral reef systems
ecosystem services and
economic stability
Africa
Phänomen
Figure
SPM.8the|forpotential
Representative
risks adaptation
for
each region,
including
thewell
potential
risk
reduction
through
adaptation
uding
the
potential
risk reduction
through
and mitigation,
as
as limits
to
adaptation.
Each
keyIncreased
risk
isrisksassessed
Distributional
region,
including
for riskkey
reduction
through
adaptation
and mitigation,
as for
well
as
limitsIncreased
tostress
adaptation.
Each
key and
risk mitiga
isasasse
risks to
to
Compounded
coastal
infrastructure
Increased
flood
damage
coastal infrastructure
Increased flood damage
andframes:
reduced present,
very
low,shift
low,
medium,
high
ornear
very
high.(here,
Risk
levels
areandpresented
three
time
frames:
present,
term
for
ed for
three
time
term
for 2030–2040)
andfor
long
term
(here,
for 2080–2100).
In
the (here,
near
term,
projected
andnear
low-lying
to infrastructure
and
and low-lying
to infrastructure
and
on
water
resources
are
presented
for
three
time
frames:
present,
term
(here,
for
2030–2040)
and
long
term
(here,
for
2080–2100).
In
the2030–2040)
near term, pa
Vector- andnear
waterVectorwaterfisheries
catch
Central
and
South
America
ecosystems
ecosystems
settlements
settlements
Risks for low-lying
Risks for
low-lying
al inundation
14
of vector-borne diseases
Spread of vector-borne
potentialdiseases
at lowSpread
latitudes
borne diseases
borne diseases
coastal areas
coastal areas
Basierend auf Feldaktivitäten
des Roten Kreuzes konstatierte
man, dass mehr Menschen
wegen Umweltkatastrophen
gezwungen seien ihre Heimat
zu verlassen als durch Krieg.
International Federation of Red Cross and Red
Crescent Societies 2001
There are more floods
now and the river
banks are being washed
away faster. There
is nowhere to go.
My land is in the river,
I have nothing now.
Intsar Husain, Antar Para, north-western
Bangladesh, 2007
http://luminocity3d.org/
WorldCity/#3/20.72/21.62
http://www.unicef.org/
sowc2012/urbanmap/
Bangladesh, Dakha. Ein Slum neben der
Eisenbahnschienen.
Phänomen
Kontroversen
The millions of lives devastated by
disasters is more often a consequence
of bad man-made structuresand
policies, than the forces of mother
nature. A flood is not in itself a disaster,
the catastrophic conse-que§nces
happen when people are neither
prepared nor protected when it hits.
Jan Egeland, Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugee Council
(NRC)
And since there was the
war, we did not receive
any support from the
government. Therefore,
there are combined
factors that made us
suffer: droughts and war.
If war did not exist, then
we might have been able
to stay, but now that the
land is looted,
there is no way for us to
claim it.
Elderly farmer from Somalia, interviewed at
Nakivale Settlement, Uganda*
climate refugee/evacuee
Brown (2008)
climate change refugees
Docherty/Gianni (2009)
environmental/development dispacee
Dun & al. EACH-FOR (2007) climatigration
chlimate change induced
Bronen (2010)
displacement
change exile
environmental refugee climate
Kälin/Schrepfer (2012)
Byravan/Rajan (2006)
climate change refugee
Jacobson (1988)
Docherty/Gianni (2009)
environmental refugee
Myers (1993)
environmentally-induced
environmental refugee
El Hinnawi (1985)
migration
Hugo (2008)
human mobility
Warner (2011)
forced environmental migrant
Renaud & al. (2007)
migration influenced by
ecomigration
environmental change
Wood (1996/2007)
Foresight (2011)
environmental migrant
IOM (1996/2007)
Entwicklung der Termini im Kontext der
Klimamigration.
https://vimeo.
com/147531290
Social Science Research for Understanding
Climate Change Migration
Kontroversen
Zahlen
Im Winter von 2009-10 wurde der
charakteristisch raue Winter der Mongolei sogar
den einheimischen Tieren zu viel.
Rund 8 Millionen Tiere starben.
25 Mio. 1990 environmental refugees
Myers
24 Mio. 2002 durch Hochwasser, Hungersnöten
und anderen Umweltfaktoren Vertriebene
UNHCR
25 Mio. 2002 Binnenvertriebene durch
Naturkatastrophen
UNHCR
25-60 Mio. 2009 Migrationsbewegung durch
Klimawandel
WBGU
38 Mio. 2010 Vertriebene durch klimatische
Gründe
IOM
50 Mio. 2010 Umeltflüchtlinge
El-Hinnawi
150 Mio. 2050 environmental refugees
Myers
200 Mio. 2050 Umweltflüchtlinge
Stern
Zahlen
Zahlen
Zahlen
Beispiele
Alexandro Grassani
https://vimeo.com/142620739
Quellen
IPCC (Intergovernmental panel on climate change); Synthesis Report
2014
The Nansen Initiative, 12 lessons learned 2015
Greenpeace; Universität Hamburg; Klimaflüchtlinge, die verleugnete
Katastrophe; März 2007
IOM (International Organisation for Migration);
World Migration Report; 2015
Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge;
Working paper 45; 2012
Bundeszentrale für Politische Bildung; Hamburgisches
Weltwirtschaftsinstitut; Thomas Hummitzsch; Kurzdossier Nr. 15,
Klimawandel und Migration
Alle Bilder; Alexander Grassani