Forecasting a Company´s Innovation Strategy based on Its Merger
Transcription
Forecasting a Company´s Innovation Strategy based on Its Merger
Forecasting a Company´s Innovation Strategy based on Its Merger & Acquisition Activities Elena Aminova +49(0)176 68060581 | [email protected] What is Innovation Strategy? „Strategic fit“: any company striving for success needs to develop, implement and follow a strategy, with innovation strategy being part of an overall strategy. Ansoff (1967) Innovation strategy exists beforehand as text and/or plan Company´s moves are driven by context, business environment and current needs. Explanations and setting company´s moves in line with other activities is often made ad hoc and ex post. Mintzberg (1998) Innovation strategy cannot be developed in a structured formalized process 21.07.2015 Elena Aminova | Back and Forth - Erfahrungen und Prospektiven What is Ínnovation Strategy? “a selection basis for innovation activities in the operational innovation process, understood in terms of strategic goals, formulated to create and hold the aspired competitive position” Sauber (2003) 21.07.2015 Elena Aminova | Back and Forth - Erfahrungen und Prospektiven Ínnovation Strategy is normally a big secret… How is it possible to get insights? 21.07.2015 Elena Aminova | Back and Forth - Erfahrungen und Prospektiven To the problem: The constitution of an organisational path Company may not have an articulated strategy, but judging by existing paths provides a plausible basis for forecasting Opportunities Making choice: emerging paths Path, „next moves“? Technological potential of sourced technologies. What is the possible synergie? Puzzle effect: compatibility of sourced technologies with each other Forecasting of innovative products / applications Relation to a Source: Sydow (2009), as supplemented by Schreyögg (2011) and Aminova 21.07.2015 company´s vision /mission /philosophy Elena Aminova | Back and Forth - Erfahrungen und Prospektiven WHY MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS? • Outside-in analysis of a deal based on publicly available information • Extra insights for market players and competitors • Anticipate emerging markets Source: http://www.dailydooh.com/archives/103592 21.07.2015 Elena Aminova | Back and Forth - Erfahrungen und Prospektiven WHY MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS? • Ways to expand: through its in-house R&D; by building cooperations, networks and partnerships with related companies; using open innovations; through mergers and acquisitions • Strategic investments (grow and develop) vs financial investments (get richer) • M&As as a “quick” way to source new technologies and ready products • M&A implicitly carries a potential to envisage a new product/service ; it can therefore be treated as an „image of the future“ (Germ. Zukunftsbild) and justifies our focus from the perspective of future studies Information about M&As undertaken by strategic investors can be used to forecast acquirer´s innovation agenda 21.07.2015 Elena Aminova | Back and Forth - Erfahrungen und Prospektiven Proposed Solution Forecasting Innovation pathways (as opposed to strategy) as a compromise solution Robinson et al (2013). P. 270 21.07.2015 Elena Aminova | Back and Forth - Erfahrungen und Prospektiven Expected results 1. Contribute to non-econometric forecasting methodologies 2. Outline innovation pathways of focal companies 3. Provide grounded predictions about upcoming innovations and moves based on analysis of M&A deals 21.07.2015 Elena Aminova | Back and Forth - Erfahrungen und Prospektiven References • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Ahuja, G., & Katila, R. (2001). Technological Acquisitions and the Innovation Performance of Acquiring Firms: A Longitudinal Study. Strategic Management Journal, 3, pp. 197-220. Ansoff, I., Stewart, J. (1967). Strategies for a Technology-based business. Harvard business review. 1967, Vol.45(6), pp. 71-83 Armstrong, J. S. (1978). Long-Range Forecasting: From Crystall Ball To Computer. New York: New York: Wiley. Bannert, V. (2003). Technology sourcing via acquisitions – an integrated technology due diligence process. In H. Tschirky, H.-H. Jung, & P. Savioz, Technology and Innovation On the Move. Zürich: Verlag Industrielle Organisation. Bergek, A., Berggren, C., Magnusson, T., & Hobday, M. (2013). Technological discontinuities and the challenge for incumbents firms: Deconstruction, disruption or creative accumulation. in Press: Research Policy. BusinessDictionary.com. (n.d.). Innovation Strategy. Retrieved 04 01, 2015, from Business Dictionaty: http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/innovationstrategy.html Coates, J. F., Mahaffie, J. B., & Hines, A. (1994). Technological Forecasting: 1970-1993. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 47, pp. 23-33. Coates, V., Farooque, M., Klavans, R., Lapid, K., Linstone, H. A., Pistorius, C., et al. (2001). On the Future of Technological Forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 67, pp. 1-17. Cuhls, K. (2011). Schnittstellen von Foresight und Innovationsmanagement. In V. Tiberius, & (Hrsg), Zukunftsorientierung in der Betriebswirtschaftslehre (pp. 189-199). Gabler Verlag | Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden Gmb. Hitt, M. A., Hoskisson, R. E., Ireland, D. R., & Harrison, J. S. (1991, September). Effects of acquisitions on R&D inputs and outputs. Academy of Management Journal, 34(3), p. 693(14). Ledbetter, D. (2015, 4 13). Why the Ad Tech Industry Is Consolidating Like Crazy. Retrieved 04 13, 2015, from Venturebeat: http://venturebeat.com/2015/04/13/whythe-ad-tech-industry-is-consolidating-like-crazy/ Lodden, I. (2012). Knowledge transfer in mergers and acquisitions. A case analysis of Cisco. University of Agder: Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences. Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S. C., & Hyndman, R. J. (1998). Forecasting Methods and Applications. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. OECD. (2010). OECD Innovation strategy. Getting a Head Start On Tomorrow. Paris: OECD. pwc. (2013, January). US Technology M&A Insights . Retrieved 01 23, 2015, from PriceWaterhouseCoopers: http://www.pwc.com/en_US/us/transactionservices/publications/assets/pwc-us-technology-mergers-acquisitions.pdf Rossi, M., Yedidia, S. R., & Amos, T. (2013). Mergers and acquisitions in the hightech industry: a literature review. International Journal of Organizational Analysis, 21(1), pp. 66-82. Roush, W. (2012, 5 3). Google’s Rules of Acquisition: How to Be an Android, Not an Aardvark . Retrieved 4 13, 2015, from Xconomy: http://www.xconomy.com/sanfrancisco/2012/03/05/googles-rules-of-acquisition-how-to-be-an-android-not-an-aardvark/ Sauber, T. (2003). The Innovations Strategy Development Process Based on Innovation Architecture. In H. Tschirky, H.-H. Jung, & P. Savioz, Technology and Innovation on the Move (pp. 273-284). Zürich: Verlag Industrielle Organisation. Schreyögg, G., Sydow, J. (2011). Organizational Path Dependence: A Process View. Organization Studies, 32(3), pp. 321–335 Steger, U., & Kummer, C. (2007). Why Merger and Acquisition (M&A) Waves Reoccur - The Vicious Circle from Pressure to Failure. Retrieved 01 15, 2015, from IMD International: https://www.imd.org/research/publications/upload/Steger_Kummer_WP_2007_11.pdf Watts, R. J., & Porter, A. L. (1997). Innovation Forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 56(1), pp. 25-47. 21.07.2015 Elena Aminova | Back and Forth - Erfahrungen und Prospektiven Thank you for your attention! 21.07.2015 Elena Aminova | Back and Forth - Erfahrungen und Prospektiven